Brent
Member
So close. This timeframe definitely has my interest here though 
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
starsfan68
Member
don't trust he GFS.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Actually very false. I have not mentioned what I think the weather would be like on Christmas day one time. Try again.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
0z Euro at hour 240 and GFS at hour 240
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
0z EPS coming in warmer than 12z through 240
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Although we've seen some changes for the worse on the models in the shorter-term (as I explained earlier yesterday), the overall evolution looks better as we get to the middle of December. Namely, the location of the blocking ridge to our north is a little more favorable for producing a coastal storm for the Carolinas, w/ the center of the +z500a being closer to the north shore of Labrador vs Baffin Island, as it was in earlier model forecasts.
ATLwxfan
Member
The SER firmly entrenched for the duration of the 06z gfs. This “models don’t know how to handle pattern changes” is harder to believe with each run.
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tennessee storm
Member
more likely be right...What a premature thing to do by accuweather.
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what pattern change ? Lol
Just woke up and skipped last nights runs, they weren’t that bad honestly, in fact seemingly sped up a little on modeling, change trickling back to around day 7-8, we’ve certain delayed the pattern, but even with the +PNA event last winter, it was seemingly rushed on NWP on to be pushed back, just common NWP issues, sucks that we’re not gonna get a major chunk of the TPV under the block initially but models are dialing in on cold seeping in from the Alaskan ridge. Not great runs, but not bad runs from the 00z EPS and 06z GEFS.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Very nice
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Glad I said the 15-25th on that Twitter post lol as the window, figured it maybe might be a little rushed but it was starting to suck me in a little, because runs got better before it just backed off
bigstick10
Member
No, considering my lowest low in the next 15 days is 41, I don't think so.
Do you think this is just going to keep getting pushed out? Or is it a matter of not if but when?
The way the TPV escapes back to the other side of the northern hemisphere in the frames following this one is disgusting. It had nowhere else to go, yet it went. 
Siberia already had the good chunk of the cold air. I was ok with my small chunk. But no, they wanted it all, and they got it all.
That’s a typical Niña look
That is an ugly, ugly, animation! But that storm track tho??
I made a comment about this a few days ago when it looked like all of the cold air was going back upstream instead of downstream under the block. I thought it was just bad model physics. Another nail in the coffin for Bastardi’s bathtub sloshing theory.
Looking out to day 10, the latest GFS has lost the (great Lakes - transitioning to Hudson Bay) low. That helps establish the better pattern to pull cold air eastward. Side note: we don't tend to talk anymore about the Hudson Bay low effects on weather. I think it's because it gets set because of a -NAO. But nevertheless, seeing it is a good thing.
6z GFS at day 10:
0z GFS:
0z Euro:
Interested to see if it pops back up at 12z on the GFS and continues on the euro.
6z GFS at day 10:
0z GFS:
0z Euro:
Interested to see if it pops back up at 12z on the GFS and continues on the euro.
I remember that the Hudson Bay low use to be a term you would hear all the time on the Weather Channel back in the 90s, but I honestly haven’t heard in there in years. It does a couple things… first a stronger low can help steer disturbances and pieces of energy around well to the south of it…the deeper the low, the further south it pushes the track. Also it can act as a cold air source as well. It being in place prevents Canada from getting flooded with mild Pacific air and allows for more in the way of homegrown cold air masses… this can be certainly be helpful the deeper we go into the month and closer to peak climo as you don’t necessarily need an airmass of Siberian origin to get winter storms in the south.. especially when there is strong blocking
Edit: for example both the January 1988 and February 2004 storms had a well established Hudson Bay low. Obviously those are two very different set ups, but it goes to show you that there are definitely different ways to get the job done when the Pacific is far from perfect.
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