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Pattern Dazzling December

AJ1013 said:
"Low" is obviously relative but the peak here today is 41* or something. For a kid born and raised in the tropics it's low. And since I work as a golf instructor it's irritating having to stare into the sun all day.
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Just curious. Do stores there sell coats and winter clothes ?
 
Snowlover87 said:
Just curious. Do stores there sell coats and winter clothes ?
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Yes. Mostly for travel, lots of people who live here go on ski trips or for business/recreation to cold places. And they do have a use here occasionally. Maybe a third of winter days require some type of pullover/hoodie in the morning and evening and a couple times a year when it drops to around 40F you might have to dig into the closet for something warmer. Back in 2010 we had a day that was ~40F with wind driven rain all afternoon. Cold enough for true winter attire. The following morning had a low of 33F, the coldest I've ever experienced here.
 
The pacific is just not it
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I just want 60's and sunny FFS. Is that too much to ask for? I'd even take 70's and sunny with a low in the 50's. So frustrating that it's constantly warmer than normal here, then I go to Tucson where average high is 65F in December and instead it's gonna be ------- freezing. I swear to god if it's cold and dry there I'm gonna lose it. If it has to be cold give me some snow.
 
The Mountains are obnoxious
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Loganelliott99 said:
Look. The eps has literally shown a definite pattern change for the last week. And the one warm run out of 20 he posts


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Yeah I still like Brad, but I’m just not sure I understand his whole teleconnections statement last week. I was talking to my next door neighbor the other day, who was a meteorologist for the Navy for over 40 years, about that and he was very puzzled. He said that using teleconnections really is the best way to put together long range forecast trends.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah I still like Brad, but I’m just not sure I understand his whole teleconnections statement last week. I was talking to my next door neighbor the other day, who was a meteorologist for the Navy for over 40 years, about that and he was very puzzled. He said that using teleconnections really is the best way to put together long range forecast trends.
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I didn't want to post at the time but my question to him would be; Is he talking about the behavior or the calculative algorithms to produce a forecast? Is he suggesting those need adjusting? They wouldn't need to be if this is simply the behavior (teleconnections) having changed over time
 
Few thoughts...

1. I'm happily staying patient at the moment. These models runs coming out right now are like playing the front 9 of the opening round of the Masters. I'd love for all the model runs to look great, and I mean that, but some model runs that take steps back aren't going to break us. Tiger Woods shot 40 on the front 9 of the Masters in 1997 (4 over par), and went on to win the tournament by a record 12 strokes. We just need to see slow and steady progress over the course of the next 2 weeks to get us in position to win on the back 9 on Sunday / i.e. to get us in position to have a shot at multiple winter storms. Snow on #9 at Augusta...

RBeBAD0.png


2. There are 2 components to the West-Based NAO. #1 is the block from Greenland and to the SW, and #2 is the low pressure underneath (to the south of) the block. #1 helps #2 form, but for us, #2 is the most important. Right now on the model runs, we aren't seeing low pressure underneath the block bomb out, slow down, and back the flow so that cold air filters to the Gulf, and the storm track drops south - we WERE seeing that with the model runs over the weekend. It could flip back. But in lieu of that, we have to turn our attention to the west to see if we can get properly formed ridging to go up to help out with cold air and storm track. I do think that help will arrive in time, but it would be nice to pair the 2 together (proper NAO with western ridging)

3. Lastly, recent runs of the Euro and GFS have been hitting the Strat PV pretty hard. Any pounding of the stratosphere that we can get helps with getting the -AO / -NAO regime to extend its stay, or to have renewed blocking occur after a relax period. A weakened PV in the lower stratosphere at 50mb shown here on the GFS days 7 to 15.

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griteater said:
Few thoughts...

1. I'm happily staying patient at the moment. These models runs coming out right now are like playing the front 9 of the opening round of the Masters. I'd love for all the model runs to look great, and I mean that, but some model runs that take steps back aren't going to break us. Tiger Woods shot 40 on the front 9 of the Masters in 1997 (4 over par), and went on to win the tournament by a record 12 strokes. We just need to see slow and steady progress over the course of the next 2 weeks to get us in position to win on the back 9 on Sunday / i.e. to get us in position to have a shot at multiple winter storms. Snow on #9 at Augusta...

RBeBAD0.png


2. There are 2 components to the West-Based NAO. #1 is the block from Greenland and to the SW, and #2 is the low pressure underneath (to the south of) the block. #1 helps #2 form, but for us, #2 is the most important. Right now on the model runs, we aren't seeing low pressure underneath the block bomb out, slow down, and back the flow so that cold air filters to the Gulf, and the storm track drops south - we WERE seeing that with the model runs over the weekend. It could flip back. But in lieu of that, we have to turn our attention to the west to see if we can get properly formed ridging to go up to help out with cold air and storm track. I do think that help will arrive in time, but it would be nice to pair the 2 together (proper NAO with western ridging)

3. Lastly, recent runs of the Euro and GFS have been hitting the Strat PV pretty hard. Any pounding of the stratosphere that we can get helps with getting the -AO / -NAO regime to extend its stay, or to have renewed blocking occur after a relax period. A weakened PV in the lower stratosphere at 50mb shown here on the GFS days 7 to 15.

