Transient "torches" instead of transient cold for a change. Get the firewood while the gettin's good!
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Someones gonna get ----- slapped by an ice storm sometime in the next month. If I had to guess, between 85 and 20.
Beginning to get that feeling too based on these pattern proggs. Gonna hear some snapping cold
smast16
Member
Maybe i'm just a grumpy grinch, but that doesn't look that cold to me. I agree, the blocking is about perfect, but the first batch of cold air comes from the Pac NW after coming over the mountains and sits in the central US before sliding east. The 2nd batch comes from a nuked Canada. 
I know it's all 10+ days away and probably won't even happen this way.
I know it's all 10+ days away and probably won't even happen this way.
iGRXY
Member
We can definitely score snow during these types of patterns, especially getting a +PNA and -NAO combo with favorable tropical forcing. That's when we're really cooking with grease. But the CAD areas of NC/SC/and NeGA are sitting right in the crosshairs for a Ice storm. I think it's not a if, but when with this pattern as it is much easier to build deep CAD with this type of block and confluence in the 50/50 region. Plus we are massively due for a true crippling ice storm in these areas as sleet has saved us the last decade and a half.
griteater
Member
Tarheelwx
Member
I agree. I see below normal coming, but not major cold, at least not yet.
TW
Maybe I missed it but I don't think anyone talking major cold just yet, just good pattern recognition and below normal temps. And BN around here in mid-Dec on can produce, probably better than major cold tbh
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
IMO this upcoming pattern is probably almost as ideal as it gets for some type or wintry weather. Somewhere around the 20th. If a +PNA can develop with a strong -NAO and -AO it’s anyone in the SE game.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
SnowwxAtl
Member
My thoughts exactly.
I kind of agree. I just didn't want to be the first one to poop on the parade. I don't pay attention to an op model that far out. But it is possible that it doesn't get that cold. 2 years ago we had the -NAO and a zonal pacific and just blocked up Pacific air. This year that's not the case. The Pacific is more amplified. But if you end up with Pacific ridging connecting with the Greenland block how do you supply Canada with fresh cold? You end up blocking up a stale moderating airmass, which won't get the job done. It'll be below average but not a winter weather pattern. I'm cautiously optimistic that doesn't happen and this block performs like it should.
Yeah no major cold which is good cause that usually means dry and cold! This pattern is good for just cold enough for snow and enough for precip to get into the mix. Also opens the door for cold rain events as well.
As Shane would say, WOMPP, say bye bye to that hyped medium range warmup/SER and hello to a better blocking trend/lower heights 
Like I said in my previous post it's too far out but assuming something like that happens where does Canada get it's cold air supply? Wouldn't that allow Canada to moderate and rain on our parade later in the month? I know no one is expecting extreme cold the first half of the month but we need Canada to remain cold. The blues over the SE are pretty and all but I'm looking ahead to the latter half of the month when we may have a real shot. Maybe someone with more knowledge can explain how that's a great look.
LickWx
Member
I love when my 60 degree warmup turn to 40 degree slate gray skies ?
I love when the medium range pattern trends better, only bodes well for the longer range !!
I wouldn’t worry about that to much atm, thats a look that would sneak cold down, but we’re probably gonna see a -EPO event in a couple weeks when tropical forcing returns back in that favor (WPAC). having that TPV on our side is gonna be our supply for the time being. Only thing I would worry about is before the -EPO event we end up getting a +EPO like what yesterdays CMCE/GFS runs showed, do not want to do that otherwise we block pacific air like 2021
Brick Tamland
Member
Hasn't the GFS shown a winter storm around the 14th, too? This time period might be something to watch for real.
Yeah I'd definitely rather block up a modified Canadian airmass that a Pacific airmass. History shows a -NAO that strong leads to good things. It's definitely going to slow the flow and push the storm track south. Can we get it cold enough is the big question.