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Pattern Dazzling December

Onto 0z. 18z GEFS is worse than 12z.
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Loganelliott99 said:
Seems like a parade of cool rains. Yet some claim the pacific doesn’t mean anything. It burns us every year
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Not sure where this 'Pacific doesn't matter' narrative originated...I can't say I really see that on the board here, but maybe I'm missing it....but we need all the help we can get in all parts of the world to make it snow down here....not to mention, a lot of luck. But we certainly don't want to see a bunch of troughing up and down the west coast (a la the new 18z GEFS)

But for me personally, the heavy -AO/-NAO pattern is my favorite. It doesn't always work of course, but there's something a bit mesmerizing seeing the model runs come in with that big block forming, and with the slowing of the downstream flow over the Atlantic, and with everything in the flow backing up behind it such that, in the really good ones, the entire height pattern just drops uniformly south. It's like watching a giant wreck at Talladega and all the chaos that ensues behind it.

Also, these types of patterns are associated with some of the iconic snowy and/or cold winters / periods across the south, like 1935-1936, Jan 1940, Feb-Mar 1960, Jan 1966, 1968-1969, 1969-1970, 1976-1977, 1978-1979, Jan 1982, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 2010-2011
 
griteater said:
Not sure where this 'Pacific doesn't matter' narrative originated...I can't say I really see that on the board here, but maybe I'm missing it....but we need all the help we can get in all parts of the world to make it snow down here....not to mention, a lot of luck. But we certainly don't want to see a bunch of troughing up and down the west coast (a la the new 18z GEFS)

But for me personally, the heavy -AO/-NAO pattern is my favorite. It doesn't always work of course, but there's something a bit mesmerizing seeing the model runs come in with that big block forming, and with the slowing of the downstream flow over the Atlantic, and with everything in the flow backing up behind it such that, in the really good ones, the entire height pattern just drops uniformly south. It's like watching a giant wreck at Talladega and all the chaos that ensues behind it.

Also, these types of patterns are associated with some of the iconic snowy and/or cold winters / periods across the south, like 1935-1936, Jan 1940, Feb-Mar 1960, Jan 1966, 1968-1969, 1969-1970, 1976-1977, 1978-1979, Jan 1982, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 2010-2011
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I Always love your posts explaining everything so well. Thank you.


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griteater said:
Not sure where this 'Pacific doesn't matter' narrative originated...I can't say I really see that on the board here, but maybe I'm missing it....but we need all the help we can get in all parts of the world to make it snow down here....not to mention, a lot of luck. But we certainly don't want to see a bunch of troughing up and down the west coast (a la the new 18z GEFS)

But for me personally, the heavy -AO/-NAO pattern is my favorite. It doesn't always work of course, but there's something a bit mesmerizing seeing the model runs come in with that big block forming, and with the slowing of the downstream flow over the Atlantic, and with everything in the flow backing up behind it such that, in the really good ones, the entire height pattern just drops uniformly south. It's like watching a giant wreck at Talladega and all the chaos that ensues behind it.

Also, these types of patterns are associated with some of the iconic snowy and/or cold winters / periods across the south, like 1935-1936, Jan 1940, Feb-Mar 1960, Jan 1966, 1968-1969, 1969-1970, 1976-1977, 1978-1979, Jan 1982, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 2010-2011
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Yeah history is on our side. Hopefully it progresses and we get rolling by the last 10 days of the month. It's going to be very disappointing if be manage to blow that type of block. Been over a decade since we had that and they don't come around often. We need to cash in
 
I think we will start seeing the effects of favorable tropical forcing as we get closer and closer. I throw next week into the trash as -PNA and west coast troughing takes hold. As we move towards the middle of December I expect our -NAO block will continue to build and we start seeing a relaxation out west. I wouldn't call for a +PNA yet as that is just rare these days it feels like, but at least a neutral PNA which honestly at this point is a win. We aren't in peak climo yet so let's not get too over board on expecting any type of winter weather until the back half of December, but I think the pattern is progressing about as well as we can hope for. Need to continue to hold the -NAO which I think is the most sure fire thing at this point. If we can keep low amp and COD MJO, then I think we have a really good shot to score towards the end of the month. We don't need the whole TPV on our side of the earth, but just a piece or 2 with some energy coming out of the Pacific Northwest and boom you're cooking with grease.
 
griteater said:
Not sure where this 'Pacific doesn't matter' narrative originated...I can't say I really see that on the board here, but maybe I'm missing it....but we need all the help we can get in all parts of the world to make it snow down here....not to mention, a lot of luck. But we certainly don't want to see a bunch of troughing up and down the west coast (a la the new 18z GEFS)

But for me personally, the heavy -AO/-NAO pattern is my favorite. It doesn't always work of course, but there's something a bit mesmerizing seeing the model runs come in with that big block forming, and with the slowing of the downstream flow over the Atlantic, and with everything in the flow backing up behind it such that, in the really good ones, the entire height pattern just drops uniformly south. It's like watching a giant wreck at Talladega and all the chaos that ensues behind it.

Also, these types of patterns are associated with some of the iconic snowy and/or cold winters / periods across the south, like 1935-1936, Jan 1940, Feb-Mar 1960, Jan 1966, 1968-1969, 1969-1970, 1976-1977, 1978-1979, Jan 1982, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, Dec-Jan 2010-2011
Click to expand...

My hope is we can win in this -NAO regime, and that it lines up the way it should, the TPV sets up where it should despite the west not being great. It can't be awful with a huge pacific low for sure. But I just doubt we'll have a great block AND a good pacific at the same time. Even 9-10 had a not so great pacific.

Right now the Atlantic seems our best shot. We'll likely need to deal with that and hope the pacific doesn't kill it too bad. My guess is when the pacific really improves significantly, the block may be gone. Thats all a bit anecdotal I know, but just from my past weenie experience of not having both sides in our favor.

Most recent events we've had seem to have originated from a good pacific and good timing. So honestly I'm not sure what to root for anymore.
 
SnowNiner said:
My hope is we can win in this -NAO regime, and that it lines up the way it should, the TPV sets up where it should despite the west not being great. It can't be awful with a huge pacific low for sure. But I just doubt we'll have a great block AND a good pacific at the same time. Even 9-10 had a not so great pacific.

Right now the Atlantic seems our best shot. We'll likely need to deal with that and hope the pacific doesn't kill it too bad. My guess is when the pacific really improves significantly, the block may be gone. Thats all a bit anecdotal I know, but just from my past weenie experience of not having both sides in our favor.

Most recent events we've had seem to have originated from a good pacific and good timing. So honestly I'm not sure what to root for anymore.
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I tend to root for the -NAO/-AO combo. As grits post above shows historically it works. I remember reading on here that usually the forces that cause a -NAO usually destroy the -EPO and vise versa. So I does seem really hard to get a great Pacific with a Great Atlantic. Give me the great Atlantic and a ok Pacific and let's roll the dice.
 
I would not give up on some winter action here in NC around the middle of the month. The models have been showing a storm here around that time for at least one run the past few days.
 
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