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Pattern Dazzling December

Chazwin said:
All great points. With the blocking that is developing, things are often a bit of a step down process. That’s why I’ve always been convinced that the potential for late next week and next weekend is a threat for the northeast. Again though I don’t think that’s a bad thing, because I would really like to see a good snowpack get in place up there as we approach what I think will be the time frame that we could see some potential… that time has always been from about the 15th on.
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Ole carrot dangling front the donkey process I call it. Until things start changing in the pacific. Good luck
 
Chazwin said:
and that that’s why I’m looking at from the 15th and onward… that’s when the PNA looks to go to about -.5 to -.7
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Yessir that’s what I’m thinking. We will be sitting pretty once that happens.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
This is the weirdest ------- 500mb pattern I’ve ever seen that’s somehow torching us View attachment 124616
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The block is still a bit too far to the east which allows the SER ridge to flex some. I have a feeling though that much like how later this weekend and early next week was supposed to torch a few days ago, we’ll see these come back in line closer to seasonal
 
Chazwin said:
The block is still a bit too far to the east which allows the SER ridge to flex some. I have a feeling though that much like how later this weekend and early next week was supposed to torch a few days ago, we’ll see these come back in line closer to seasonal
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How far east is it?
 
starsfan68 said:
How far east is it?
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It’s centered basically over southern Greenland. The best location for it to be to keep the SER in check is near Baffin Bay. It’s still backing to the west at this point so that’s why it’s gonna take a few more days after this to really do us any good. This step down process that’s really interesting to watch develop
 
Not as good as 6z but I don’t hate.
81608a0f7b5871d22fc4f3b4b6bae560.jpg



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Man the end of the 12z GFS is gonna make the severe folk weak in the knees.


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Meteorologist1999 said:
Im fine with December being slow to switch over in the eastern US. It’s gonna happen eventually and I hope it’s for Jan and Feb which is Climo for a lot on the board.
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I agree. Obviously I’d prefer to be cold in December but it really is much harder to get snow in December than in January in the southeast. Last few years it’s been torch city in December followed by cold January and at least some of February. I’m not sure how this season will unfold but I’d rather it be warm now and much of December then in January.
 
Webb brung this up in a GC, but Indian Ocean forcing/convection is trending stronger in the nearer term, it’s implications is spoiling the medium term pattern (D5-10) 46CA3DBE-B1E0-4E66-8C25-D7F9167146D5.png
Also tons of -EAMT which retract/snap back the pacific jet, and favors a -PNA. Just lots of bad things favoring a bad pacific the next week in the background 228F1BF3-1DEE-4ADC-8356-670CC85C06F2.png
 
olhausen said:
I agree. Obviously I’d prefer to be cold in December but it really is much harder to get snow in December than in January in the southeast. Last few years it’s been torch city in December followed by cold January and at least some of February. I’m not sure how this season will unfold but I’d rather it be warm now and much of December then in January.
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Moving nicely along to Acceptance

good-satisfied.gif

?
 
Medium range is gross on the GEFS and GFS but a solid switch around day 10 until the end of the runs. Makes sense right now. 12/12-12/15 looks like a good timeframe to switch and pushes us into the back half of December.
 
iGRXY said:
Medium range is gross on the GEFS and GFS but a solid switch around day 10 until the end of the runs. Makes sense right now. 12/12-12/15 looks like a good timeframe to switch and pushes us into the back half of December.
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Yes I agree. But…what are the chances we are having this same conversation on the 15th about a switch beginning of January lol. Seems like it never ends.
 
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