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Pattern Dazzling December

EthanLovesWeather said:
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Week 3 December 15th - December 21st CFSv2 looking solid with the ridge currently over the Aluetian Islands migrating to the East and North to Alaska with the -NAO still persistent. CFS says goodbye to the -PNA in this resolution. This would be a best case scenario; wouldn’t get my hopes up considering how volatile models have been.
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That setup what cfsv2 is depicting is ideal or close to ideal to bring down real cold air
 
While the December pattern in the US is still very much up in the air, this should be one of the coldest and snowiest Decembers in recent memory for Europe. Horrible timing with the current energy crisis. The massive -NAO is unleashing cold air there, with an active southern storm track, slated to produce accumulating snow down to the Mediterranean coast on today's 12z EPS run.

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ColaSnow said:
There was a period during the February 2010 snowstorm where we easily picked up 3 1/2" within two hours.
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My favorite memory of that one was being stuck in traffic in the pouring snow behind a south Florida tag. The guys kids were so far out the windows I’m surprised they didn’t fall out. You could tell they’d never seen snow before. It tickled me to death.
 
As many have pointed out the past couple days were dealing with our first legit winter pattern change of the year. There’s little to no snow cover in the northern US. This storm for 160 hours out should more than likely trend better for Virginia areas and north more than it would for anyone to the south. Things take time for us down here. Let’s a few storms go by .. build the snow pack up north so we can filter down that cold air easier and eventually with a block over top things will start looking up more and more for our region. Key is patience which is hard to have for us snow lovers. I can certainly attest to that D68A20BE-9692-4743-8049-A2B613AA9E0A.jpeg
 
You right. It is always quite stubborn. It always amazes me how much longer a W. coast trough lasts compared to an E coast trough


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Loganelliott99 said:
You right. It is always quite stubborn. It always amazes me how much longer a W. coast trough lasts compared to an E coast trough


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Not surprising given the La Niña background state. Always gonna favor warmth in the East due to SE ridging.
 
Just fabulous. While the west is frigid .
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Loganelliott99 said:
Just fabulous. While the west is frigid .
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We if that ? is what wins and we fight a SER all month I don't know what to blame anymore. MJO isn't unfavorable like it has been in the past. 10-11 was a moderate, maybe strong La Nina can't remember and it was cold. With a block that strong it dominated the pattern even with a -PNA. It makes no sense unless -------- is onto something or either the models are wrong.
 
Metsfan257 said:
While the December pattern in the US is still very much up in the air, this should be one of the coldest and snowiest Decembers in recent memory for Europe. Horrible timing with the current energy crisis. The massive -NAO is unleashing cold air there, with an active southern storm track, slated to produce accumulating snow down to the Mediterranean coast on today's 12z EPS run.

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They are very overdue none the less. It’s about time the cold hammer dropped on Western Europe! Paris has had maybe one or 2 below average months out of the last 24… no cold winter since 2010
 
Loganelliott99 said:
6z GEFS is much better!!! We’re back folks! Happy Friday


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The 0z EPS was still pretty good too. I know it’s a broken record but these models really do struggle with overall pattern changes at long leads. Heck I looked back 12 days ago and the GFS was showing well above average temperatures for yesterday and today.
 
Lets hope the ensembles rule the roost over their ops. Usually do in the 7 day+ range. The ops are throwing sand on my pipe dream novelty chances for I40 corridor next weekend. Chazwin hit nail on head and biggest thing we want to root for is this pattern to evolve in a favorable way. If we don't catch and get some those cold lobes/air to pinwheel under the block as it sets up shop, it will all be in vain.
 
NCSNOW said:
Lets hope the ensembles rule the roost over their ops. Usually do in the 7 day+ range. The ops are throwing sand on my pipe dream novelty chances for I40 corridor next weekend. Chazwin hit nail on head and biggest thing we want to root for is this pattern to evolve in a favorable way. If we don't catch and get some those cold lobes/air to pinwheel under the block as it sets up shop, it will all be in vain.
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I still think that next weekend is more of a Mid-Atlantic and New England threat and that’s ok because we want snow cover up there. The other thing is that while we would definitely like to see those cold lobes, to come under the block, there is still plenty of homegrown cold air up in Canada that can work for us the deeper we go into the month and the more snowpack that is built to our north
 
whatalife said:
Still fairly good agreement on the models for the 10D-15D period. Still things can change for better or worse this far out.
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Yeah, they look ok. EPS is better than others I think, but I'm starting to believe it's playing catch up with the GEFS. Generally, I hope it's just a bit of a can kick. Doesn't look really cold until after midmonth which I'd be fine with. But I guess odds are we at least stay seasonal cool, and that's a win considering past Decembers. With that said, who knows what else changes in the next two weeks. ?‍♂️

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SnowNiner said:
Yeah, they look ok. EPS is better than others I think, but I'm starting to believe it's playing catch up with the GEFS. Generally, I hope it's just a bit of a can kick. Doesn't look really cold until after midmonth which I'd be fine with. But I guess odds are we at least stay seasonal cool, and that's a win considering past Decembers. With that said, who knows what else changes in the next two weeks. ?‍♂️

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I am personal not looking for any big changes until around the 20th. Anything before that would be an added bonus. A cool December would be a major win compared to the last several Decembers we have had.
 
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