starsfan68
Member
0z is never a good run
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yeah goodnight lol. Evolution around Alaska this gefs run is depressing
starsfan68
Member
Depressing?
lol even with the earlier pacific struggle the GEFS is starting to progress with the pattern anyways. I guess not a complete loss
Patterns locked in! West coast trough, Seattle getting a good snow, hard to break that pattern. It’s been pretty stubborn
Especially in the La Niña background state, any episodes of suppressed storm tracks will be transient, and entirely dependent on the strength and location of the block. As it is right now, the blocking is situated quite poleward, so we ridge down here I think.
6Z GFS is bedazzling! 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That’s a good looking Miller B! I’ve always been a fan
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Need a nice 1040 high pressure in Michigan to turn that into a true Miller A snowstorm. Right now there is not a sufficient cold air source. Hope that changes.
Last nights EPS run 
NCSNOW
Member
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Watch next Friday-ish, espeacilly if you are along I40 corridor. 6z GFS is getting closer, has a messy lakes low. Euro, CAN and GFS just need a little more press wth the forming Block. See how that trends. Could sneak one in here for a few of us in 7-8 days.
AJ1013
Member
Dazzling low of 73F this morning. Nice and sweaty ?
06z gefs looking great 
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Didn’t realize the EPS last night was going for Aleutian low/+PNA/-EPO
This definitely might be a time to watch for I-40 north, but more importantly I think this could be a system that helps out with getting snowpack built up in the Northeast and Mid-AtlanticWatch next Friday-ish, espeacilly if you are along I40 corridor. 6z GFS is getting closer, has a messy lakes low. Euro, CAN and GFS just need a little more press wth the forming Block. See how that trends. Could sneak one in here for a few of us in 7-8 days.
Something that I keep noticing and really like is how the deepest heights are showing up right over Baffin Bay…. that’s a prime location for blocking to do the southeast the most good
whatalife
Moderator
The models continue to build a nice snow pack to our north. Things look really nice for the SE in general as we get later into the month of December. I just hope the rug does not get pulled out from under us with all that beautiful blocking being shown over top.
I like the 17th-25th, we’re gonna progress thru a pattern where western energy gets booted each time something dives into the pacific from the NPAC ridge, KU style. 1st and second likely go to the NE/MA and perhaps climo favored areas. that then sets us up later around the 17-25th with those first storms bombing out under the block over the NE US/Atlantic and becoming our confluence so to speak shunting the track South each time. That’s how many NAOs have worked anyways around here . Step down process, need MA/NE to eat first with snow cover and there storms becoming our confluence
Hypsometric
Member
With all the talk of Dec. 2010, I decided to look back at how the month evolved day by day. Pretty interesting to see how the Christmas storm developed.
Here is the composite anomaly for RDU big snow storms (> 6" in a single day), and how they evolved from 5 days out to the time of the event. As many have said, this certainly is our best opportunity at wintry weather around Christmas since 2010.
EPS (and all the ensembles) are certainly getting there beyond D10, so it's certainly possible an RDU big snow threat could be looming as we approach the week of Christmas if things hold/improve.
Here is the composite anomaly for RDU big snow storms (> 6" in a single day), and how they evolved from 5 days out to the time of the event. As many have said, this certainly is our best opportunity at wintry weather around Christmas since 2010.
EPS (and all the ensembles) are certainly getting there beyond D10, so it's certainly possible an RDU big snow threat could be looming as we approach the week of Christmas if things hold/improve.
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I agree with this. I think the block is a lock. Eyes on the Pacific evolution, as that will matter to the extent of the cold that makes it into the SE.