• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

When you get -NAO's as strong as being depicted, not only is it really hard to get rid of them, but they tend to reamplify as well. I think areas (especially in the CAD regions) will be looking at some type of winter storm around the last 10 days of the month. That's the timeframe I think our chances really go through the roof, especially as climo gets better and better every day.
 
iGRXY said:
When you get -NAO's as strong as being depicted, not only is it really hard to get rid of them, but they tend to reamplify as well. I think areas (especially in the CAD regions) will be looking at some type of winter storm around the last 10 days of the month. That's the timeframe I think our chances really go through the roof, especially as climo gets better and better every day.
Click to expand...

Right around the holidays. That would be awesome. Pattern looks ripe for that. The 20th and on.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Yea I smell overrunning Ice/mix shot late next week. Euro was close, GFS out to lunch imo. Canadian has HP in place just a tad to far north. Something to watch. Euro /eps would help suppress everything more and if confluence sets up right in the NE, we should be able to get shallow CAA at the surface east side of Apps. 9 days out though

prateptype.conus.png
 
As nice as this pattern looks in the 10-15 day period, this is one of the biggest reasons why i don't see us getting much of anything until Dec 15th or so at the very earliest. Need to push the southern edge of the snow pack down to at least the I-70 corridor east of the Rockies to have a realistic chance of a big storm for most of the board.

However, this is still without a doubt the best pattern we've seen for wintry weather around Christmas since 2010.

1670284800-k32WaYswGwY.png



1670587200-xEQQIvRPdp0.png


1670587200-4WTpPi2EX7w.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Yea I smell overrunning Ice/mix shot late next week. Euro was close, GFS out to lunch imo. Canadian has HP in place just a tad to far north. Something to watch. Euro /eps would help suppress everything more and if confluence sets up right in the NE, we should be able to get shallow CAA at the surface east side of Apps. 9 days out though

prateptype.conus.png
Click to expand...
I've been watching this one for the last few runs. I like the date too. Something about the 8th/9th. Had some good ones on those dates.
 
Rain Cold said:
The Aleutian ridge is making me angry
Click to expand...
In this situation it’s actually not a bad thing if we shorten wavelengths in the pacific and drop a cutoff under it (like the 12z EPS) and that’s another way to get a +PNA. Lot of big -NAO events that produced did similar things in the pacific (having the Aleutian ridge/cutoff under it in rex block fashion forcing a western/Rockies ridge). Biggest one being like the one posted in the whamby thread (Christmas 2010)2A861970-C9E9-4655-A076-795C0C1DC4F2.gif
 
As HM had advertised a few weeks ago, the -EPO is likely coming back in the latter part of December & should be accompanied by a -NAO. The combination of the MJO, ENSO, & a favorable QBO (west) for -EPO all lining up in our favor.

Can see it starting to set up late in week 2 on NWP models. The circulation pattern should respond and we'll likely see a big -EPO entering week 3/leading into Christmas. One of the best hands we've been dealt in some time around the Holiday season.

1671019200-c3zLjOj6O34.png


figreg200350_7.png

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top