Siptj5m.gif
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Thanks for the post. Was just thinking about you not posting yet today. Good stuff.


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CaryWx said:
I didn't want to post at the time but my question to him would be; Is he talking about the behavior or the calculative algorithms to produce a forecast? Is he suggesting those need adjusting? They wouldn't need to be if this is simply the behavior (teleconnections) having changed over time
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Yeah… I actually messaged Brad on messenger about that. He hasn’t responded, but my neighbor was telling me that even with climate change there hasn’t been any real change in how weather patterns respond to blocking. He even pointed out to me that just in the last 15 years.. very recent in climate records… every time blocking as strong as we have setting up in the location it’s in has lead to multiple winter storms in the southeast. He’s also eyeing that 18th-23rd timeframe for something
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah I still like Brad, but I’m just not sure I understand his whole teleconnections statement last week. I was talking to my next door neighbor the other day, who was a meteorologist for the Navy for over 40 years, about that and he was very puzzled. He said that using teleconnections really is the best way to put together long range forecast trends.
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I took it as he just doesn't believe there is enough cold in the Arctic anymore to have the same effect it used to. The evolution of dumping out west sliding east like 2010 is showing up in modeling from what I see. It's just not cold air.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 124967View attachment 124968
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That looks like a very good pattern. Ridging all up to the pole, Greenland blocking, Alaskan ridge, Aleutian low, no west coast trough, but still the real cold is trapped in the Northwest. Why doesn't it dislodge?

GEFS falls in line, I rejoice, then the EPS smacks me in the chin with another west coast trough. Not sure what the heck is going to happen or what to root for. Lol.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I took it as he just doesn't believe there is enough cold in the Arctic anymore to have the same effect it used to. The evolution of dumping out west sliding east like 2010 is showing up in modeling from what I see. It's just not cold air.
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This was his response to someone and that's why I think he even if the 500mb pattern is the same it just won't be as cold.Screenshot_20221206_200509_Twitter.jpg
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I took it as he just doesn't believe there is enough cold in the Arctic anymore to have the same effect it used to. The evolution of dumping out west sliding east like 2010 is showing up in modeling from what I see. It's just not cold air.
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I understand that, but I’ve look for studies about this and there really isn’t anything specific about it.
 
Chazwin said:
I understand that, but I’ve look for studies about this and there really isn’t anything specific about it.
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I always really liked this graphic below when looking at NAO and cross referencing some of my best storms/seasons on the east coast. 2010 was basically off the chart. Early 90's were awful. But yeah I would need to see some studies that these indices don't matter as much.

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Man this takes it’s sweet ole time getting here. Getting close to under 240. But I feel like we were saying this the last couple of days. Not lining everything getting pushed back. This looks like a more healthy push of cold air than the 18z run though. Not a fan of it coming from the west ugh
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The complete 180 the gfs just did is quite remarkable but almost predictable with how ensembles have looked. CMC is showing something similar but we may have to seriously start looking at the potential for some significant severe weather if this sort of thing holds. Just an amazing temperature gradient and strong southerly winds bringing up warm moist air. This along with plenty of shear on tap means a severe threat is certainly on the table.

Not only this but check out the change from one run to the current .. the +PNA just exploded and things are about to get very cold and backed up here soon. 99F6E4E1-C51C-4FC9-A320-917EFCD4069E.jpegAF13E59F-5800-4BAF-AA90-E06BCCC675E2.jpeg
 
Here’s an in depth look at the severe ingredients. Things can change but these big time winter polar fronts mean business’s in meteorology and are some of the biggest producers of severe weather due to the extreme temperature gradients they can produce. This polar front is something that continues to be produced on the models. Not only that but some low cape values plus high temps/dews and strong shear means some problems for someone in the south. And of course check out the extreme switch up behind the front.12E07DFA-508A-4AB8-B5CA-30D6DAEB1DF3.jpegA5563B63-AB40-4CFD-B2DE-7127565B3710.jpeg8422A685-1E55-4254-B8F8-34443C7D61ED.jpegE0F3B076-AC90-4007-ABA6-76F1E2533724.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Wouldn’t completely jump on and off board with every run (you’ll get a headache and disappointed too many times) :) but I’m optimistic this pattern produces some sort of cold in late December
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In my opinion it’s with this northern plains snowstorm that puts the pattern in motion. Obviously there is many other things that can happen to hurt our chances but I’m fairly confident with this.
 
I feel like this GEFS run may be better than 18z


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