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Pattern Dazzling December

With such a strong -NAO and a block developing, it is only a matter of time before the cold hits here in the SE. This pattern is really reminiscent of 1989 where we had a very cold and icy December. Problem is what happened after Jan 1 of 1990 after that cold December. Moral of the story is hopefully we get some winter precip in December lest Jan-Mar turns out very mild like it did that winter
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I wouldn’t worry about that to much atm, thats a look that would sneak cold down, but we’re probably gonna see a -EPO event in a couple weeks when tropical forcing returns back in that favor (WPAC). having that TPV on our side is gonna be our supply for the time being. Only thing I would worry about is before the -EPO event we end up getting a +EPO like what yesterdays CMCE/GFS runs showed, do not want to do that otherwise we block pacific air like 2021
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Im starting to like long range forecasting827B3AF5-48AB-4C76-BDA9-B3A55F89A2E1.png
 
MichaelJ said:
With such a strong -NAO and a block developing, it is only a matter of time before the cold hits here in the SE. This pattern is really reminiscent of 1989 where we had a very cold and icy December. Problem is what happened after Jan 1 of 1990 after that cold December. Moral of the story is hopefully we get some winter precip in December lest Jan-Mar turns out very mild like it did that winter
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There’s some similarities between what’s showing for 10 days out or so to what how December ‘89 started out. The first winter storm for the Carolinas that year came in on December 8-9 ( something about those dates) and it was big ice/sleet storm for the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate that finished as snow and a big snowstorm for the mountains then up into VA and the Mid-Atlantic. The NC/SC Shrine Bowl Game was played in CLT that year at old Memorial Stadium in snow and sleet.
 
Summerhaven, a mountain town about an hours drive from Tucson, at 8,000ft, is now forecast to get 12-24” of snow with the winter storm moving in next Monday. Definitely will be driving out that way. Euro has a few flakes in Tucson (2,500ft) after a bunch of cold rain. GFS says no snow in Tucson, lowest snow level around 4,000ft
 
I haven't seen snow since March 29th. Too long. Here's a photo from that day in Summerhaven, AZ. Was extra cool since it was a thundersnow event.

Wbx3GRN.png
 
Chazwin said:
There’s some similarities between what’s showing for 10 days out or so to what how December ‘89 started out. The first winter storm for the Carolinas that year came in on December 8-9 ( something about those dates) and it was big ice/sleet storm for the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate that finished as snow and a big snowstorm for the mountains then up into VA and the Mid-Atlantic. The NC/SC Shrine Bowl Game was played in CLT that year at old Memorial Stadium in snow and sleet.
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Wow, I somehow didn’t know that about the 89 shrine bowl.
 
griteater said:
Yeah agree, the Cali wave should kick on out, and once it setups up shop over the NE and off the NE coast, that would be the time for a potential winter storm chance. I think the bigger question is what happens down the line. I would like to see the Atlantic side anomaly centers be more dominant (like CMC Ens - 1st image) instead of the Pacific side anomaly centers being dominant (like EPS - 2nd image.....GEFS is like this as well). But at any rate, first step is to get the initial cool/cold plunge in here

jcEhHsD.png


y2Br3g0.png
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Catching up on the runs today, really nice to see the ridging retrograde west more and hook up with the Alaskan ridge. I agree, the missing element seems to still be too much dominance by the western trough. The cold spills east, but it's not "releasing the hounds". What do we need to look for, what changes do we need to have for the Atlantic trough to become the dominate one?
 
I don't blame people who are apprehensive because the models have been less than stellar, but we want a pacific that favors cold weather for us. No sugar coating that one.
 
CaryWx said:
grit, Don't these things (SSW) take a couple weeks to have an effect for us locally in the SE?
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The traditional top-down SSW does take time from Strat PV weakening > SSW > Upper Strat warming downwelling into the troposphere. The ideal case would be where we have ongoing tropospheric blocking (like we do now) such that if we do get a SSW, the downwelling process wouldn't be necessary. Bottom line is that it's difficult (thought not impossible) to get an extended period of quality -AO/-NAO blocking without a weak strat PV and/or SSW
 
griteater said:
The traditional top-down SSW does take time from Strat PV weakening > SSW > Upper Strat warming downwelling into the troposphere. The ideal case would be where we have ongoing tropospheric blocking (like we do now) such that if we do get a SSW, the downwelling process wouldn't be necessary. Bottom line is that it's difficult (thought not impossible) to get an extended period of quality -AO/-NAO blocking without a weak strat PV and/or SSW
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I would take an extended -ao/nao if we cant realize a SSW. Dr. Simon Lee isn't sold on a SSW as of yet.
 
SnowNiner said:
Catching up on the runs today, really nice to see the ridging retrograde west more and hook up with the Alaskan ridge. I agree, the missing element seems to still be too much dominance by the western trough. The cold spills east, but it's not "releasing the hounds". What do we need to look for, what changes do we need to have for the Atlantic trough to become the dominate one?
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Some thoughts here for what we might need to see to get the Atlantic side sector more dominant: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/dazzling-december.1145/page-50#post-602726

Standard -EPO favors max cold to our west, but not all AK ridging is the same of course. It depends on the specific details for how all the waves break and the ridge / trough orientation etc. No way to dissect that now. Having a good -NAO to go with AK ridging should do the trick though
 
Next Friday into Saturday the flakes will be flying and sticking in the Mtns, especially western facing slopes. GFS is out in left field still. But Euro ens & ops, as well as the Canadian ens and Ops are being consistent with striping down a few inches. I see a way it could end up a little more or decrease. So if you want to same day trip in order to walk on some white Ground to get in the Christmas spirit without having to book a flight out to the Rockies, heres your shot.
 
NCSNOW said:
Next Friday into Saturday the flakes will be flying and sticking in the Mtns, especially western facing slopes. GFS is out in left field still. But Euro ens & ops, as well as the Canadian ens and Ops are being consistent with striping down a few inches. I see a way it could end up a little more or decrease. So if you want to same day trip in order to walk on some white Ground to get in the Christmas spirit without having to book a flight out to the Rockies, heres your shot.
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I sure do hope so. I hit 61° yesterday at the house I'm building in Boone. It sits at 4200ft. Only got a dusting so far this year. Hopefully we can get some consistency in the models in the next few runs.
 
The best maps to show are still out at 240, though the changes to this are underway before then. The Euro has the best look with blocking persisting in the east and pretty good ridging out west. And it has that ULL off the west coast that is somewhat disconnected, keeping heights from being too low in the SW. Nice connection to the Arctic here.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png

The CMC is pretty good too. Ridging out west is a little more diffuse and the ULL off the west coast is rather sloppy.

gem_z500_mslp_nhem_41.png

The GFS at 0z is pretty awful. Instead of a ULL out west, you have a nice trough running back west. Without a stout west -NAO, which we don't have, it won't be easy to get all that cold here on a sustained basis.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_41.png

The 6z GFS is better. But again, there is a full trough extending off the west coast, keeping heights low out there. I don't care for that.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_40.png

In any event, lots of options still on the table. But I like that the Euro and CMC have been somewhat consistent getting legit cold here at some point.
 
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-1213600.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-1235200 (2).png

Folks if you think about it, we are really right on track. I know there was a time where most of us sort rushed this change by 4-5 days, but we have now got the cooldown consistently under day 10 now, which is the mid month timeframe we always talked on. Now we wait to see what it means for late December. But i really think somewhere in the Southern plains, Mississippi valley area up through the Ohio valley really score first.
 
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