Pattern Dazzling December

[griteater]

Wow that would be a historic block IMO. Any Met's confirm?

Some recent runs have had the NAO index lower on this chart, but the AO index is the lowest I've seen (-5 here). If you could take a West-Based NAO number (instead of the full domain NAO) like Allan Huffman used to produce, it would likely be very low here at day 10 (3rd image) with the heavy Greenland ridging combined with the strong low in E Canada

 

[Ollie Williams]

The CMC Ensembles look much better with the run to run delta!

 

[griteater]

The CMC Ensembles look much better with the run to run delta!
View attachment 124369View attachment 124368

Yep Ollie, it looks dynamite here on Dec 13th, much improved from previous run

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Correction: 3 degrees shy of a record high (was looking at yesterday's data).

Official high at DFW was an intra-hour 81*F. Close, but no cigar.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Love this short term GFS trend strengthening the block, in the day 5 window now ?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

06. GFS is pretty chilly! Models starting to key in


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[Chazwin]

06. GFS is pretty chilly! Models starting to key in


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I would say that models are keying in on an overall pattern, but there’s still a good bit to be worked out with timing of anything. It looks to me like after this little cool snap the next couple days it warms up until after the front comes through on Wednesday we cool back down, but I’m not expecting any legitimate wintry threats to start showing until around the 12/15 timeframe at the earliest….

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I would say that models are keying in on an overall pattern, but there’s still a good bit to be worked out with timing of anything. It looks to me like after this little cool snap the next couple days it warms up until after the front comes through on Wednesday we cool back down, but I’m not expecting any legitimate wintry threats to start showing until around the 12/15 timeframe at the earliest….

Oh I absolutely agree.


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[Webberweather53]

A legit winter storm signal is building during the 3rd week of December (Dec 14-21), esp for the Mid-Atlantic. Hoping the SE US gets in on the action

 

[Myfrotho704_]

06z gefs looked pretty damn good

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

My goodness.. Flow = Jammed

 

[Stevo24]

A legit winter storm signal is building during the 3rd week of December (Dec 14-21), esp for the Mid-Atlantic. Hoping the SE US gets in on the action

We’ve cashed in on a lot less before so fingers crossed.

 

[Rain Cold]

My goodness.. Flow = Jammed View attachment 124380

It's not often we see west based blocking even close to this magnitude. Enjoy these images! Hopefully, it continues to progress. With the SVP weak, this probably won't be the last time we dee this this winter, as I know others have mentioned. It's fun to finally have some potential in December again.

 

[SD]

My goodness.. Flow = Jammed View attachment 124380

Pants...well you know

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It's not often we see west based blocking even close to this magnitude. Enjoy these images! Hopefully, it continues to progress. With the SVP weak, this probably won't be the last time we dee this this winter, as I know others have mentioned. It's fun to finally have some potential in December again.

 

[Rain Cold]

That's a pretty cold NH map. Cold here and really cold air continuing to build in Asia.

 

[LickWx]

That's a pretty cold NH map. Cold hear and really cold continuing to build in Asia.

View attachment 124382

You hear the cold? I know your a cold weenie but man didn’t know weenie enough that you possessed the ability to hear the cold!

 

[Rain Cold]

You hear the cold? I know your a cold weenie but man didn’t know weenie enough that you possessed the ability to hear the cold!

It's good to use all the senses to enjoy patterns like this.

I fixed it!

 

[Mitch West]

Glad to be closing in on good times (Hopefully). Looking forward to the highs and lows of Winter. As always, i appreciate the knowledge from everyone on here. I've learned a ton from many in here over the years.