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Pattern Dazzling December

griteater said:
06z GFS NAO Index

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Is this good? ?
 
2 things to note. Higher SLP dominating and bridged from the higher latitudes and a signal of some sort of low in the Atlantic/50-50 region. Those 2 are important aspects of the SE/MA in general. 233A44B2-F4B9-4A70-9DC9-1E58A00F6DFE.pngEFDDD6A0-C9C3-4007-8AE7-748F44113808.png
 
Still if there was a option to something like last January, Vs what’s being modeled, I’d chose last January anytime, solely +PNA driven stuff will always be the best way, even if it’s sheared ----. But what’s coming up is definitely interesting, kinda figured -NAO would enter the picture but not a strong/big event like this
 
that 50/50 low developing under our block is gonna be key into mid dec as it’s gonna be rooted with really cold air
 
Brent said:
Ha even here with an 8 inch average it took til February last year to get more than a light dusting... Then it all fell in one storm. I thought it was never going to snow for real honestly

I will say the one thing that has struck me about this month... last year didn't even have flakes til January. Also last December our coldest low was a pathetic 26. We've been way colder already
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Don’t let early season snows suck you in. I’ve had a few back to back November snows and one year got a half inch in mid November. I believe both years I ended up with less than 2 inches for the season. On the other hand just last winter I didn’t get a flake until early January and yet ended up with almost 20 inches of snow for the season. Obviously it could have went either way but I’ve learned that early small snows and cold don’t always mean a good winter is ahead.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
GEFS isn’t ideal. Stellar southeast ride.


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With the strength the models are showing for our -NAO I would expect them to continue to shrink the SER rendering it mute eventually. This is usually the trend that takes place with these sort of events. Models take a while to respond.
 
Would be interesting to research winters with a -4SD NAO event, I would guess the results would be pretty nice in most of those winters. I think keeping expectations in check for the next few weeks would save folks from disappointment. But the chances of a big ticket event is definitely heightened if we can get just a little cooperation from the pacific. 3rd and 4th weeks of December could be interesting, this -NAO should have some staying power.


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