We have a slightly colder resovoir this time, since the prior -EPO allows colder air in, but I could see this being a issue honestly. only difference is in 2021 we had a persistent Alaskan/Aleutian low/+EPO which floods NA with pacific air, this time it’s not a huge improvement but it’s a better one Vs that year
This is actually a pretty normal map for December now. Like others have said, we can't get a below average December anymore when we have multiple days with lows in the 60s. Year after year -PNA...Pretty typical look for May. Oh wait. It's December.
Whamby thread
We wouldn’t want to see that look again because it would mean a cold rain barrage, but that 500mb configuration kills the stratospheric polar vortexCMC Ensemble gives us the aforementioned Dec-Jan 2020-2021 look that we don't want to see. The Euro Ensemble is different (better). GEFS is kind of in between, though the 12z coming in looks a little better this run.
but this day 10 look raises a little interest
This may be the culprit for the CFS's current chilly second half of Dec forecast...it's taking a slow drag through 7-8-1 within the COD....the ol' GaWx cold route
December hasn’t even started yet. There’s nothing depressing about it.
It’s big stick. Nothing positive comes from big stick
Considering we're in a drought sort of, I would take cold rain over dry at this point.
