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Pattern Dazzling December

Tarheel1 said:
Patterns locked in! West coast trough, Seattle getting a good snow, hard to break that pattern. It’s been pretty stubborn
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Especially in the La Niña background state, any episodes of suppressed storm tracks will be transient, and entirely dependent on the strength and location of the block. As it is right now, the blocking is situated quite poleward, so we ridge down here I think.
 
Watch next Friday-ish, espeacilly if you are along I40 corridor. 6z GFS is getting closer, has a messy lakes low. Euro, CAN and GFS just need a little more press wth the forming Block. See how that trends. Could sneak one in here for a few of us in 7-8 days.

prateptype_cat.us_ma.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Watch next Friday-ish, espeacilly if you are along I40 corridor. 6z GFS is getting closer, has a messy lakes low. Euro, CAN and GFS just need a little more press wth the forming Block. See how that trends. Could sneak one in here for a few of us in 7-8 days.

prateptype_cat.us_ma.png
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This definitely might be a time to watch for I-40 north, but more importantly I think this could be a system that helps out with getting snowpack built up in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Didn’t realize the EPS last night was going for Aleutian low/+PNA/-EPOView attachment 124480
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Something that I keep noticing and really like is how the deepest heights are showing up right over Baffin Bay…. that’s a prime location for blocking to do the southeast the most good
 
whatalife said:
The models continue to build a nice snow pack to our north. Things look really nice for the SE in general as we get later into the month of December. I just hope the rug does not get pulled out from under us with all that beautiful blocking being shown over top.
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I like the 17th-25th, we’re gonna progress thru a pattern where western energy gets booted each time something dives into the pacific from the NPAC ridge, KU style. 1st and second likely go to the NE/MA and perhaps climo favored areas. that then sets us up later around the 17-25th with those first storms bombing out under the block over the NE US/Atlantic and becoming our confluence so to speak shunting the track South each time. That’s how many NAOs have worked anyways around here . Step down process, need MA/NE to eat first with snow cover and there storms becoming our confluence
 
With all the talk of Dec. 2010, I decided to look back at how the month evolved day by day. Pretty interesting to see how the Christmas storm developed.

Dec_2010_H5anomalies.gif

Here is the composite anomaly for RDU big snow storms (> 6" in a single day), and how they evolved from 5 days out to the time of the event. As many have said, this certainly is our best opportunity at wintry weather around Christmas since 2010.

rduSnow.jpeg

EPS (and all the ensembles) are certainly getting there beyond D10, so it's certainly possible an RDU big snow threat could be looming as we approach the week of Christmas if things hold/improve.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
I like the 17th-25th, we’re gonna progress thru a pattern where western energy gets booted each time something dives into the pacific from the NPAC ridge, KU style. 1st and second likely go to the NE/MA and perhaps climo favored areas. that then sets us up later around the 17-25th with those first storms bombing out under the block over the NE US/Atlantic and becoming our confluence so to speak shunting the track South each time. That’s how many NAOs have worked anyways around here . Step down process, need MA/NE to eat first with snow cover and there storms becoming our confluence
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I agree with this. I think the block is a lock. Eyes on the Pacific evolution, as that will matter to the extent of the cold that makes it into the SE.
 
whatalife said:
The models continue to build a nice snow pack to our north. Things look really nice for the SE in general as we get later into the month of December. I just hope the rug does not get pulled out from under us with all that beautiful blocking being shown over top.
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Yeah, things look great long range. But the reality is all of this is 12+ days away before we actually start seeing real impacts. Lol. Today is just December 1! Soooo much can change. I know the seeds for the big block are already planted and in motion, but being so far out makes me think there's plenty of time for the pacific to put a fly in our chardonnay.

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SnowNiner said:
Yeah, things look great long range. But the reality is all of this is 12+ days away before we actually start seeing real impacts. Lol. Today is just December 1! Soooo much can change. I know the seeds for the big block are already planted and in motion, but being so far out makes me think there's plenty of time for the pacific to put a fly in our chardonnay.

eps_T2ma_namer_50.png
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You just pick the fly out and drink away. Alcohol kills germs! If that block is real, there will be a window for snow somewhere in there. Bottoms up!
 
