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Pattern Dazzling December

At this point, we just gotta hitch our wagons to the Euro days 8 to 13 based on how it is handling Alaska and the west coast (00z Ens Mean and Control Runs shown). In the old days, we'd be riding high in a nice looking Boomer Schooner...but nowadays, it's a dilapidated wagon hooked to a borrowed mule

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Loganelliott99 said:
And you’re leaving out the most important thing for winter storms. The PNA is not positive.


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But I don’t understand why people are losing hope. It’s looking right on schedule. A flip to a cooler pattern around the 15- 20th. The latest GEFS,CMCE, and EPS all looked decent for mid month. We’ll be okay


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Itryatgolf said:
Until we get more of a -epo and less of a -pna, we are chasing unicorns. Patience is required
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Mid to late month is when the PNA should chill out. That was the idea all along. The models just gave us false hope that it would happen sooner


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Loganelliott99 said:
And you’re leaving out the most important thing for winter storms. The PNA is not positive.


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I actually did a little bit deeper look into this on the ncsu.edu climate page, and for North Carolina at least, the -NAO is the most important teleconnection for winter storms. Months with an observed -NAO have a 25% increase in snow days. Now we’re obviously up against it if the PNA is much higher lower than -1 which is why we’re not going to get much help the next week. Something else interesting I found with regard to the PNA is that a +PNA has more of a positive impact on winter weather chances in El Niño years… this makes sense because often times periods of +PNA in a La Niña often lead to very suppressed storm tracks, fast flow, and very little moisture to work with.
 
It takes time sure. But changes started the 1st week in Dec and we were rolling by the 2nd week of December in 2010. So our top analog year for this -NAO clearly isn't going to follow the same progression. Maybe it finally gets there who knows
 
Chazwin said:
I actually did a little bit deeper look into this on the ncsu.edu climate page, and for North Carolina at least, the -NAO is the most important teleconnection for winter storms. Months with an observed -NAO have a 25% increase in snow days. Now we’re obviously up against it if the PNA is much higher lower than -1 which is why we’re not going to get much help the next week. Something else interesting I found with regard to the PNA is that a +PNA has more of a positive impact on winter weather chances in El Niño years… this makes sense because often times periods of +PNA in a La Niña often lead to very suppressed storm tracks, fast flow, and very little moisture to work with.
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FYI - I believe they defined a snow day as any day where any monitor outside of the mountains in NC recorded 1” or more of snow. FWIW.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
It takes time sure. But changes started the 1st week in Dec and we were rolling by the 2nd week of December in 2010. So our top analog year for this -NAO clearly isn't going to follow the same progression. Maybe it finally gets there who knows
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Something to keep in mind though is that we are looking at timing differences compared to 2010… back then the processes had started about two weeks earlier and if you remember, there was some very mild weather leading into Thanksgiving that year with some severe weather across the Deep South
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
It takes time sure. But changes started the 1st week in Dec and we were rolling by the 2nd week of December in 2010. So our top analog year for this -NAO clearly isn't going to follow the same progression. Maybe it finally gets there who knows
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Agree, here in the Midlands I remember some very cold nights the first week of Dec in 2010. I feel like we even hit the upper teens one morning. Just a fantastic month altogether. So many small events that led to & set the tone to the big one.
 
Chazwin said:
Something to keep in mind though is that we are looking at timing differences compared to 2010… back then the processes had started about two weeks earlier and if you remember, there was some very mild weather leading into Thanksgiving that year with some severe weather across the Deep South
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Looking back, the initial block in 2010 moved into Greenland around Nov 20th. This time, it's Dec 5.....so, 15 days later. Of course, no 2 years are alike
 
Looking at the teleconnections this morning, I think Fro might be onto something about his 17th-25th timeframe for storm potential. The MJO stays in COD and basically close to phases 1 and 2. The AO stays solidly negative. By the 15th-17th the PNA is almost right at a neutral, rising to -.3 to -.1, and the NAO while staying solidly negative relaxes somewhat in strength…. this is often times where we see storms develop
 
Chazwin said:
Something to keep in mind though is that we are looking at timing differences compared to 2010… back then the processes had started about two weeks earlier and if you remember, there was some very mild weather leading into Thanksgiving that year with some severe weather across the Deep South
Click to expand...
Good point. Maybe we'll get there and be cold by the 20th and be solidly in a winter storm pattern by months end into the 1st half of January when climo is peaking
 
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