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Pattern Dazzling December

Loganelliott99 said:
I didn’t mean to be rude! I’m just not very educated in volcanoes and how the effect weather


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That's okay, I wasn't sure if you didn't understand the dynamics surrounding volcanoes, or didn't see the significance of the ocean cooling.
 
Hypsometric said:
Take your pick.

View attachment 124629
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This is a great illustration of the difference it makes depending on the location of the block. Last night’s 0z has the block still centered over Greenland at this timeframe and it allows the SER to flex more, while today’s 12z the block is quicker to be centered near Baffin Bay and it forces the SER to flatten out and allow that TPV to slide underneath.
 
Ollie Williams said:
That's okay, I wasn't sure if you didn't understand the dynamics surrounding volcanoes, or didn't see the significance of the ocean cooling.
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I wonder if the decreased ocean temps will lead to less water vapor in the atmosphere, dryer air overall, and less precipitation and also, more cooling as water vapor accounts for 95% of Earth's greenhouse effect. It takes a lot of energy to heat the oceans and a lot of energy must be removed in order to drop the water temp. A monster volcanic eruption and historic low solar output would do it. Reduce the water vapor, too, and look out below. CO2 concentrations are way to small to mitigate this process.

Food for thought...
 
Haven’t seen much about the 12z EPS. Was it bad?


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Loganelliott99 said:
Yeah. This run Doesn’t look too promising. Worse than 12z


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Pacific is a parade of troughs into the west coast. Not ideal.

But the block sets up at 180 with strong high pressure starting to build in.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_31.png

By 216, we have wedging. Nice block and 50/50 in place. Not a warm look, but until the Pacific gets repaired, it's not going to be very cold.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_37.png

By 264, it's still not warm. The blocking has retrograded with ridging more into Canada. TT doesn't have 240 yet. Not sure where this goes, but the Pacific still looks like trash. But, there's no SE ridge in any of these images, and it should be pretty chilly, I would guess, by looking at H5.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_45.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Pacific is a parade of troughs into the west coast. Not ideal.

But the block sets up at 180 with strong high pressure starting to build in.

View attachment 124637

By 216, we have wedging. Nice block and 50/50 in place. Not a warm look, but until the Pacific gets repaired, it's not going to be very cold.

View attachment 124638

By 264, it's still not warm. The blocking has retrograded with ridging more into Canada. TT doesn't have 240 yet. Not sure where this goes, but the Pacific still looks like trash. But, there's no SE ridge in any of these images, and it should be pretty chilly, I would guess, by looking at H5.

View attachment 124639
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Seems like a parade of cool rains. Yet some claim the pacific doesn’t mean anything. It burns us every year


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I made a nice thread on my thoughts summarizing the overall changes being seen in NWP the past few days (towards more -PNA)



I also made this nice explainer graphic for the current -EAMT event.
Capture2.JPG



ICYMI, I also made this pair of graphics a while back explaining the basics of mountain torque & its effect on the jet stream.

Hopefully you all find some of my 2 cents and explanations helpful

 
Webberweather53 said:
I made a nice thread on my thoughts summarizing the overall changes being seen in NWP the past few days (towards more -PNA)



I also made this nice explainer graphic for the current -EAMT event.
View attachment 124641



ICYMI, I also made this pair of graphics a while back explaining the basics of mountain torque & its effect on the jet stream.

Hopefully you all find some of my 2 cents and explanations helpful

Click to expand...


Very helpful. Nice work Eric


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Onto 0z. 18z GEFS is worse than 12z.
d1a03678dc4e7d58a4f18d8dcd1918ff.gif



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Loganelliott99 said:
Seems like a parade of cool rains. Yet some claim the pacific doesn’t mean anything. It burns us every year
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Not sure where this 'Pacific doesn't matter' narrative originated...I can't say I really see that on the board here, but maybe I'm missing it....but we need all the help we can get in all parts of the world to make it snow down here....not to mention, a lot of luck. But we certainly don't want to see a bunch of troughing up and down the west coast (a la the new 18z GEFS)

But for me personally, the heavy -AO/-NAO pattern is my favorite. It doesn't always work of course, but there's something a bit mesmerizing seeing the model runs come in with that big block forming, and with the slowing of the downstream flow over the Atlantic, and with everything in the flow backing up behind it such that, in the really good ones, the entire height pattern just drops uniformly south. It's like watching a giant wreck at Talladega and all the chaos that ensues behind it.

Also, these types of patterns are associated with some of the iconic snowy and/or cold winters / periods across the south, like 1935-1936, Jan 1940, Feb-Mar 1960, Jan 1966, 1968-1969, 1969-1970, 1976-1977, 1978-1979, Jan 1982, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 2010-2011
 
griteater said:
Not sure where this 'Pacific doesn't matter' narrative originated...I can't say I really see that on the board here, but maybe I'm missing it....but we need all the help we can get in all parts of the world to make it snow down here....not to mention, a lot of luck. But we certainly don't want to see a bunch of troughing up and down the west coast (a la the new 18z GEFS)

But for me personally, the heavy -AO/-NAO pattern is my favorite. It doesn't always work of course, but there's something a bit mesmerizing seeing the model runs come in with that big block forming, and with the slowing of the downstream flow over the Atlantic, and with everything in the flow backing up behind it such that, in the really good ones, the entire height pattern just drops uniformly south. It's like watching a giant wreck at Talladega and all the chaos that ensues behind it.

