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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
The large-scale setup & QPF look impressive enough in general to even go insofar as to say that if the main precipitation type were to be sleet for the duration of the event (as we've seen many times before) there actually could be enough of it to trigger winter storm warnings based on IP alone and little-no snow accum, but I'd still like to get a few days closer to the event before delving into specifics, this is just where my head is on that atm.
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The 6z EPS track is pretty classic for big NC hits that we've seen with the surface low sliding up the coast like that. Just assuming that track were to verify I would expect this to be a bit colder aloft and at the surface compared with what the models are actually showing. I'm not sure they're really handling the thermal profiles very well yet either. The GFS was awful with several events last winter not catching on until we were 24 hours or less out to the cold air and the FV3 we haven't seen in an event like this so it remains to be seen how it performs. It's interesting to me that the Euro is taking the 850 low well to the south while the GFS has it in TN before a transfer occurs and the FV3 has it all the way up into Kentucky... I'm just not buying the 850 low tracking that far north like the GFS is indicating.
 
Rain Cold said:
We'll get some sleet pellets at the onset probably. And if you squint real hard, you might see one or two of those fast falling wet snowflakes that make you wonder whether it was really a snowflake at all or just a really big raindrop. The writing's on the wall with this one. There's still a needle to be threaded, but it's getting smaller and smaller with the eroding eastern edge of each new clown map.
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If we can't do better than some sleet pellets with this than we suck.

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_fh120_trend (1).gif
 
snowlover91 said:
The 6z EPS track is pretty classic for big NC hits that we've seen with the surface low sliding up the coast like that. Just assuming that track were to verify I would expect this to be a big colder aloft and at the surface compared with what the models are showing. I'm not sure they're really handling the thermal profiles very well yet. The GFS was awful with several events last winter not catching on until we were 24 hours or less out to the cold air and the FV3 we haven't seen in an event like this so it remains to be seen how it performs. It's interesting to me that the Euro is taking the 850 low well to the south while the GFS has it in TN before a transfer occurs and the FV3 has it all the way up into Kentucky... I'm just not buying the 850 low tracking that far north like the GFS is indicating.
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If the 850s were to be south then what the globles modles are showing, than the wrap around would be all snow. I don't understand why north Bama and South central TN isn't getting any snow?
 
nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png
Once again someone beat me to it, but look how far south this is. DANG
 
Jessy89 said:
Isn’t the nam the most accurate come Thursday?
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NAM and accurate, should never be in the same sentence together! But you look at it for its temp profiles!!
 
Sub freezing 850’s were also tucked further south at hour 84..I love getting NAM’d
 
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