This EPS run is shaping up to be pretty good
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Euro doing the best right now being able to see this mute effect going on with our SER
What a beastly -NAO 
288 hour ENSEMBLE MEAN … that thing is going to be the biggest driver in northern hemisphere weather for a while good lord .. also notice how it’s completely muted the SER .. expect that trend to continue on other models
The snow mean is pretty bad though. I would use that as a better metric of how viable our pattern is. I've been burned too many times by just judging the H5 and hoping the snow mean catches up. I would need to see a change before I get sucked in. However, If you're hoping for below-average temperatures, this is a good look.
I wouldn’t even worry about snow mean right now. This block is more of a weather impacted once it becomes heavily established. We still have to wait for the downstream effects to be felt. I would expect December 10-20 is when we could start looking for fun. Right now I just wanna see how big and bad we can get that -NAO in the meantime
This would have opportunity
After last year I really don’t care for the snow mean that far out, when the signal of that tall PNA ridge was showing up last jan, snow means were bad before storms popped up on modeling inside 240 hours, imo snow mean is overrated, I remember last winter many freaked out because it sucked only for storms to pop up. It’s all about pattern recognition right now.
Brent
Member
That isn't snow in Texas anyway... ? They can have the ice believe me
Actually I think this pattern coming is ripe for an ice storm here. We'll see. I hope I'm wrong
On the flip side that, how many times have we seen great snow means that turned into nothing. I agree that the focus at this point is clearly pattern recognition
griteater
Member
Euro Control Run, Dec 7 - Dec 12 average (Day 10-15)
severestorm
Member
Would be ideal if the trough would be much further West. Hopefully it happens this winter for some snow!Euro Control Run, Dec 7 - Dec 12 average (Day 10-15)
I see a lot of 2010 comparisons, but this looks extremely similar to March 2018. That 50/50 low is ideal imo could be a table setter since it sets up confluence > suppression.Euro Control Run, Dec 7 - Dec 12 average (Day 10-15)
griteater
Member
Last 3 runs of Euro Ensemble Mean for Dec 6-11 (5 day avg). Steady with slight improvement
griteater
Member
Interestingly, with the troposphere to stratosphere height structure, this one is more similar to Dec 2010 with respect to its origin coming from bottom up processes from troposphere to stratosphere as opposed to the traditional sudden stratospheric warming (top down warming from stratosphere to troposphere). I'm hopeful that the bottom up type process with this one will make its outcome a bit more predictable and reliable.
Here is what 2017-2018 looked like (top down from Feb-Mar 2018:
Here is what 2010-2011 looked like (bottom up from Nov-Jan):
Here is what we look like so far in Fall 2022:
That’s a fair example, but still better than this run, even if one or two members skew the mean I’m happy. But there’s really nothing. I got burned back in Jan 2021 with a nice H5 pattern, but terrible snow mean. I would be interested to run statistics on the favorability of the EPS snow mean and the favorability of long-term snowfall.
whatalife
Moderator
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LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Ive never thought about it this way
