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Pattern Dazzling December

griteater said:
Well dang, did yall see the new GFS run
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Robert West said:
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Good lord. Laughable. ?
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At this point… it’s absolutely laughable. It’s hard to say anything about a trend on the models when they are repeatedly doing this. I mean that is two completely opposite H5 patterns on two runs of the same model ran 6 hours apart
 
Chazwin said:
At this point… it’s absolutely laughable. It’s hard to say anything about a trend on the models when they are repeatedly doing this. I mean that is two completely opposite H5 patterns on two runs of the same model ran 6 hours apart
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Euro suite says "Hello stranger, what you been waiting on?"
 
It’s not a TPV under the block kickstarting a good pattern immediately but I’ll certainly take this trend to less SER and breaks under the -NAO/NE Canadian ridge, eventually over time it’s a step down process which each piece of energy amplifying over the Atlantic and cooling down the pattern more and more. Maybe starting to gain some momentum ? 0FA0C83D-6B42-44B5-B1DA-7058F2D62169.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s not a TPV under the block kickstarting a good pattern immediately but I’ll certainly take this trend to less SER and breaks under the -NAO/NE Canadian ridge, eventually over time it’s a step down process which each piece of energy amplifying over the Atlantic and cooling down the pattern more and more. Maybe starting to gain some momentum ? View attachment 124688
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This is probably more believable than that was (TPV under the block sliding east), but still need to see this continue to trend once inside truncation. I could see the blocking trending stronger once again, so maybe this time there will be energy undercutting to set us on our way.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s not a TPV under the block kickstarting a good pattern immediately but I’ll certainly take this trend to less SER and breaks under the -NAO/NE Canadian ridge, eventually over time it’s a step down process which each piece of energy amplifying over the Atlantic and cooling down the pattern more and more. Maybe starting to gain some momentum ? View attachment 124688
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Let's see if the Euro Suite can hold the line or gain in beauty as it has been the best of the bunch of late. Like how it holds the Scandi ridging here to the end of the run - breeding ground for retrograding blocks

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I tried to convey this last week that the models do not do a good job when it comes to blocking over top especially with strong blocks and to not get too attached to any one model run. Also as many have stated these good patterns for us usually come later rather than earlier. My prediction on 10-20 still stands but I could see the best time even being after this period as we hopefully have relaxation of the -PNA and eventually an actual favorable pacific. I wouldn’t trust much at all past 180 hours in a pattern like this. Obviously ensembles are the best to look at past this time but even then they can sway substantially so it’s best to stay cautious and don’t get too optimistic about either outcomes they provide until we get closer. Also while we will see some warm days in the next week I do believe CAD will do it’s best to keep those muted for us in the CAD regions
 
The NWS 8 to 14 day forecast is showing well below normal temperatures for Eastern North Carolina and below normal temperatures for most of the South with normal precipitation. It looks the NWS sees a pattern change in the tea leaves as some of the models have been showing for the middle of the month.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
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Good example of not an east-based -NAO. Trough east of HI is good and favors ridging over the west coast, as shown. Would be nice for the ridging in western AK to connect with the ridging in ?? and give us the ridge-bridge over the top that opens the foodgates and releases the Arctic hounds. Anyway, nice evolution.
 
Meh. Not a huge fan of 12z EPS. I guess it’s not horrible. But definitely worse than 0z
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Loganelliott99 said:
Meh. Not a huge fan of 12z EPS. I guess it’s not horrible. But definitely worse than 0z
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The differences are trivial. You're going to see dispersion that far out. There is still major blocking and there is a below-average look. The Euro is fine.
 
Rain Cold said:
Good example of not an east-based -NAO. Trough east of HI is good and favors ridging over the west coast, as shown. Would be nice for the ridging in western AK to connect with the ridging in ?? and give us the ridge-bridge over the top that opens the foodgates and releases the Arctic hounds. Anyway, nice evolution.
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Euro Control run maybe?

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griteater said:
Euro day 7 to 10 day here has a more consolidated and strong low pressure tracking off Japan into NE Siberia (compared to GFS and CMC), helping to pump the western ridging / high pressure. We need to see these lows stay out of tracking into Alaska

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I've heard about convection in IO throwing models off possibly. Sometimes it really takes a while to get our desired pattern. Each winter is different in varying degrees
 
First notes I've seen so far predicting/expecting Christmas Holiday time to be actually cold.
 
Itryatgolf said:
JB is smart, but he obviously hypes stuff to get clients. Shouldn't be nothing new there.
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Of course he’s trying to get clients doesn’t everyone that has a business selling weather info? So you are right. Nothing new there! But the pattern he’s been showing/pushing for a while now looks mighty good.


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