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Pattern Dazzling December

Haven’t
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seen it posted yet. But FWIW the 12z gfs had this on December 13th.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Stevo24 said:
But for real why do you only post when it’s a warm run lol
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I think he wants it to be cold like the rest of us. He just doesn't think it's coming. I was like that, still am to a certain extent. Been burned way too many times and warmth usually wins. I deal with it now by paying no attention to op models beyond 5 to 7 days and ensembles beyond 10 days. I do think this change has legs with it getting to the 10 day mark on ensembles. Now snow? I wouldn't bet on it in the upstate. Climo is not kind to us in Dec. But IF this block verifies it will increase our chances higher than normal.
 
I’m going out of town Mid-December so I’m sure there will be a record breaking cold snap for the southeast while I’m gone. You’re welcome everybody!
 
Stevo24 said:
What’s the point of even getting excited for a good pattern if it’s still not good enough? I guess just to be a little colder than normal for the holidays? Lol
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If you would pay attention, many have stated that any legit potential would be at or past mid month, as ensembles have consistently showed improvement around mid month, increased snowcover to our north, and storms typically don’t happen to start out a pattern but instead mid-end of one, especially a NAO, right now we’re looking for a pattern change in general, not a true storm, that look I posted interested me enough to post it. but it’s not falling in a favorable transitional pattern for the SE.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Isn’t the gfs getting an upgrade soon but it’s actually suppose to be a downgrade cause it’s been preforming worse than the current gfs (which is still bad)??
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Yes I posted on it the other day but the upgrade has been doing worse than the current. So it's gonna suck worse
 
Stevo24 said:
What’s the point of even getting excited for a good pattern if it’s still not good enough? I guess just to be a little colder than normal for the holidays? Lol
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I assume most follow on here as a hobby because they are hoping to see a good pattern setup that is capable of producing a big winter storm and/or good cold period. No different than following a football team because you are hoping the team is going to win a game or win the Super Bowl. No different than cooking a steak on the grill because you are hoping it tastes good when finished. No different than fighting cancer, because you are hopeful you can beat it. Hope is kind of the essence of living, right?

Turning the attention to the little issue on the Pacific side, it looks like the GFS and Euro are handling the features in the region differently at Days 8 to 13.

E Asia Mtn Torque has been quite negative of late, but it looks like will we get a splash of positive torque via high pressure that is descending thru China at the moment that will extend the Pac jet a bit.

My rule of thumb with the trajectory of Pac jet extensions is like this...if there is pre-existing low pressure / troughing in AK when the jet extends, the jet will tend to climb poleward overtop the flat Aleutian ridge, with low pressure coming off E Asia continuing to flow into AK (this is what is seen on the GFS). If there is pre-existing high pressure / ridging in AK when the jet extends, the jet will tend to work more west to east (underneath the Aleutian ridge), with low pressure coming off E Asia amplifying and pumping additional ridging out ahead of it and into AK (this is what is seen on the Euro).

On the loops below, prior to low pressure coming off E Asia, you can see different handling with the low over Siberia. The GFS is sending a piece of that low into AK, while the Euro is keeping that low bottled up in Siberia. This difference is the foundation for the pre-existing condition over AK as the jet extends and low pressure rolls off E Asia. The GFS has the losing formula. The Euro has the winning formula. I am using the Euro Control run below - it is similar to the Euro solution, but I'm using it because it runs out past Day 10

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