AJ1013
Member
70F with clear skies here this morning.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Models look good but not holding my breath, need consistency till tomorrow night/Friday before I bite 
Still lots of disagreement with the members on where exactly the western ridge set ups in the long range. That said some of those members are probably 2013-2014 cold.
SnowNiner
Member
They looked decent for that time period. But later they drifted right back to a full western trough. Hate to see that. No 50/50 low off the Atlantic either, just ridging (weird tri-pole ridging the whole hemisphere). That's way out there and certainly could change, but I'd really like the ensembles to start pointing to the trough coming fully east after the 20th.
I haven’t had a chance to look in detail but seeing those negative temp anamolies in the SW tells me that there might be a cut off upper low… would love to see it start throwing pieces of energy east.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
They looked decent for that time period. But later they drifted right back to a full western trough. Hate to see that. No 50/50 low off the Atlantic either, just ridging (weird tri-pole ridging the whole hemisphere). That's way out there and certainly could change, but I'd really like the ensembles to start pointing to the trough coming fully east after the 20th.
While I agree with you. Would be nice to see trough in east later in the run. Looking at the 354 hour GEFS is nonsense.
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extremely large spreads, up to 55F spreads 
Do you ever post any maps under 300+ hours away?They looked decent for that time period. But later they drifted right back to a full western trough. Hate to see that. No 50/50 low off the Atlantic either, just ridging (weird tri-pole ridging the whole hemisphere). That's way out there and certainly could change, but I'd really like the ensembles to start pointing to the trough coming fully east after the 20th.
Kinda surprised one of the most well known Mets in the weather community has continued to post this 3-4 days in a row now. Not to say it’s not going to happen, cause I am really pulling for it to happen. But to quadruple down on it is wild. Hell, we can’t even figure out what happens past day 7
This isn’t a knock on Spann at all, actually is reassuring that it will happen.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Last 3 runs of the GFS for the big time system coming up. Finally the model is understanding how hard it is to plow itself into a block. Another thing is the confluence is trending much stronger. Certainly a ways out but we could easily trend this to an onset ice event for favored CAD areas in Northern NC and upwards. Another thing, the CMC has been showing a more suppressed system as well. GFS is caving to that idea.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Here is the CMC for reference, it’s definitely slightly overdone with how cold the sfc temps are. Still shows the potential for our first icing event.
The most important thing about this system to me is that’s it the tablesetter
It’s setting the table for a big ole slice of Western trough!
CPC is gonna be way to warm east of the apps. Wedges for dayz 
WxSouth
14m ·https://www.facebook.com/#
The weather is warm across the South today and next few days, from Texas across the heart of the south to the eastern Carolinas, but cold air damming in Virginia, western Carolinas continues to thwart the warm...but even there it will warm up next couple of days. Clouds and periods of rain dominate though, many more systems are slated over the next week.
So, the weather now is gloomy, rather boring across a big chunk of the region. Normal December weather, except this long cloudy stretch is a bit much to take
What is showing up though is, atleast in my estimation, going to be spectacular. All the signals continue to be there for a cascade of sequential Meteorological events that will thrust the central and eastern US into hard core Winter Weather over the next few weeks. A blocking ridge will build toward Alaska (this got us cold several times in October and November). A strong block around Greenland is developing as we speak and will maintain for several weeks--another cold signal for the Southeast. It's rare to get both simultaneously. I believe things are going to get very interesting down South in the next few weeks.
WxSouth
Consulting agency
smast16
Member
So, the only thing this massive -NAO did was pop a -PNA?
-EPO / +PNA is 100% better for cold than -NAO.
-EPO / +PNA is 100% better for cold than -NAO.
Ah yes. The notorious CAD tree snapper run with a low bombing in the Great Lakes. ?? ?
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I absolutely agree with you. However we would’ve had 3 massive storms in January if we would’ve had a -NAO. But it just shows you. Even with a +NAO we got snow three straight snow events because of a +PNA
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