Is the pattern we are potentially looking at good for winter weather down around a Columbia Sc? I know it’s still not likely but does this pattern up the chances that far south? Asking for a friend that lives down that way.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I like the 17th-25th, we’re gonna progress thru a pattern where western energy gets booted each time something dives into the pacific from the NPAC ridge, KU style. 1st and second likely go to the NE/MA and perhaps climo favored areas. that then sets us up later around the 17-25th with those first storms bombing out under the block over the NE US/Atlantic and becoming our confluence so to speak shunting the track South each time. That’s how many NAOs have worked anyways around here . Step down process, need MA/NE to eat first with snow cover and there storms becoming our confluence
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Good point but it certainly has varied. My biggest concern with this blocking pattern is a certain winter, I think 2012? Where KU after KU struck Roxboro and north repeatedly. RDU would be in the crosshairs every storm, only for the northwest trend to tease it away every time. I remember the stat for that winter was Baltimore had 77 inches and RDU had 7. I would have to look back at the H500 maps and think the block then was more east based than what is being shown for the upcoming block, so I’m still optimistic.
 
Chazwin said:
Something that I keep noticing and really like is how the deepest heights are showing up right over Baffin Bay…. that’s a prime location for blocking to do the southeast the most good
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To piggyback on this, February 2021 had the deepest heights centered further east over Greenland. This along with the MJO amping up in a bad phase allowed the SER to flex and the cold never made it east of the Apps. Obviously this why there’s such a big difference between a west based and east based -NAO
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, things look great long range. But the reality is all of this is 12+ days away before we actually start seeing real impacts. Lol. Today is just December 1! Soooo much can change. I know the seeds for the big block are already planted and in motion, but being so far out makes me think there's plenty of time for the pacific to put a fly in our chardonnay.

eps_T2ma_namer_50.png
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I would be more concerned about the Pacific messing things up if we had an MJO that was amping up in a bad phase. It now looks to be going through phase 8 and entering COD and quickly turning back towards 7/8, but staying in the circle. That plus the PNA moving very close to neutral tells me that strong blocking to the north will control the pattern for awhile
 
The Southeast is going to miss a few. But like others said, that's ok as long as we keep the players on the field getting into the Christmas timeframe. We know the -NAO is going to stick around for the forseeable future. I feel like the window for many along the Eastern US will be bigger than normal for a period of time this month.

I've honestly never seen this much excitement about a potential pattern change (in December) since actively following weather. I remember 2010 very well, but i didn't understand the in depth drivers on what created such a favorable pattern. I just knew when they put the snowflake icon on the 10 day forecast, I was excited.

I remember here in Columbia, SC there being a Winter storm watch on Christmas eve i believe, and thinking that was the coolest thing ever.
 
AJ1013 said:
I'm just SE of Miami (yes the climate is tropical). Winter averages at the nearest station (Miami Beach) are Dec: 76/64, Jan: 74/61, Feb: 75/63. Horrible obviously but it's especially bad to be hot even in what are typically the pleasant months. And cool months are possible though rare. December 2010 averaged 69/50 here.

The difference in terms of comfort between a typical December day (76/64 with dews in the 50's) and a day like tomorrow (82/73 with a dew around 70) is massive. And yeah. I do "expect" cool weather here within reason. A normal winter here has ~10 days with a low in the 40's and a coldest day around 58/41.
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The nearest station to you is cape Florida and that averages 78 in jan. 80/70 is about normal then .
 
Think like the last 10 days of the month. -NAO looks like a given at this point. Setting up really good confluence in the 50/50 region going forward looks like a given. Hopefully we can keep from flooding the west coast with LP and get the infamous double ridge over the poles. That’s when we will really be looking good. We can use week 2-3 of building snow pack and coverage over SE Canada and the NE/MA. At this point we are potentially approaching a pattern where a board wide hit is increasing. At worst those of us in CAD prone areas probably need to be watching for Ice Storm potential even before 12/20 and that going forward is the first thing that pops in my mind as a likely occurrence to happen but who knows.
 
if you have wild mood swings purely based on how models are handling the nuances of a super -NAO, i recommend engaging in some self care! take a walk; go to the grocery store and buy a treat; engage in your favorite non-weather hobby!
 
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