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Pattern Dazzling December

Pretty bad when we can’t to anything with this. Obviously it’s early December, obviously, but I just hope this isn’t foreshadowing how the rest of our winter will go. But it probably is C23AF4E6-7B3B-44D4-8169-8B63D3022FE2.png
 
Just needed the PNA to cooperate and it was going to get stupid cold with an active storm track. Oh well. Now we wait in the bathtub to slosh so we can try again at some point.
 
The pacific is soooo bad
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The way the PV gets stretched out and sliced in half by that ridge is a thing of beauty. I just can’t believe how temporary it was. If only it were January ? 8BE0D7CD-0BF9-47D9-9639-92509A8A642F.gif
 
Folks (in NC) needed to get over next week and even next weekend. After that we'll see changes. They will come incrementally
 
I think the progression right now is totally fine, if mjo propagates like grit posted, we already have the NAO cooperation, we should be sitting pretty by Christmas time. Would rather the best pattern come in prime climo instead of early December.
Living and dying with every Op GFS run is too stressful. If winter sucks we can’t change it, just have to hope for the best and right now things look pretty damn good!

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For the majority of yall late December into January you start to get into prime climo for cold and snow. You don't want a great pattern now. And originally the pattern was always supposed to change or start changing around the 15th... Patience is always needed especially east of the mountains. It's only December 4th....
 
Hypsometric said:
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Trend changes with the NAO block are favorable. However, changes with the Aleutian ridging are not favorable, thus changes along the Pacific coast are also not favorable.

Whatever cold can make it into the US with that pattern should eventually spill east and south, as it modifies, into our region. But any sustained big cold is probably off the table for a good while.

The Euro at 240 has the famous Left Foot pattern (aka crotch kick). The GFS is similar. Not the best.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Gonna start dumping some legit cold in northwest Canada with that look, problem is initially we’re just gonna be fed 25%-50% of it behind pacific polar waves breaking off the main longwave trough over the west, but it’s better then what we were seeing I guess. It would be really cool if the Alaskan ridge could trend stronger and cutoff and ridge bridge to the Atlantic block
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The good news with that look is that there is more cold buildings and we’re not flooding the source areas with Pacific air.
 
Rain Cold said:
Trend changes with the NAO block are favorable. However, changes with the Aleutian ridging are not favorable, thus changes along the Pacific coast are also not favorable.

Whatever cold can make it into the US with that pattern should eventually spill east and south, as it modifies, into our region. But any sustained big cold is probably off the table for a good while.

The Euro at 240 has the famous Left Foot pattern (aka crotch kick). The GFS is similar. Not the best.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Gonna start dumping some legit cold in northwest Canada with that look, problem is initially we’re just gonna be fed 25%-50% of it behind pacific polar waves breaking off the main longwave trough over the west, but it’s better then what we were seeing I guess. It would be really cool if the Alaskan ridge could trend stronger and cutoff and ridge bridge to the Atlantic block
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It definitely appears (to me) as though we are trending towards a step-down, slower progression into a colder pattern. It does look like a lot of the ensembles and ops are beginning to more consistently show an evolution towards what some of those extended Euro runs were showing, but if we can hold the block I do think by the last week of December there could be an opportunity depending on how the undercutting energy evolves and manifests under the block and also what happens with the AK ridging (or lack thereof).

Overall, it's definitely a less-optimal version of what initially appeared with part of the TPV sliding under the block, but the Greenland blocking is a constant and is already trending stronger as we move forward in time (not unexpected), so future trends could continue to be positive towards a gradual 7-10 day step-down into a southern Mid-Atlantic / northern southeast wintry threat closer to Christmas or just after.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Gonna start dumping some legit cold in northwest Canada with that look, problem is initially we’re just gonna be fed 25%-50% of it behind pacific polar waves breaking off the main longwave trough over the west, but it’s better then what we were seeing I guess. It would be really cool if the Alaskan ridge could trend stronger and cutoff and ridge bridge to the Atlantic block
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Something that would change things in a hurry would be to see a low pressure get wound up strongly up under the block tracking thru the Ohio Valley and off the NE coast....not implausible in this setup
 
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