Also, these types of patterns are associated with some of the iconic snowy and/or cold winters / periods across the south, like 1935-1936, Jan 1940, Feb-Mar 1960, Jan 1966, 1968-1969, 1969-1970, 1976-1977, 1978-1979, Jan 1982, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 2010-2011
Click to expand...

I Always love your posts explaining everything so well. Thank you.


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griteater said:
Not sure where this 'Pacific doesn't matter' narrative originated...I can't say I really see that on the board here, but maybe I'm missing it....but we need all the help we can get in all parts of the world to make it snow down here....not to mention, a lot of luck. But we certainly don't want to see a bunch of troughing up and down the west coast (a la the new 18z GEFS)

But for me personally, the heavy -AO/-NAO pattern is my favorite. It doesn't always work of course, but there's something a bit mesmerizing seeing the model runs come in with that big block forming, and with the slowing of the downstream flow over the Atlantic, and with everything in the flow backing up behind it such that, in the really good ones, the entire height pattern just drops uniformly south. It's like watching a giant wreck at Talladega and all the chaos that ensues behind it.

Also, these types of patterns are associated with some of the iconic snowy and/or cold winters / periods across the south, like 1935-1936, Jan 1940, Feb-Mar 1960, Jan 1966, 1968-1969, 1969-1970, 1976-1977, 1978-1979, Jan 1982, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 2010-2011
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Yeah history is on our side. Hopefully it progresses and we get rolling by the last 10 days of the month. It's going to be very disappointing if be manage to blow that type of block. Been over a decade since we had that and they don't come around often. We need to cash in
 
I think we will start seeing the effects of favorable tropical forcing as we get closer and closer. I throw next week into the trash as -PNA and west coast troughing takes hold. As we move towards the middle of December I expect our -NAO block will continue to build and we start seeing a relaxation out west. I wouldn't call for a +PNA yet as that is just rare these days it feels like, but at least a neutral PNA which honestly at this point is a win. We aren't in peak climo yet so let's not get too over board on expecting any type of winter weather until the back half of December, but I think the pattern is progressing about as well as we can hope for. Need to continue to hold the -NAO which I think is the most sure fire thing at this point. If we can keep low amp and COD MJO, then I think we have a really good shot to score towards the end of the month. We don't need the whole TPV on our side of the earth, but just a piece or 2 with some energy coming out of the Pacific Northwest and boom you're cooking with grease.
 
griteater said:
Not sure where this 'Pacific doesn't matter' narrative originated...I can't say I really see that on the board here, but maybe I'm missing it....but we need all the help we can get in all parts of the world to make it snow down here....not to mention, a lot of luck. But we certainly don't want to see a bunch of troughing up and down the west coast (a la the new 18z GEFS)

But for me personally, the heavy -AO/-NAO pattern is my favorite. It doesn't always work of course, but there's something a bit mesmerizing seeing the model runs come in with that big block forming, and with the slowing of the downstream flow over the Atlantic, and with everything in the flow backing up behind it such that, in the really good ones, the entire height pattern just drops uniformly south. It's like watching a giant wreck at Talladega and all the chaos that ensues behind it.

Also, these types of patterns are associated with some of the iconic snowy and/or cold winters / periods across the south, like 1935-1936, Jan 1940, Feb-Mar 1960, Jan 1966, 1968-1969, 1969-1970, 1976-1977, 1978-1979, Jan 1982, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 2010-2011
Click to expand...

My hope is we can win in this -NAO regime, and that it lines up the way it should, the TPV sets up where it should despite the west not being great. It can't be awful with a huge pacific low for sure. But I just doubt we'll have a great block AND a good pacific at the same time. Even 9-10 had a not so great pacific.

Right now the Atlantic seems our best shot. We'll likely need to deal with that and hope the pacific doesn't kill it too bad. My guess is when the pacific really improves significantly, the block may be gone. Thats all a bit anecdotal I know, but just from my past weenie experience of not having both sides in our favor.

Most recent events we've had seem to have originated from a good pacific and good timing. So honestly I'm not sure what to root for anymore.
 
SnowNiner said:
My hope is we can win in this -NAO regime, and that it lines up the way it should, the TPV sets up where it should despite the west not being great. It can't be awful with a huge pacific low for sure. But I just doubt we'll have a great block AND a good pacific at the same time. Even 9-10 had a not so great pacific.

Right now the Atlantic seems our best shot. We'll likely need to deal with that and hope the pacific doesn't kill it too bad. My guess is when the pacific really improves significantly, the block may be gone. Thats all a bit anecdotal I know, but just from my past weenie experience of not having both sides in our favor.

Most recent events we've had seem to have originated from a good pacific and good timing. So honestly I'm not sure what to root for anymore.
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I tend to root for the -NAO/-AO combo. As grits post above shows historically it works. I remember reading on here that usually the forces that cause a -NAO usually destroy the -EPO and vise versa. So I does seem really hard to get a great Pacific with a Great Atlantic. Give me the great Atlantic and a ok Pacific and let's roll the dice.
 
I would not give up on some winter action here in NC around the middle of the month. The models have been showing a storm here around that time for at least one run the past few days.
 
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