Pattern Dazzling December

[RBR71]

****NOTE****

Just fyi, we've been discussing moderating this thread a little tighter than we have been. Primarily it's that time of year, traffic picks up, some great discussion going on and many (especially newcomers) don't want to weed through banter post to read the detailed discussion post. So with that in mind, help us out by thinking about what you post before you post it, ensure it's in the correct thread and utilize the banter/whamby threads more, especially the "this a good look?", "hope it gets cold for Christmas", "oh no we suck again" post. Just to name a few.

Don't take offense if comments get moved or deleted.

Thanks,
Meanager

 

[Hypsometric]

Nice trend loop. Others may have commented on this, but we are actually getting a tiny piece of the original TPV over Canada sucked in underneath the initial block. The ICON seems to have the best looking evolution in terms of what happens next

On the 1st image, you can see the tear drop here just east of Hudson Bay at day 3...that's the small piece of the Canada TPV. The small wave over Nebraska will combine with it (and the remnant low off NEngland), as seen on the 2nd image at day 5. Then on the 3rd image at day 7, the low is wound up in the Canadian Maritimes....but what the ICON does the best compared to the other models is it brings a piece of the western wave out quicker, and that would eventually start the domino effect where the flow gets backed up severely, cold air sinks south, and we get the very nice looking west based -NAO block from S Greenland to Hudson Bay as low pressure then winds up over New England and off the coast. CMC isn't far off from this, but it keeps the Pac wave more consolidated and doesn't send it east as early.

Yep to all of your points and also the fact that these positive trends are occurring between D3-D7 as you pointed out. If we can get that initial piece of western energy to eject sooner, we could set the table for something wintry even sooner but it's definitely going to take some time for guidance to hone in on how that will pan out. The big takeaway to me is the blocking is trending better, and now we have a clear path to getting the wound up low under the block -- which was in doubt in my mind for some time. With those players on the field, we'll finally have a functioning west-based -NAO and folks can make up their own mind if it increases the chances for southeastern U.S. winter storms

 

[griteater]

Euro coming in sexy day 7-9

 

[Ron Burgundy]

The GEFS looks fantastic so far .... You've got to learn to post less and pay attention to what people with much more experience are telling you.

I’ve been on here for six years and the only things I post are obs and funny gifs. I guess it’s because I realize I don’t know enough to elevate the discussion.

But, hey - that’s just me…

 

[packfan98]

The Euro and Canadian have the SE getting cold by day 10. The GFS suite takes a few more days, but eventually gets us into a favorable pattern by the end. Hopefully, we can have something we can track showing up on the models by later next week.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol I thought CPC was saying warm will dominate, this doesn’t look very warm lol outside the next 2 days

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Euro coming in sexy day 7-9

Question for you grit.. are you concerned that it’s possible that big trough gets delayed some and that low off the California coast could pull it back and suddenly reinforce a -PNA regime? Or is that blocking over top helping to progress the flow to where low pressure will dominate underneath all across the US ?

 

[Chazwin]

lol I thought CPC was saying warm will dominate, this doesn’t look very warm lol outside the next 2 days View attachment 125044

Yeah we are definitely in a CAD pattern starting after tomorrow. It’ll be interesting next week to look at how the temperature anomalies compare between CAD areas and those west of the Apps.

 

[Hypsometric]

Question for you grit.. are you concerned that it’s possible that big trough gets delayed some and that low off the California coast could pull it back and suddenly reinforce a -PNA regime? Or is that blocking over top helping to progress the flow to where low pressure will dominate underneath all across the US ?

Not grit, but IMO with that strong jet behind it there's no way it's going to get hung in the southwest. What's even better is directly behind this a split flow is setting up - with a west-based -NAO out in front of it....if we can just reel this setup in it's going to get interesting before long.

 

[LukeBarrette]

I’m going to keep saying it, the cold is coming

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

I believe Less ridging out west is worse.

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Certainly no pro here, but I think what you are picking up on is the the progression GIF makes it look like the isobars "drop" a bit south in the West. Actually you're seeing more of a "buckle" in the bars to the west shortening the wavelength, and concurrently seeing more of a dive with the eastern trough. That is what we want to see and it would be interesting to see the next frames to see if that continues. Pay attention to the little numbers; we want the lower numbers South and East!

 

[iGRXY]

 

[SNOWMANN]

Eh I wouldn’t say that. Depends on what you are looking at and when. If its the Mean in the short range <120 hrs yes, if >240 that is a good way to get really disappointed if you buy in completely to the Ensembles and discount the OP.

Yeah I just look for signals in the long range.

 

[BullCityWx]

I think with that setup and looking at RH, you may see some snow showers in NC with that setup next Friday. It wouldn’t be much but mood flakes are mood flakes.

 

[Tarheelwx]

Looks like some good chilly weather for the south, but no major cold...... at least not year. I'd like to see a below normal Canada as well.
TW

 

[Chazwin]

Looks like some good chilly weather for the south, but no major cold...... at least not year. I'd like to see a below normal Canada as well.
TW

You typically don’t see Canada below normal at the same time as the south.

