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Pattern Dazzling December

Loganelliott99 said:
I didn’t mean to be rude! I’m just not very educated in volcanoes and how the effect weather


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That's okay, I wasn't sure if you didn't understand the dynamics surrounding volcanoes, or didn't see the significance of the ocean cooling.
 
Hypsometric said:
Take your pick.

View attachment 124629
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This is a great illustration of the difference it makes depending on the location of the block. Last night’s 0z has the block still centered over Greenland at this timeframe and it allows the SER to flex more, while today’s 12z the block is quicker to be centered near Baffin Bay and it forces the SER to flatten out and allow that TPV to slide underneath.
 
Ollie Williams said:
That's okay, I wasn't sure if you didn't understand the dynamics surrounding volcanoes, or didn't see the significance of the ocean cooling.
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I wonder if the decreased ocean temps will lead to less water vapor in the atmosphere, dryer air overall, and less precipitation and also, more cooling as water vapor accounts for 95% of Earth's greenhouse effect. It takes a lot of energy to heat the oceans and a lot of energy must be removed in order to drop the water temp. A monster volcanic eruption and historic low solar output would do it. Reduce the water vapor, too, and look out below. CO2 concentrations are way to small to mitigate this process.

Food for thought...
 
Haven’t seen much about the 12z EPS. Was it bad?


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Loganelliott99 said:
Yeah. This run Doesn’t look too promising. Worse than 12z


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Pacific is a parade of troughs into the west coast. Not ideal.

But the block sets up at 180 with strong high pressure starting to build in.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_31.png

By 216, we have wedging. Nice block and 50/50 in place. Not a warm look, but until the Pacific gets repaired, it's not going to be very cold.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_37.png

By 264, it's still not warm. The blocking has retrograded with ridging more into Canada. TT doesn't have 240 yet. Not sure where this goes, but the Pacific still looks like trash. But, there's no SE ridge in any of these images, and it should be pretty chilly, I would guess, by looking at H5.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_45.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Pacific is a parade of troughs into the west coast. Not ideal.

But the block sets up at 180 with strong high pressure starting to build in.

View attachment 124637

By 216, we have wedging. Nice block and 50/50 in place. Not a warm look, but until the Pacific gets repaired, it's not going to be very cold.

View attachment 124638

By 264, it's still not warm. The blocking has retrograded with ridging more into Canada. TT doesn't have 240 yet. Not sure where this goes, but the Pacific still looks like trash. But, there's no SE ridge in any of these images, and it should be pretty chilly, I would guess, by looking at H5.

View attachment 124639
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Seems like a parade of cool rains. Yet some claim the pacific doesn’t mean anything. It burns us every year


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I made a nice thread on my thoughts summarizing the overall changes being seen in NWP the past few days (towards more -PNA)



I also made this nice explainer graphic for the current -EAMT event.
Capture2.JPG



ICYMI, I also made this pair of graphics a while back explaining the basics of mountain torque & its effect on the jet stream.

Hopefully you all find some of my 2 cents and explanations helpful

 
Webberweather53 said:
I made a nice thread on my thoughts summarizing the overall changes being seen in NWP the past few days (towards more -PNA)



I also made this nice explainer graphic for the current -EAMT event.
View attachment 124641



ICYMI, I also made this pair of graphics a while back explaining the basics of mountain torque & its effect on the jet stream.

Hopefully you all find some of my 2 cents and explanations helpful

Click to expand...


Very helpful. Nice work Eric


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