• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

griteater said:
CMC Ens goes to this

sLWcGlU.png
Click to expand...
I like the fact that the ridge north of AK doesn't cut off. Hopefully it doesn't roll over. Anyway, looks good. Should have some energy to work with in the STJ with that look. Hopefully, it can remain suppressed.
 
iGRXY said:
AT this point I think it's not a matter of if, but when we get a legit winter storm here in the south. Now granted nothing is guaranteed in life, but this basically house money at this point if the progression of the pattern continues like it is doing so far. We would have cold air to the west, confluence/CAD and cold air to the north. wave after wave of energy rolling through, blocking over top to shift the storm track south. I think this time next week (maybe sooner) we will have a storm to track. Now whether that's Ice or snow remains to be seen, but I think the odds are through the roof right now.
Click to expand...
Let’s not get too excited. Remember there’s a good reason our snow climo isn’t above but a few inches a year .. cause it’s just damn hard to get snow in the south. There’s always more fail routes then there are success routes. I certainly like where the trends are going though in terms of some sort of winter weather in an area in the south east or mid Atlantic.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Let’s not get too excited. Remember there’s a good reason our snow climo isn’t above but a few inches a year .. cause it’s just damn hard to get snow in the south. There’s always more fail routes then there are success routes. I certainly like where the trends are going though in terms of some sort of winter weather in an area in the south east or mid Atlantic.
Click to expand...
Agreed. As Webb noted earlier the pattern we are going into improves our odds, but there’s plenty of times where the perfect pattern doesn’t translate to winter storms
 
Chazwin said:
Agreed. As Webb noted earlier the pattern we are going into improves our odds, but there’s plenty of times where the perfect pattern doesn’t translate to winter storms
Click to expand...
Difference is whether or not the perfect pattern has any type of staying power. As of today and again this is as of today it looks like it does. You keep this pattern for 3-4 weeks and somebody will score. It may not be us in the Carolinas, could very easily be mid south, the deep south and Mississippi valley, heck you get too much blocking and drop too much cold air and the gulf coast or coastal regions of the SE will score. Right now I think the odds are somebody, not everybody, will see some type of winter storm within the next 3-4 weeks. Just not sure on who and we won't know that until there's something to actually track. That's really my point. Not guaranteeing snow for everybody lol.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
What do y’all think of this?
163528528756496327c189bf2174f465.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I would be curious to see how that would look if you throw the very -AO into the mix. A number of those dates were at time when the AO was positive to neutral. Right now the AO is almost to -3 and looks to stay below -1.5 for the foreseeable future. Also one would have to throw the MJO into the mix. It’s going into a mode that favors muted SER
 
Does the monster low in the Plains early next week, shuffle up the pattern and make it more favorable?? Looks like a storm of that caliber, may have been what the models were missing and or making for the wild run to run swings?
 
griteater said:
Trends today nudged in the direction of less SE ridging, but it's always lurking in La Nina....small differences in the height pattern go a long way and there will be plenty of back and forth moves going forward with the model runs
Click to expand...
You need a little ridge to take suppression off the table for a good storm in the SE. It’s a razor fine line!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Does the monster low in the Plains early next week, shuffle up the pattern and make it more favorable?? Looks like a storm of that caliber, may have been what the models were missing and or making for the wild run to run swings?
Click to expand...
It is the tablesetter that starts up the pattern change.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Does the monster low in the Plains early next week, shuffle up the pattern and make it more favorable?? Looks like a storm of that caliber, may have been what the models were missing and or making for the wild run to run swings?
Click to expand...
I believe it is. It cuts across the Plains and through the Ohio Valley and then helps to set up the 50/50 low
 
Tarheel1 said:
You need a little ridge to take suppression off the table for a good storm in the SE. It’s a razor fine line!
Click to expand...
I don't even have the word 'suppression' in my vocabulary. You could have lows tracking from Mexico City to Havana, and it wouldn't bother me a bit. Give me all the cold you got. We'll find some moisture in that Gulf
 
Chazwin said:
I believe it is. It cuts across the Plains and through the Ohio Valley and then helps to set up the 50/50 low
Click to expand...
This kind of reminds me of the big pattern changing storms of November of 1989 and again in 2010. Both had lots of rain and the 1989 event was a major severe outbreak. Next week should have severe with it too but not in the CAD areas.
 
JHS said:
This kind of reminds me of the big pattern changing storms of November of 1989 and again in 2010. Both had lots of rain and the 1989 event was a major severe outbreak. Next week should have severe with it too but not in the CAD areas.
Click to expand...
Those are both years that I’ve seen similarities in the models to those patterns.
 
SD said:
If you play your cards right here you send energy out of the SW shear it while bringing secondary energy out of the arctic and you can theoretically get a similar result to Dec 2010
Click to expand...
It's possible I guess that we get the latter of Dec to be a lot like 1989 too. That big storm right before Christmas though would leave most of us if we got another low to take that same track. Wilmington got down to 0 one morning after that big storm. Only cirrus cloud cover kept many other places going that low.
 
SD said:
If you play your cards right here you send energy out of the SW shear it while bringing secondary energy out of the arctic and you can theoretically get a similar result to Dec 2010
Click to expand...
For sure. ?

ecmwf_z500_vort_namer_fh222-240.gif

If we are staring at this potential in another 4-5 days, it's five-alarm time. Heck, we'll probably have already witnessed some of those epic Dec. 2010 euro runs by that time....
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top