 

[iGRXY]

Looks like some good chilly weather for the south, but no major cold...... at least not year. I'd like to see a below normal Canada as well.
TW

To dislodge cold air to the south you want Canada warmer than average. Which is what we are getting with this double barrel block currently.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s some good stuff, I don’t get the “no real cold air” talk that’s some real cold air right here from the -EPO

 

[Hypsometric]

That’s some good stuff, I don’t get the “no real cold air” talk that’s some real cold air right here from the -EPO View attachment 125049View attachment 125050View attachment 125051View attachment 125052

Pretty much a textbook -EPO, west-based -NAO cold drain from AK leaving AK above normal and everywhere southeast well-below.

 

[Hypsometric]

All the usual caveats apply here but this is a pretty impressive number of members of the 12z EPS with snow at GSO this far out.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

that’s your classic overrunning look across the SE with a TPV In SE Canada and energy out west turning 500mb flow WSWly and cold air at the sfc, a pretty icy look, lots of noise from the EPS around this time as well with small snow means but decent amount of members with wintry precip

 

[griteater]

Question for you grit.. are you concerned that it’s possible that big trough gets delayed some and that low off the California coast could pull it back and suddenly reinforce a -PNA regime? Or is that blocking over top helping to progress the flow to where low pressure will dominate underneath all across the US ?

Not grit, but IMO with that strong jet behind it there's no way it's going to get hung in the southwest. What's even better is directly behind this a split flow is setting up - with a west-based -NAO out in front of it....if we can just reel this setup in it's going to get interesting before long.

Yeah agree, the Cali wave should kick on out, and once it setups up shop over the NE and off the NE coast, that would be the time for a potential winter storm chance. I think the bigger question is what happens down the line. I would like to see the Atlantic side anomaly centers be more dominant (like CMC Ens - 1st image) instead of the Pacific side anomaly centers being dominant (like EPS - 2nd image.....GEFS is like this as well). But at any rate, first step is to get the initial cool/cold plunge in here

 

[ATLwxfan]

For NGA 12z GFS gets into upper 30’s for lows but nothing too exciting. A couple days with mid 40’s high temps. The ridge really wants to fight off any significant intrusion of cold.

I mean it could be worse though.

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[Myfrotho704_]

For NGA 12z GFS gets into upper 30’s for lows but nothing too exciting. A couple days with mid 40’s high temps. The ridge really wants to fight off any significant intrusion of cold.

I mean it could be worse though.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Question is why are you using the long range GFS as a base for temps when ensembles are in use for that to account for spreads

 

[Myfrotho704_]

it’s the fact this is trending better under day 10. let me say this the least weeniest way… we’re gonna pop a winter storm soon if we hold this look, trending to a low bombing out around Atlantic Canada = confluence. and the western energy keeping energy rollin in that suppressed height field.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

it’s the fact this is trending better under day 10. let me say this the least weeniest way… we’re gonna pop a winter storm soon if we hold this look, trending to a low bombing out around Atlantic Canada = confluence. and the western energy keeping energy rollin in that suppressed height field. View attachment 125065

Not only a pattern that can produce snow but ice is very much in play as well with something like this. Plenty of low level cold available here.

 

[griteater]

Ed doesn't post much, but he is one of the best out there with Strat discussion. No hype / high knowledge

Ed with another post today on the stratosphere. Again, this is a no hype / high knowledge guy with respect to stratosphere discussion. A SSW would likely open the door for an extended blocking regime if one were to occur

 

[FallsLake]

18z GFS looks to show a better push of cold air out of Canada:
~day 7 (nice 1062 high-----Last run had it at 1046):

 

[griteater]

GFS is spitting out some massive -EPO ridging on some of these runs

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CMC looked good and was setting up to drop the hammer out of the Arctic

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

You love to see that jet stream buckle. That’s where the magic happens ?? ?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

It’s a shame there’s no cold air around in this pattern

 

[ATLwxfan]

Question is why are you using the long range GFS as a base for temps when ensembles are in use for that to account for spreads

Fair question. GEFS was better but keeps the core of the cold to the northwest. Seasonable and reasonable.


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[Ollie Williams]

Incoming on the GFS

 

[Ron Burgundy]

View attachment 125071
It’s a shame there’s no cold air around in this pattern

Lmao @ the ATL heat island

 

[CaryWx]

Ed with another post today on the stratosphere. Again, this is a no hype / high knowledge guy with respect to stratosphere discussion. A SSW would likely open the door for an extended blocking regime if one were to occur

grit, Don't these things (SSW) take a couple weeks to have an effect for us locally in the SE?

 

[Mitch West]

sheesh

 

[FallsLake]

Lets hope whatever storm we get in the future is not this:
freezing rain totals on the 18z GFS ~day 15:

 

[Chazwin]

Lets hope whatever storm we get in the future is not this:
freezing rain totals on the 18z GFS ~day 15:
View attachment 125074

Obviously that’s way too far out there to worry about specifics, but that’s the timeframe that I’ve had my eye on. Also hate to say but the NC Piedmont and SC upstate are definitely due for one of these

 

[Deleted member 609]

Torch