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Pattern Dazzling December

Really strong possibility my hydrangeas start leafing out again


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It looks like “maybe” the cold air is getting ready to spill down on hour 384 on the Euro. Time will tell.
 

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Stevo24 said:
It looks like “maybe” the cold air is getting ready to spill down on hour 384 on the Euro. Time will tell.
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That's the 18z GFS. And the cold isn't about to spill into the US. It will stay bottled up in Canada, given the upper air pattern.

If you go to Tropical Tidbits and look at the 500mb chart of the northern hemisphere and run the animation, you'll see it's not coming in. That said, the model's skill at that range is quite poor.
 
Stevo24 said:
I meant the GFS I had the Euro on my mind. And if that isn’t coming down into the US, then when do you think it’s going too?
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Probably late month.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I like how this is being completely overlooked. EPS has mean highs on the first day of dec in the mid 40s View attachment 124121View attachment 124122
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While the GEFS says this:
gfs-ens_T2m_us_25.png
 
Rain Cold said:
It could. But the good news is, so far at least, we haven't seen a lot of evidence for a sustained torch or icebox through the fall. It's not a stretch this year to favor more frequent bouts of blocking, which should help us get cooler at times.
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I believe it's time for another Xmas storm in Ga. Please make it so as you are quite deft at it.
 
Tarheel1 said:
You need to move.
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Ha even here with an 8 inch average it took til February last year to get more than a light dusting... Then it all fell in one storm. I thought it was never going to snow for real honestly

I will say the one thing that has struck me about this month... last year didn't even have flakes til January. Also last December our coldest low was a pathetic 26. We've been way colder already
 
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MJO people. That’s what you need on your side. You get a favorable tropical forcing and the odds of a favorable down stream blocking goes through the roof. Even just a COD and neutral state produces. We will get a +PNA at some point, but it’s just a matter of lining it up with a -NAO and keep getting pulses in the southern jet stream going. Right now I think we stay on the 10-14 day swing of cold to warmth and back to cold. That means likely the last 10-15 days of December we switch back to cold. Personally I want that to happen further in December as we get to peak Climo.
 
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