If you can I’d love to see more about the storm I mentioned the other day that came around the 8-9th of that month. Big ice/sleet storm for CLT metro
Note here on the GEFS how the jet in the Pacific moves equatorward (south) and extends east. This is what we want to see as it allows the NE Siberia Low appendage to drop south and east with ridging pumped into AK...and it allows the Aleutian Low to finds its happy home (2nd loop). Getting the Pac jet to extend farther east, to say, the longitude of Hawaii would get us into more +PNA (or -EPO / +PNA). Whether you want that or not depends on where you live (farther west, farther east) and whether we have a big -NAO (more -NAO = more eastward trough over the U.S.)
In contrast, if the jet stays poleward (north), you get low pressure pumped into AK (+EPO / -PNA). If the Pac jet stays retracted to the west, you get the North Pac ridge located farther west (Aleutian ridge) and -PNA.
Gotcha Eric thanks. That’s an excellent image of +EAMT, hang it in the Louvre! Knew the part about jet extension / retraction with EAMT, but didn’t know the part about equatorward and poleward. Makes sense though, thanksMakes sense with the +EAMT that looks to be in the cards near the end of next week, because positive mtn torque (& associated surface highs) flux atmospheric angular momentum equatorward & also extend the jet immediately downstream, whereas negative mountain torque redistributes it poleward + retracts the jet stream.
Here we go folks!
my ex and i got in a fight once because she thought my phone passcode would be her birthday or our anniversary or something like that, she was disappointed to learn it was 122389. i told her i would reconsider when she put 15 inches of snow in wilmington
I wanted to touch on this quickly- that storm fizzles because the parent shortwave around the 4 corners runs into a brick wall of a surface high east of the rockies. surface lows and shortwaves have a mutualistic relationship- cold air advection west of a surface low will lower the heights at 500mb, while warm air advection east of the low will raise heights to the east. this makes the shortwave amplify, which makes the surface low stronger... you see the feedback. this gets shunted when surface cyclogenesis is basically impossible in Texas/CO and the shortwave fizzles. this didn't scream suppression to me.
Wasn't this like very orange just a couple days back?
Building blocks under day 5. It’s getting harder to avoid thisSome severe weather coming out in front of that rumble maybe?
Yep, for us I’m sure we escape via cad
Yep. 18Z GFS about 6 degrees colder for that period
Absolutely… this isn’t fantasy land anymore.
Yeah, you may be there when the high-res models get in range
Seen this movie a few times.
Normally the table setter doesn’t produce but we’re really not far away from trending to something, typically models have a tendency to shorten wavelengths under blocks and shove energy South closer to go time under blocky patternsTrend loop of last 4 GFS runs. We are headed south boys and girls. Closed high along the W Canada coastline - my personal favorite.
The W Atl ridge is caving as the 2 waves are getting closer together. They need to just kiss and make up and get on and we'd all be in good shape
Oh, I'm just referring to the period after
Just your everyday 1051 high! Looks toasty!
This run of the GFS is a disaster if you want snow or sustained cold for the majority of the SE. Fortunately, it's the GFS.
Agreed…that storm sets the table for potential goodies that come after it. That being said, there are definitely clear trends that show the potential is there for at least some onset icing for the NW NC Piedmont, Foothills and up into VA. Also the back side looks to possibly set up a good NW flow snow event for the mountains
If this model is so bad, why is it still used. Why not just get rid of it.
