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Pattern Dazzling December

griteater said:
Here is a loop of Nov 15 to Dec 29 in 2010, in 3 day increments. Second image is a single image covering all of those days. 3rd image is the most recent chart of Global Mountain Torque

The 2 things that stand out to me are: 1) This time we have this big low in NE Siberia along with flat Aleutian ridging that is pumping low pressure into AK and down the west coast. In 2010, we do see periods of troughing along and off the west coast, but there was a more poleward Aleutian ridge and the 'low pressure pump' emanating from NE Siberia isn't quite as potent.....and 2) I think we are probably seeing the effects of this massive negative mountain torque event that recently took place, of which the effects are of retracting the entire wave pattern to the west (which we saw on the trend loop from @Jimmy Hypocracy)....that causes a problem with getting the Canadian TPV to kick east and tuck under the block as each mini-ridge that rises in the NPac keeps going up farther and farther west.

In the end, I still say we need to hang tight and see how this evolves. We've had a few days of bad trends, but the tide could turn back....and we'll probably see more help arrive in the form of + mtn torque and tropical forcing later into Dec that would help with getting ridging to go up closer to the west coast

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Excellent analysis! Thank you!
 
FWIW the euro has a little trough in the east at the end of the run. Probably would’ve been transient though


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Loganelliott99 said:
FWIW the euro has a little trough in the east at the end of the run. Probably would’ve been transient though
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Yeah that's what I mean by saying let's see how this evolves. Here's the Euro Control run which is similar to the Euro Op run at Day 7-10....but then progresses to this...

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ILMRoss said:
in case anyone is out there scared to post, scared to put up their own analysis, just know you have a met tagged person here putting up bricks at will (ridge trending too strong)
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Teleconnections matter.
Patterns matter.
But timing is still the key...
No matter how wet or how cold...
It's all about threading the needle.
It's the SE.
Yes it snows.
Yes we have Wintery weather.
It's just not that often or we wouldn't get as excited if it happened all the time.
If u live N of I-40 ur going to have Several rounds of wintery weather.
NW of 85 you'll have at least one good round and possibly more.
It has literally snowed in the worst teleconnections with good/great timing,
And has not snowed with the best setups we could dream of having.
Timing that's the key.
 
Teleconnections matter.
Billypg70 said:
Patterns matter.
But timing is still the key...
No matter how wet or how cold...
It's all about threading the needle.
It's the SE.
Yes it snows.
Yes we have Wintery weather.
It's just not that often or we wouldn't get as excited if it happened all the time.
If u live N of I-40 ur going to have Several rounds of wintery weather.
NW of 85 you'll have at least one good round and possibly more.
It has literally snowed in the worst teleconnections with good/great timing,
And has not snowed with the best setups we could dream of having.
Timing that's the key.
Click to expand...
Might want to throw in there, that even in colder pattern overall patterns, you can still get short warm ups for a day or two… we do live in the south after all
 
LMAO, so typical for this time of year...

KATL

Temps look to hold steady from the last forecast in the 55-70 degree
range for highs and the 45-60 degree range for lows. Referencing
climatology, the min temps this week look to be 15-20 degrees above
climatology for this time of year with the max temps being 10-15
degrees above normal.
 
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