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Pattern Dazzling December

Broken024 said:
Just hit a random sleet shower on the way to work. Winter's back on the menu.View attachment 124611
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Just coming in from taking the dogs for their morning walk and there is actually some light sleet here too. Definitely was not expecting that.

Edit: and now some snowflakes flying around too. WTH?
 
I know this won't be popular but honestly, I am not too encouraged by the recent trends. Looks awfully familiar to 2021. Not only that, but the mirage that always exist beyond about D10-11 that slowly fades as models move towards and into truncation is real.

Notice what happens as more and more of the TPV that was once modeled to slide southeast starts being modeled inside of truncation hours. This happens over and over and over again and I fall for it every time. Something about the TPV is just not modeled correctly at these lower model resolutions, which is why these same trends are showing up in every modeling suite at the same forecast time.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh180_trend (4).gif



Unless positive trends are occurring inside of model truncation, getting encouraged is a pretty risky bet. Without some TPV moving under the Greenland ridging, you don't have a functioning -NAO and we're basically waiting for another opportunity to reset the pattern.

I'm still hopeful that eventually we can push through this "model mirage" into something better, but with the MJO exerting only minor influence it's going to take something else to force this. It is encouraging that we have Greenland blocking consistently showing up, so maybe it's just a matter of time until we can get a series of undercutting storms, cross polar flow and a -EPO to help establish a cold regime.
 
BullCityWx said:
GEFS still has some interest in next Friday
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Despite the milquetoast 00z runs i still like the look, pacific vort leapfrogging over an omega block is how i received the most snow i've ever seen in my life (remarkably on my first night on air when i was a broadcast met, lol). I think that small changes (stronger NE vortex pushing the SW south, more digging ) in this case can still yield an event worth tracking. Then again, it's December 2nd, it's basically Week 1 in NFL terms, I'm not in midseason form yet, also likely this is a nothingburger event.
 
Hypsometric said:
I know this won't be popular but honestly, I am not too encouraged by the recent trends. Looks awfully familiar to 2021. Not only that, but the mirage that always exist beyond about D10-11 that slowly fades as models move towards and into truncation is real.

Notice what happens as more and more of the TPV that was once modeled to slide southeast starts being modeled inside of truncation hours. This happens over and over and over again and I fall for it every time. Something about the TPV is just not modeled correctly at these lower model resolutions, which is why these same trends are showing up in every modeling suite at the same forecast time.

View attachment 124609



Unless positive trends are occurring inside of model truncation, getting encouraged is a pretty risky bet. Without some TPV moving under the Greenland ridging, you don't have a functioning -NAO and we're basically waiting for another opportunity to reset the pattern.

I'm still hopeful that eventually we can push through this "model mirage" into something better, but with the MJO exerting only minor influence it's going to take something else to force this. It is encouraging that we have Greenland blocking consistently showing up, so maybe it's just a matter of time until we can get a series of undercutting storms, cross polar flow and a -EPO to help establish a cold regime.
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I don't think it's an unpopular opinion for most of us. It's ok to be cautiously optimistic because we have a true -NAO coming. But it's also important to realize that there are many things that can go wrong. Some of the modeling the last 24 hrs has shown some of those things. But like you said it's still more than 10 days out and model skill is very low and either outcome is just as likely at this point. I don't personally think it'll get that cold like 2010 did. But cold enough to get the job done is possible. But fighting the SER and not even coming close to getting anything wintry is still a possibility as well.
 
ILMRoss said:
Despite the milquetoast 00z runs i still like the look, pacific vort leapfrogging over an omega block is how i received the most snow i've ever seen in my life (remarkably on my first night on air when i was a broadcast met, lol). I think that small changes (stronger NE vortex pushing the SW south, more digging ) in this case can still yield an event worth tracking. Then again, it's December 2nd, it's basically Week 1 in NFL terms, I'm not in midseason form yet, also likely this is a nothingburger event.
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Mood flakes this time of year is a win, which I am sure you'll agree with.
 
Hypsometric said:
I know this won't be popular but honestly, I am not too encouraged by the recent trends. Looks awfully familiar to 2021. Not only that, but the mirage that always exist beyond about D10-11 that slowly fades as models move towards and into truncation is real.

Notice what happens as more and more of the TPV that was once modeled to slide southeast starts being modeled inside of truncation hours. This happens over and over and over again and I fall for it every time. Something about the TPV is just not modeled correctly at these lower model resolutions, which is why these same trends are showing up in every modeling suite at the same forecast time.

View attachment 124609



Unless positive trends are occurring inside of model truncation, getting encouraged is a pretty risky bet. Without some TPV moving under the Greenland ridging, you don't have a functioning -NAO and we're basically waiting for another opportunity to reset the pattern.

I'm still hopeful that eventually we can push through this "model mirage" into something better, but with the MJO exerting only minor influence it's going to take something else to force this. It is encouraging that we have Greenland blocking consistently showing up, so maybe it's just a matter of time until we can get a series of undercutting storms, cross polar flow and a -EPO to help establish a cold regime.
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Yeah sums it up, I agree. Without a tpv in the NE, the -nao really doesn't help us. Just have to wait for it to hopefully go there before the block goes away.
 
Model flipping, especially during a pattern change, especially beyond 8-10 days is just going to be a given. Things on our side is a true -NAO with strong confluence in the 50/50 area. MJO progression is favorable. That to me is the biggest key here and why these bad model runs aren't moving me right now. We may not get a true +PNA with a true double blocking bridge over the North Pole but a relaxed pacific and even just a neutral PNA I think has a better shot than all the cold air dumping out west like 2021. Now with that said, I still say that this first big block is just setting the stage for the real time frame which is the last 10-14 days of December. Blocks this strong usually are stubborn and just reintensify, generally the 2nd stage of a big block is when we score anyways as the initial cold and progression is favorable for the NE/MA which we want to happen first anyways. And finally, we will be getting deeper into above average climo and closing in on Peak Climo which is the first couple of weeks of January. We may not score at all, but there's A LOT of favorability on our side that says at least the back half of December and front half of January to get a winter storm or 2.
 
Stevo24 said:
The models have literally bounced back and forth. I wouldn’t call any of them a real trend.
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We were talking about next weekend time frame. Still looking for a change around December 20th


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iGRXY said:
Model flipping, especially during a pattern change, especially beyond 8-10 days is just going to be a given. Things on our side is a true -NAO with strong confluence in the 50/50 area. MJO progression is favorable. That to me is the biggest key here and why these bad model runs aren't moving me right now. We may not get a true +PNA with a true double blocking bridge over the North Pole but a relaxed pacific and even just a neutral PNA I think has a better shot than all the cold air dumping out west like 2021. Now with that said, I still say that this first big block is just setting the stage for the real time frame which is the last 10-14 days of December. Blocks this strong usually are stubborn and just reintensify, generally the 2nd stage of a big block is when we score anyways as the initial cold and progression is favorable for the NE/MA which we want to happen first anyways. And finally, we will be getting deeper into above average climo and closing in on Peak Climo which is the first couple of weeks of January. We may not score at all, but there's A LOT of favorability on our side that says at least the back half of December and front half of January to get a winter storm or 2.
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All great points. With the blocking that is developing, things are often a bit of a step down process. That’s why I’ve always been convinced that the potential for late next week and next weekend is a threat for the northeast. Again though I don’t think that’s a bad thing, because I would really like to see a good snowpack get in place up there as we approach what I think will be the time frame that we could see some potential… that time has always been from about the 15th on.
 
The fact that Chicago and Grand Rapids is having trouble with snow says it all. I used to live in Grand Rapids anything that fell in December was almost always snow.
 
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