• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

I’m cautiously optimistic with this setup here because I sit in prime upstate CAD territory. We’re not waiting on cold to spill over the mountains. I’m ok with where my area sits at the moment. Even just south of 85
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah man that usual line that runs NE to SW from Roanoke Rapids thru Raleigh is going to be in play.... several of us, you that RC guy, snowlover, Shane going to be hurting our eyes staring at CC radar hoping it's sliding E/SE Lol
Click to expand...

Yeah I'll likely be on the outside looking in as a lot will unless we can get the 850 low to stay south like the Euro. Still an interesting storm to track and there is a lot of potential for this to trend colder rather than warmer as we get closer to the event... that 850 low is our key. It needs to track through Central AL to central GA or even south of there for the rest of NC to have a shot.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I still think January 1988 is one of the best analogs we have for this event, the high placement, intensity, and juxtaposition & track of the Gulf surface low are all ridiculously similar except out gulf low will be a bit stronger this time and it's gonna be a lot warmer in this storm w/ arguably a lot less snow from RDU-CLT & points SEward

View attachment 8239
View attachment 8240
Click to expand...
Track is similar but the strength of the cold must be way different. The 88 storm was super cold in the mid south/TN Valley. This one looks like mostly rain for us. In Nashville most of the snow fell at around 20 degrees in Jan 88.
 
Coach B said:
Track is similar but the strength of the cold must be way different. The 88 storm was super cold in the mid south/TN Valley. This one looks like mostly rain for us.
Click to expand...

Yeah you can easily have a winter storm analog but the outcome sensibly is much different, I expect this event to be a lot warmer overall, no way we're getting into the 10s during this storm here lol.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah I'll likely be on the outside looking in as a lot will unless we can get the 850 low to stay south like the Euro. Still an interesting storm to track and there is a lot of potential for this to trend colder rather than warmer as we get closer to the event... that 850 low is our key. It needs to track through Central AL to central GA or even south of there for the rest of NC to have a shot.
Click to expand...
I've already accepted all rain imby

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
I've already accepted all rain imby

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
We'll get some sleet pellets at the onset probably. And if you squint real hard, you might see one or two of those fast falling wet snowflakes that make you wonder whether it was really a snowflake at all or just a really big raindrop. The writing's on the wall with this one. There's still a needle to be threaded, but it's getting smaller and smaller with the eroding eastern edge of each new clown map.
 
Rain Cold said:
We'll get some sleet pellets at the onset probably. And if you squint real hard, you might see one or two of those fast falling wet snowflakes that make you wonder whether it was really a snowflake at all or just a really big raindrop. The writing's on the wall with this one. There's still a needle to be threaded, but it's getting smaller and smaller with the eroding eastern edge of each new clown map.
Click to expand...
Thinking a 33 degree rain event for RDU like last December?
 
Shawn said:
Last 5 runs of the GFS including current for the same time-frame:
View attachment 8222

Going to take a huge change to keep the WAA away from the majority of SC. Like hundreds of miles or something South.
Click to expand...
It’s cool , because the high pressure has trended stronger every run. 1039 on latest run!
 
CyclonicFury said:
Thinking a 33 degree rain event for RDU like last December?
Click to expand...
We might do a bit better than that this year. Maybe 32.5 and rain? There should be at least a period of mix here, assuming the high is there and CAD develops as modeled. It's always underrepresented at this lead. However, with this thing wanting to stall just off of the NC coast, just onshore, or move northward along the coast, that is not a favorable track for RDU snow events most of the time, especially in marginally cold air situations. We need it to keep moving east and not take on a substantial north component.
 
Webberweather53 said:
6z EPS is virtually the same as we've seen most runs of late (minus yesterday's north runs).
Pretty ideal low track for the NC piedmont from the Gulf coast to just offshore Wilmington & Hatteras, just has to be cold enough...
View attachment 8241

View attachment 8242
Click to expand...

Just looking at those 2 maps I would argue for a definite colder trend with the temps especially in the beginning.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We really won't have an idea on this yet for a while to come but I'd wager this could be quite a sleet fest for someone in the broad transition zone which climatologically tends to be Charlotte-RDU corridor
Click to expand...

The large-scale setup & QPF look impressive enough in general to even go insofar as to say that if the main precipitation type were to be sleet for the duration of the event (as we've seen many times before) there actually could be enough of it to trigger winter storm warnings based on IP alone and little-no snow accum, but I'd still like to get a few days closer to the event before delving into specifics, this is just where my head is on that atm.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top