In fairness many of this have been asking this question for as long as there have been message boards. In all seriousness though, it does have some benefit… typically it does very well in the 3-5 day range. It just seem very bipolar the further out in time you go.
Imo, it will be difficult to top 13-14 winter. -epo for most of the winter. I would like to see a few southern sliders so we can have some opportunity at winter?
To get so much agreement among members that heights north of Alaska are +1.5 sigma at hour 360+ is absolutely nuts. Massive -EPO on the horizon.
The EPO chart from the Euro run caught my eye here
Man it sure was warm down here around Winfield today though. Like a spring day.
2014 was stupid cold for a stretch. That’s the pinnacle for modern cold goobers. Those mornings where you wake up and it’s 6 degrees and the sky just looks different. Cold haze. Then you wake up the next morning and it’s 8 degrees. Everybody talks about how they hate dry cold but I don’t. Those mornings hit different.
Early Jan 2018 is the one that stands out to me. There were some places like Greenville, NC that recorded it's coldest 12 day stretch or so of any winter period ever, dating back to the late 1800's. People were skating on ponds and creeks. Hard to imagine we will ever see those kinds of things again, but who knows. I made sure to take pictures / videos during that stretch of stuff frozen everywhere
Absolutely, 100% agree. The -EPO alone has failed us many times. That said it’s good to have the offensive line on the field, if the QB(the PNA) and the wide outs(the shortwaves) act right maybe we we get a few TDs.The EPO chart from the Euro run caught my eye here
I think expressing interest / excitement about the upcoming pattern is totally warranted (of which, I personally am definitely interested). At the same time, it won't take much to screw things up....change the ridge tilt in AK, have less -NAO support, have a bit more troughing out west and a bit more SE ridge. Anyway, just throwing that out there. It's tough to get everything to come together. Not directing any of this to you Arcc or anyone else. Just saying there certainly are no guarantees
I know most want cold and snow/ice/sleet, but to have that we have to have the right pattern setup to allow that to occur. It's difficult getting the right set of ingredients to allow that to be realized. We in the south
That was a good one too Grit. The golf ponds were frozen over around here as well. This is the cold I’m here for.
I remember that coldwave because highs were in the teens and my cars battery went dead as a door knob and had to immediately go to auto zone to get new battery?
January 28th is etched in my memory forever, even over the 10 inches of snow in December 2017. I may not ever see four inches of snow on the ground at -3F in Clay County, AL ever again.
Was this the same Jan that had a big snow for the western Triangle that came from the SSE?
Polar vortex dropped into great lakes back then
Yeah, you may be referring to this one that hit the Charleston area pretty hard and went up the coast into the NE as the "Bomb Cyclone"
I’m sure there are few local meteorologists in the Atlanta then that will remember those days for a different reason. Not forecasting accumulation despite the NWS issuing WS warnings
Might be banter, but I called the NWS and praised them for sticking to their guns on that forecast!
The one Im thinking of gave about 4 or so to the Raleigh area, but socked Chatham and Orange Co with close to a foot of snow. Temps 33 to 34 but rates were high, almost thunderstormish. Thought it might be 2018, but unsure. It did come from the SSE, I remember seeing dense bright colors on radar, and it delivered. Heavy wet snow.Yeah, you may be referring to this one that hit the Charleston area pretty hard and went up the coast into the NE as the "Bomb Cyclone"
Yeah and mods feel free to move this to banter but the worst part was the Georgia Governor and Atlanta Mayor trying to deflect all the blame on the NWS despite their forecast ending up correct.
The one time an anafront event worked out
Give me a dose of 16 plz!After the table setter storm (southernwx should TM that term), the CMC Ens has the best looking pattern with the most wintry ensemble members at the moment. Would be nice to see model agreement on this kind of west based block, but we don't have that at the moment.
5 Day pattern image for Dec 16 to 21...
1036 in central PA versus a 1032 on the 18Z run
Just was a matter of time before something showed on the surface.
