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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Like I said the other day. There is no perfect pattern for snow here. The modeled pattern doesn't look that cold. If we connect the blocks up top we lose cross polar flow and we will have temp issues. If we had a tall western ridge and cross polar flow with a +NAO we rely on timing and we have to be really lucky to time something.
With that said I'd prefer the modeled pattern even if not frigid can lock in below average temps and slow the flow and cause storms to get hung in the 50/50 region giving confluence and pushing the storm track south. My opinion that gives us higher chances to score. Question is will it be cold enough or will we get 33 and rain?
With that said I'd prefer the modeled pattern even if not frigid can lock in below average temps and slow the flow and cause storms to get hung in the 50/50 region giving confluence and pushing the storm track south. My opinion that gives us higher chances to score. Question is will it be cold enough or will we get 33 and rain?
Signs of life
olhausen
Member
Damn, My average highs are in the 40s from around December 7th until very late February. I couldn’t do Florida or even San Diego where I grew up. I like cold and snow to much, especially during the holiday season. I remember in California when we’d get strong Santa Ana winds and it would be 90 around Christmas time. No thanks! current temp is 39 degrees here at noon and I love it!
That's actually one heck of a signal at that range.
BHS1975
Member
Given the incessant record heat this past month has been and how warm the start to December will be I'm glad January looks quite different. Jubilant January!!
I've noticed persistent ridging over the western Caribbean around winter the last several years causing S FL to roast.
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This is gonna be close
I don’t really see any signs that this is coming from a cross polar flow… if it were then we’d absolutely be having to worry about suppression. This more from the cold air that has been building over Alaska and Canada for the last few weeks…. Which I think is fine as long as we don’t see anything that floods Canada with moist Pacific air
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Euro has some very light snow next Saturday Morning for a good chunk of NC plus the border counties of SC.
Wow euro in general agreement .. does spit out some snow around NC although very sporadic .. still skeptical .. this is a very thread the needle type of set up
Absolutely beautiful confluence with backed up flow in the Atlantic, if the first one fails then the second one always has a better shot 
Reminds me of all the small events in Dec 2010 that eventually led to the big one later in the month around Christmas.
Great look to end off the euro, with a shortwave entering the PNW and a big time low in the Atlantic backed up under the block serving as confluence, starting to see the endless potential enter the OP models. 
Some minor EPS support , nothing exciting but this is a first ensemble run showing support to its op around this time 
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This is the easily the best EPS run so far at H5, the strongest signal yet 
Really good look. I don't particularly care what specific days it bounces around on since we're headed into climo. Be happy to just keep that going for awhile. It's redzone stuff.
NWMSGuy
Member
With the potential upcoming pattern change that is being discussed I have heard a lot of talk regarding the year 2010. Are there any other previous decades that this potential pattern resembles?
---- ---- damn
Hypsometric
Member
It's really the 5 day period after this -- if we can continue to hold this look -- that excites me. The west-based, -NAO is established with a signal for additional Pacific waves to move onshore and take a suppressed track. Anything before the 15th would be gravy, but that time period opening around the 16th-18th onward is when it's going to get exciting for most on here I believe.
packfan98
Moderator
Very strong look for a 10-15 mean. I would tend to think that the Mid-Atlantic folks would be first in line, but if the block is as strong as some of the projections, we could get in the game before Christmas. If we could get a good 4 week period loaded with potential from the third week of December through January, it’s about as good as it gets.
Thanks for the long term pattern analysis!
Okhotsk low retreating at the end of the EPS. -EPO event is appearing in the rear view mirror ?
This is where dreams live
In all seriousness, a possibility around the 14th has been showing up on the models for a few days now.
This is important because look how much cold is hanging around the either side, the block is gonna be hard to get rid of so why not add a -EPO to the mix
D9-D10 storm a decent look this far out, I think there's a little smoke there
Brent
Member
You can make the good stuff at 850 with that
starsfan68
Member
I hope so
tennessee storm
Member
Seems like we go through this every December … looking good , but just keeps on getting pushed out further . Let’s pump the brakes little on big cold coming soon. Pacific got work to do still. Need taller Alaska ridge wouldn’t hurt
Here's a comparison of Sunday's EPS with today's for the period Dec 6-12. Indeed, it does look like we are still getting to a similar ending, but the progression is happening a touch slower. Compared to Sunday's version, today's version has: 1) less of the cold TPV in southern Canada getting tucked up underneath the block, 2) more SE Ridge, 3) more low pressure off Cali, 4) less ridging thru AK, 5) disruptive cold low over Siberia is closer to AK.
What are you talking about? There’s nothing getting pushed out further on these model runs… they’re still showing showing a favorable pattern setting up late next week/ weekend. Also, no one’s been saying that big cold is coming soon… we’re simply looking at a pattern that will promote a sustained and possibly extended period of cooler than average temperatures and potentially stormy.
Agree with your ideas here. Only part I disagree on is with respect to connecting blocks up top. If we could pump ridging up into AK to combine with this big Greenland block, a lot of cold air would get sent into the CONUS to go with a slowed flow...it would be full on winter.
Think we will have to be a bit patient with the block and see how it progresses. In the early stages, it looks like the Pacific side is going to put up a good fight. To win that battle, we're going to need to see the couplet of the Greenland Block and developing low underneath be strong as you mention. Hopefully in time, the Pacific pattern improves while we are still hanging on to a nice Atlantic side pattern.
Having said all that, I'm sure we will see some surprises going forward
Lol the weeklies 
AJ1013
Member
Some drier air finally moving in tomorrow and hanging around through next week. Still significantly warmer than normal but with a dew around 60F it won’t feel oppressive.
Overall not a fan of the GFS, over time it’s trending to a deeper -PNA
This is not a favorable medium range trend, we need to get thru this hurdle to reach the goods 