EPS snowfall for Columbia SC?
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Hypsometric
Member
I’ll play along. Can you do Anderson SC?
What’s coooler than cool? Ice cold.
RAH vague at this point, which is understandable:
"Friday onward: Model solutions begin to diverge Fri and Sat. The
upper low will continue its slow east-northeastward migration over
the upper Great Lakes Fri and Sat, where it will either sit through
the weekend, or it will lift northward and get absorbed into a
southward sinking low over central Canada. Forecast uncertainty
increases through the weekend, thus confidence is low. Will keep the
weather largely dry through the weekend, however the 12Z GFS does
show some precipitation over the region Sun. Temperatures should
gradually decrease from near average to below average Fri to Sun."
"Friday onward: Model solutions begin to diverge Fri and Sat. The
upper low will continue its slow east-northeastward migration over
the upper Great Lakes Fri and Sat, where it will either sit through
the weekend, or it will lift northward and get absorbed into a
southward sinking low over central Canada. Forecast uncertainty
increases through the weekend, thus confidence is low. Will keep the
weather largely dry through the weekend, however the 12Z GFS does
show some precipitation over the region Sun. Temperatures should
gradually decrease from near average to below average Fri to Sun."
Icon looks much much better 
That's such a subtle difference in the grand scheme, it makes my stomach hurt
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18z NAM temps for mid-afternoon on Wednesday. Again, no wintery precip but this is still winter weather folks.
I feel we are starting to play with the theoretical limits on how good a pattern can be on some of these runs.
This is that dreaded reference to the 'lakes low' we don't want to see folks.
Ron Burgundy
Member
FFC has gone from “not buying the pattern change” in this morning’s AFD to “kinda sorta maybe buying the pattern change a little” in the afternoon AFD. That’s about all you’ll ever get from them at this range (which I get):
Finally, we`ll be keeping an eye on next weekend where the latest
run of the GFS is now resolving a rain/snow system surging
through the Southeast. It is still very early in the forecast for
resolving wintry details and it still remains an outlier when
compared to other models which have the system pushing through a
couple days later, and further south, resolving all rain. However,
this system could be the first shot for some wintry precip for
the forecast area since last winter but chances for now are low.
Thiem
Finally, we`ll be keeping an eye on next weekend where the latest
run of the GFS is now resolving a rain/snow system surging
through the Southeast. It is still very early in the forecast for
resolving wintry details and it still remains an outlier when
compared to other models which have the system pushing through a
couple days later, and further south, resolving all rain. However,
this system could be the first shot for some wintry precip for
the forecast area since last winter but chances for now are low.
Thiem
I thought there were exceptions to that rule, whereas that low could be cut off and help funnel cold air southeastward.
I'll leave it to the experts but thinking only if it reacts like the ICON 18z depicts. Typically a parked LP over the GL is not good for us.
It also gives you an idea of how good the CAD could be when we end up with better snowpack in the northeast
More western driving this GFS run so far 
Maybe not for y’all, but it’s great for us in the Deep South.
I remember a couple years back, this came up and Webb came in with some info that the Lakes low hasn’t really made a considerable difference in past set ups
Not even close! This is an actual system from the plains, the GLL is a different entity! Good try tho!
it’s more of a deep vortex over the Great Lakes, it’s a good thing in this instance since it’s broad and suppressing the height field keeping storm tracks south, only problem is cold can be a issue with it sometimes but it’s a setup that can produce