• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
Yeah you can easily have a winter storm analog but the outcome sensibly is much different, I expect this event to be a lot warmer overall, no way we're getting into the 10s during this storm here lol.
Click to expand...

Based on accumulation amounts at temperatures like that though, this may be a much wetter system, which might help out. What were QPF values like in Jan 88? There must've been some incredible ratios!
 
FFC:
LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
The main concern for the long term period is the potential
for a winter mix of precipitation across portions of the
forecast area this coming weekend into Monday, most so
across portions of the ne Mountains.
The GFS and European are similar in developing surface low pressure
along the Gulf Coast states and moving it to the Atlanta coast
through Monday. Deep moisture is forecast to move over the area
Friday night with a rather strong surface ridge of high pressure
nosing down the eastern Appalachians providing a strong overrunning
flow. The question will be is how cold the airmass will be through
this period over the far ne especially the mountains. For the most
part, a cold rain can be expected. However a period of a winter mix
is possible of sleet and/or snow and this will depend greatly on
how cold the airmass is over the NE counties. Confidence is low
for any significant accumulations of sleet and snow and it will
be a watch and monitor of future model runs to see how this system
might develop. As a side note, the Canadian model is still the warmest
and all rain.

The associated upper system moves to the area late Sunday and Sunday
night giving some potential for a Rain/Snow mix Sunday night into
Monday. Any amounts with the upper system are expected to be light.
 
Those basing any hope with the NAM at this range as to track or strength are doing it at their own peril. Thursday night I will start paying attention to its Thermal Profiles which is does excellent on inside 48 hours
 
Again this is the very long range Nam, it Has to be taken with a grain of salt for sure, so the “noise” at this range Has to be watched but that’s all it is right now. “NOISE”
As you all no I’m not a huge fan of models trying to figure out temperatures especially dealing with CAD events. The. NAM is not to be really trusted, at this range, however it’s thermal profiles usually do the best out of most if not all models (in cad events). Now at this range the long range, we have plenty of time to see how we are just as we get closer however look at how much different and better in my opinion it’s handling the dewpoints and the wedge with the high-pressure already building in with precipitation not even close to us yet. Noticed how high pressure is starting to push down lower TD and even more importantly than that it’s doing it well before we even remotely have a chance to see any precipitation, and to me that is absolutely crucial in CAD events. FDE98461-8E8A-48EF-8D27-B81B1D175455.pngD0DCE7F0-C465-4758-8AD2-E50B519D4414.png7EE5A77A-DB8F-425F-A8B8-548D40475F0D.pngD8880164-DD1C-43AA-8F21-BF10D117C6CA.png
 
The NAM gets a bad reputation outside of 60 hours because it is prone to large errors at times but it's also worth noting that it can be useful in picking up on trends that the future global suite's may also show. IMO the NAM temp profiles match more with what you would expect to see from a Gulf Coast track like the globals depict... but we have plenty of time to track it and see once it gets in range.
 
deltadog03 said:
Again this is the very long range Nam, it Has to be taken with a grain of salt for sure, so the “noise” at this range Has to be watched but that’s all it is right now.
As you all no I’m not a huge fan of models trying to figure out temperatures especially dealing with CAD events. The. NAM is not to be really trusted however it’s thermal profiles usually do the best out of most if not all models. Now at this being the long range, we have plenty of time to see how we are just as we get closer however look at how much different and better in my opinion it’s handling the dewpoints and the wedge with the high-pressure already building in with precipitation not even close to us yet. Noticed how high pressure is starting to push down lower TD and even more importantly than that it’s doing it well before we even remotely have a chance to see any precipitation, and to me that is absolutely crucial in CAD events. View attachment 8245View attachment 8246View attachment 8247View attachment 8248
Click to expand...
Chris Ik is that good or bad thing? Don’t we need high to move with low pressure?
 
Snowflowxxl said:
NAM was spot on last year for the early December storm. Two very different things but it does hit occasionally
Click to expand...

This is a much more dynamic and larger storm. Last year was an overrunning event with a moist southwest flow. I'd at least wait until the NAM 3km is online before taking the NAM seriously.
 
14F6AE73-2D93-4087-A21A-2CF07CD986AA.jpeg Here is GFS, notice how it takes much longer for the “feed” to get established. Doesn’t do it until sometime Saturday when precip is arriving. Again noise for now, but something to watch.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Would be funny if the models go farther and farther south the next couple of days, and then come back NW.
Click to expand...
images
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top