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Pattern Dazzling December

Time to pull the trigger on the winter pattern analogs consisting of La Nina, ridge in North-Central Pacific, -PNA, and -NAO.

Each of the 6 winters recorded slightly below normal temperatures at Charlotte (when compared to the specific winter's 30 year avg).


First 2 images are 500mb and Temperature composites for all years. Final images are snowfall % of mean for each individual winter


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Stevo24 said:
just out of curiosity, is what we are seeing on the models coming up better or worse or the same as this time last year?
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In terms of last December ? 20x better in overall pattern .. now the pattern we got in January with multiple weeks of snow chances came with a stout +PNA we haven’t got much to say we see that but all we need with this type of pattern is just a little nudge of something positive in the pacific to be able to cash in
 
Itryatgolf said:
Ollie, are we going to want to see a +EAMT event if we have a chance at switching the pna less negative? Last December was same thing but more pronounced -pna/Aleutian ridge
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griteater wrote up a nice post about this that should answer your question.
griteater said:
As for the Pacific side pattern, it's been a bit odd so far this late fall with how the MJO has been more active and moving seemingly faster than I would expect. Based on that, it's a bit difficult to assign how much effect the MJO is having on the pattern. My guess here is that we will continue to see a La Nina-like ridge in the Central-North Pacific, extending into Alaska until there is something significant that comes along to disturb that base state. Probably the thing to look for to do that would be a big episode of Positive East Asian Mtn Torque. At the moment, it doesn't look like one is on the radar for the foreseeable future....mid-Dec may be the next timeframe for something like that to occur, with effects occurring in the weeks after of ridging moving closer to the west coast (just a guess based on the cyclical nature of those events - see red line in image below). Good news is that we aren't currently seeing low pressure setup shop over Alaska, and Canada is getting supplied with cold air.
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Itryatgolf said:
Ollie, are we going to want to see a +EAMT event if we have a chance at switching the pna less negative? Last December was same thing but more pronounced -pna/

I read it but was curious if you attest to his statement.
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The Nina base state largely supports a -PNA, so I agree it would take a +EAMT to produce a +PNA. I'm not that well informed on EAMT and don't have any different take other than what Griteater wrote. Last December was a bit different and was closer to this November. We had very little blocking in addition to a -PNA while the +SCAND phase was just getting started.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The Nina base state largely supports a -PNA, so I agree it would take a +EAMT to produce a +PNA. I'm not that well informed on EAMT and don't have any different take other than what Griteater wrote. Last December was a bit different and was closer to this November. We had very little blocking in addition to a -PNA while the +SCAND phase was just getting started.
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Hopefully we do it all over again but earlier transition to cold compared to last year
 
griteater said:
Time to pull the trigger on the winter pattern analogs consisting of La Nina, ridge in North-Central Pacific, -PNA, and -NAO.

Each of the 6 winters recorded slightly below normal temperatures at Charlotte (when compared to the specific winter's 30 year avg).


First 2 images are 500mb and Temperature composites for all years. Final images are snowfall % of mean for each individual winter


vYNTEY4.png


oiSWfIb.png


SjNrcG3.gif


OSgBjzL.gif


tWbjstX.gif


ZPVZQuq.gif


ACB8O00.gif


F8lBD1t.gif
Click to expand...
I would take caution in comparing to many decades ago. The higher latitudes have been very warm lately. I still think the Mountain's are locked for some snow this year, outside of that area, it's going to be threading the needle for NC at least.

Fik5waoXwAkLeMb
 
severestorm said:
I would take caution in comparing to many decades ago. The higher latitudes have been very warm lately. I still think the Mountain's are locked for some snow this year, outside of that area, it's going to be threading the needle for NC at least.

Fik5waoXwAkLeMb
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Charlotte has seen at least a trace of snow every single winter. It will most likely snow outside of the mountains.


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Loganelliott99 said:
Charlotte has seen at least a trace of snow every single winter. It will most likely snow outside of the mountains.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Again "threading the needle". I wouldn't classify a trace as a winter storm. Maybe a winter weather advisory. But well see...It just takes 1 storm to make annual average.
 
Arcc said:
Indices can call this whatever they want, but I’ll take this -PNA all winter long. Maybe a little more westward.

View attachment 124190
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Absolutely!!! This is what I was talking about the other day with the discussion about the PNA and the talk that a -PNA completely kills off winter weather chances in the southeast. The -NAO with strong blocking can work especially when there is legitimate cold air masses building up in Canada like what we’re seeing now.
 
Chazwin said:
Absolutely!!! This is what I was talking about the other day with the discussion about the PNA and the talk that a -PNA completely kills off winter weather chances in the southeast. The -NAO with strong blocking can work especially when there is legitimate cold air masses building up in Canada like what we’re seeing now.
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I’ll roll the nice with a 588+dm ridge in California all winter long. Orientation matters, but that is life in the south.
 
Arcc said:
I’ll roll the nice with a 588+dm ridge in California all winter long. Orientation matters, but that is life in the south.
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The other good thing about that look is that it’s not a pattern that crushes every short wave. If something like that developed, I think we could get a good old southern slider out of it.
 
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