SnowNiner
Member
Now that's what I'm talking about, that'll do work. That's probably the best case scenario for mid December and I hope it holds.
It’s interesting that you mention the Euro suite is a better performer on the Atlantic side… I know that back in the winters of ‘09-10, ‘10-11, and ‘13-14, it always seemed like that when the Euro showed a storm in the 7-9 range you could pretty much take it to the bank that there would be a storm… you just had to wait for the specifics to be ironed out. Those winters of course, saw general patterns in which strong blocking up north dominated the pattern for long stretchesEuro Suite is taking baby steps toward the GFS Suite with respect to it wanting to send more of that low pressure from NE Siberia toward Alaska. On the flip side, this was a hardcore west-based Greenland block and east coast trough couplet on this run of the EPS....very nice.
Anecdotally / Historically, I tend to view the GFS Ensemble as being a little better performer on the Pacific side, and with how it depicts the associated downstream pattern over the U.S., while I tend to view the Euro Ensemble a better performer on the Atlantic side. A retrograding Greenland Block like this should be taylor-made for the Euro Ens
I dont like the warm air hovering so close over FL and portions of South GA.NOAA CPC goes mini-boom with Dec 8-14 500mb and Temperature Forecasts
I don’t think that’s ever gonna change.I dont like the warm air hovering so close over FL and portions of South GA.
Honestly if you don’t have some warm anamolies there you run the risk of suppression. Many I-20 corridor and north winter storms have had above average temperatures along the Gulf Coast and in FloridaI don’t think that’s ever gonna change.
I like it. Transition makes the storms better.I dont like the warm air hovering so close over FL and portions of South GA.
NOAA CPC goes mini-boom with Dec 8-14 500mb and Temperature Forecasts
18z GFS still had the crappy Pacific progression, but it was offset by the hardcore west-based -NAO Greenland / E Coast trough couplet just like today's EPS runNot to be a weenie, but I’m being a weenie. This GFS run at H5 matches the ensembles nicely
Oh I can assure you, the Dec 2010 block was hardcore to the max. It had one of the all-time low daily AO values for winter. But no doubt, the one upcoming looks really good if it materializes. This was the 7-10 day forecast image from the Euro in early Dec 2010I honestly cant remember a time in my tracking hobby where I've seen so much blocking up top, and lower heights from the Mississippi River all the way across the hemisphere to the far side of Siberia. Not sure 2010 was even that pure, though I'm sure I missed the comparisons a few pages back. I really hope this blocking pattern materializes. Seems like CPC thinks it will. At the very least, I'd bet the Mountains will get to start the ski season with a bang mid December, and I'll be there for it!
Just thought that was the knockout punchGFS has another slider poised to eject west to east out of New Mexico there at the end of the run
Oh I can assure you, the Dec 2010 block was hardcore to the max. It had one of the all-time low daily AO values for winter. But no doubt, the one upcoming looks really good if it materializes. This was the 7-10 day forecast image from the Euro in early Dec 2010