• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

NickyBGuarantee said:
With the strength the models are showing for our -NAO I would expect them to continue to shrink the SER rendering it mute eventually. This is usually the trend that takes place with these sort of events. Models take a while to respond.
Click to expand...
1669577784844.png
Euro doing the best right now being able to see this mute effect going on with our SER
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What a beastly -NAO View attachment 124173
Click to expand...
288 hour ENSEMBLE MEAN … that thing is going to be the biggest driver in northern hemisphere weather for a while good lord .. also notice how it’s completely muted the SER .. expect that trend to continue on other models
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What a beastly -NAO View attachment 124173
Click to expand...
The snow mean is pretty bad though. I would use that as a better metric of how viable our pattern is. I've been burned too many times by just judging the H5 and hoping the snow mean catches up. I would need to see a change before I get sucked in. However, If you're hoping for below-average temperatures, this is a good look.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-0846400.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
The snow mean is pretty bad though. I would use that as a better metric of how viable our pattern is. I've been burned too many times by just judging the H5 and hoping the snow mean catches up. I would need to see a change before I get sucked in. However, If you're hoping for below-average temperatures, this is a good look.
View attachment 124175
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t even worry about snow mean right now. This block is more of a weather impacted once it becomes heavily established. We still have to wait for the downstream effects to be felt. I would expect December 10-20 is when we could start looking for fun. Right now I just wanna see how big and bad we can get that -NAO in the meantime
 
Ollie Williams said:
The snow mean is pretty bad though. I would use that as a better metric of how viable our pattern is. I've been burned too many times by just judging the H5 and hoping the snow mean catches up. I would need to see a change before I get sucked in. However, If you're hoping for below-average temperatures, this is a good look.
View attachment 124175
Click to expand...
After last year I really don’t care for the snow mean that far out, when the signal of that tall PNA ridge was showing up last jan, snow means were bad before storms popped up on modeling inside 240 hours, imo snow mean is overrated, I remember last winter many freaked out because it sucked only for storms to pop up. It’s all about pattern recognition right now.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
After last year I really don’t care for the snow mean that far out, when the signal of that tall PNA ridge was showing up last jan, snow means were bad before storms popped up on modeling inside 240 hours, imo snow mean is overrated, I remember last winter many freaked out because it sucked only for storms to pop up. It’s all about pattern recognition right now.
Click to expand...
On the flip side that, how many times have we seen great snow means that turned into nothing. I agree that the focus at this point is clearly pattern recognition
 
Euro Control Run, Dec 7 - Dec 12 average (Day 10-15)

U0XjVrJ.png

DdjgqkM.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I see a lot of 2010 comparisons, but this looks extremely similar to March 2018. That 50/50 low is ideal imo could be a table setter since it sets up confluence > suppression. View attachment 124176
Click to expand...

Interestingly, with the troposphere to stratosphere height structure, this one is more similar to Dec 2010 with respect to its origin coming from bottom up processes from troposphere to stratosphere as opposed to the traditional sudden stratospheric warming (top down warming from stratosphere to troposphere). I'm hopeful that the bottom up type process with this one will make its outcome a bit more predictable and reliable.

Here is what 2017-2018 looked like (top down from Feb-Mar 2018:
CW8vY0T.png


Here is what 2010-2011 looked like (bottom up from Nov-Jan):
WdjjdYo.png


Here is what we look like so far in Fall 2022:
3T2j42x.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
For example last January. Overrated.
View attachment 102261
Click to expand...
That’s a fair example, but still better than this run, even if one or two members skew the mean I’m happy. But there’s really nothing. I got burned back in Jan 2021 with a nice H5 pattern, but terrible snow mean. I would be interested to run statistics on the favorability of the EPS snow mean and the favorability of long-term snowfall.
20DB50F0-0901-4F6F-A88D-10ADEB6FC323.jpeg
16836FB4-8459-4E63-8AC6-ACA164E09622.png
 
just out of curiosity, is what we are seeing on the models coming up better or worse or the same as this time last year?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top