We’ve already come down to watching the CMC
It’s great on picking up on wedges, not sure about pattern changes
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
It’s great on picking up on wedges, not sure about pattern changes
What about the stovepipe drop in low, from the +PN………..?Man I want my split flow undercutting Baja wave this year. Jimmy been waiting too long
griteater
Member
And the GFS is a great model??
Weenier cmce run lol 
Hypsometric
Member
00z CMC and 12z Euro pretty similar (for op runs at this range) in make-believe land. Same general ideas at least.
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L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Seems like the GEFS just keeps getting worse
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Who’s staying up for the Euro??
I mean, the overnight & morning runs weren't bad at all.
I’ll tell you what the positive trends continue for even the stuff closer to us. December 10-20 still valid with current guidance for pattern change. Oh and there’s this lol most recent run even though it’s not saying much
It’s almost like a big western based -NAO always mutes the SER given enough time ?
AJ1013
Member
70F here with mostly clear skies and a 62F dew. Nice summer morning ??
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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This was about to be solid
Hypsometric
Member
Trend changes with the NAO block are favorable. However, changes with the Aleutian ridging are not favorable, thus changes along the Pacific coast are also not favorable.
Whatever cold can make it into the US with that pattern should eventually spill east and south, as it modifies, into our region. But any sustained big cold is probably off the table for a good while.
The Euro at 240 has the famous Left Foot pattern (aka crotch kick). The GFS is similar. Not the best.
Gonna start dumping some legit cold in northwest Canada with that look, problem is initially we’re just gonna be fed 25%-50% of it behind pacific polar waves breaking off the main longwave trough over the west, but it’s better then what we were seeing I guess. It would be really cool if the Alaskan ridge could trend stronger and cutoff and ridge bridge to the Atlantic block
The good news with that look is that there is more cold buildings and we’re not flooding the source areas with Pacific air.
Hypsometric
Member
It definitely appears (to me) as though we are trending towards a step-down, slower progression into a colder pattern. It does look like a lot of the ensembles and ops are beginning to more consistently show an evolution towards what some of those extended Euro runs were showing, but if we can hold the block I do think by the last week of December there could be an opportunity depending on how the undercutting energy evolves and manifests under the block and also what happens with the AK ridging (or lack thereof).
Overall, it's definitely a less-optimal version of what initially appeared with part of the TPV sliding under the block, but the Greenland blocking is a constant and is already trending stronger as we move forward in time (not unexpected), so future trends could continue to be positive towards a gradual 7-10 day step-down into a southern Mid-Atlantic / northern southeast wintry threat closer to Christmas or just after.
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griteater
Member
Something that would change things in a hurry would be to see a low pressure get wound up strongly up under the block tracking thru the Ohio Valley and off the NE coast....not implausible in this setup