• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

Lol NC boys and girls have a chance to be below normal this month because of all this CAD. We’re sitting at 1 degree above normal right now. This big cold attack is certainly set to tip the scales a bit colder than average I would think.
View attachment 127447
Who cares if there is no wintry precip temps mean nothing. It was obvious weeks ago that cold was coming and even said would be below normal most likely by end of month. If no wintry precip then just a waste.
 
CMCE more active then last run, looks like a little more coastal signal View attachment 127449
Worth noting the airmass is so cold, even discounting the cold bias on the CMCE, wintry precip could be pretty far south. Like gulf coast south, if we do indeed get something to go our way 4A33CB62-7E72-4CC9-A430-03017D240F21.png
 
It’s still pretty weak, but best run since 00z 2 days ago. it’s better than nothing. If something is gonna produce, it’s gonna be this. Having Hope with a system that has cold air in place is better then having hope in a system that could easily go bad due to bad temps, bad H5, etcFF6F0305-1018-4BF0-AD2A-1F8A756AFBE0.png
 
Worth noting the airmass is so cold, even discounting the cold bias on the CMCE, wintry precip could be pretty far south. Like gulf coast south, if we do indeed get something to go our way View attachment 127450
With this type of cold in place, we really don’t need a strong wave to get a solid, widespread overrunning event going, and that’s a type of event that most models won’t pick up well on until 4 or 5 days out
 
With this type of cold in place, we really don’t need a strong wave to get a solid, widespread overrunning event going, and that’s a type of event that most models won’t pick up well on until 4 or 5 days out
Yep won’t be one of those we track 200+ hrs out with clown maps, we will just see the pieces there and hope things trend better as we get within a few days.
 
Yep won’t be one of those we track 200+ hrs out with clown maps, we will just see the pieces there and hope things trend better as we get within a few days.
and if models do start picking up on something like that, you can always expect precip to much more expansive to the north than what is shown
 
With this type of cold in place, we really don’t need a strong wave to get a solid, widespread overrunning event going, and that’s a type of event that most models won’t pick up well on until 4 or 5 days out
Honestly looking at both GFS and CMC as well as the GEFS; I wouldn’t be surprised if that is where we trend. Even a light overrunning event would bring great joy or annoyance. (1/28/14)
 
We have 2 options. Either speed up the vortex into eastern/SE Canada, and slow the southern stream wave, so you can dig the SS/pacific wave effectively and get some overrunning. or the more iffier way, get the TPV due north of the GLs, flex the WAR, get a southern stream wave to align with a extension/piece of energy from the TPV and phase something up. I like the 1st option better. in between sucks
 
Lol NC boys and girls have a chance to be below normal this month because of all this CAD. We’re sitting at 1 degree above normal right now. This big cold attack is certainly set to tip the scales a bit colder than average I would think.
View attachment 127447

To your point, KATL probably finishes at +1-3 and the Gulf states west stand no chance of being below normal. 10-12F above average halfway through December is ridiculous and insurmountable.
 
We have 2 options. Either speed up the vortex into eastern/SE Canada, and slow the southern stream wave, so you can dig the SS/pacific wave effectively and get some overrunning. or the more iffier way, get the TPV due north of the GLs, flex the WAR, get a southern stream wave to align with a extension/piece of energy from the TPV and phase something up. I like the 1st option better. in between sucks
The biggest problem with option 2 is that if the WAR flexes you have a better chance of pushing a warm nose into the cold air mass and you see a what would be a nice little snow event turn into a sleet fest or ice storm. Hopefully we can trend to something more like February 2010 and get nice widespread snowfall across the south
 
I’ve just got a feeling we are going to trend to some type of overrunning event within the next 2-3 days. Those types of storms generally don’t even begin to start showing up until you’re in the medium range and honestly the short range. As with the first storm you’re going to see some type of NW trend , but it won’t be as pronounce with the type of cold coming out of Canada. What I’m interested in is with -NAO’s we typically get some type of 50/50 low form. I expect that to happen but it depends on how strong it is. And again, if we do trend to overrunning you can expect a much better NW expansion of precip and FGEN front end banding.
 
Globals struggle to bring moisture farther north while the NAMs have stronger warm air advection and FGEN and get stuff going further north. Probably excessive but the chance of a floodlight flake event is there
We need the MMFS more than ever! .. if after all the Ls we’ve taken we get a quick thump on this initial wave that turns into a 34 degree rain… you know what I’ll just take it lmao
 
The short range guidance and even globals do hint at a period of time where if precip is falling you can crash the column enough in central NC where FGEN forcing can create a thump of sorts. I’m not getting my hopes up but if we follow trends of past in terms of precip being more expansive north and west of the low. Plus usually there is more precip with FGEN forcing than models usually pick up. Could be grasping at straws but if we only have straws to grasp might as well look wherever we can. 1671397816179.gif1671397757468.gif
 
8371E0DA-B9E4-48C8-8726-185AD9541F14.png
In terms of the big system coming please root for me to perhaps score on some CAD onset snow.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WSW
The short range guidance and even globals do hint at a period of time where if precip is falling you can crash the column enough in central NC where FGEN forcing can create a thump of sorts. I’m not getting my hopes up but if we follow trends of past in terms of precip being more expansive north and west of the low. Plus usually there is more precip with FGEN forcing than models usually pick up. Could be grasping at straws but if we only have straws to grasp might as well look wherever we can. View attachment 127476View attachment 127475
If there is a legitimate chance of this happening, I would expect to start showing on the HRRR as it first comes into range. The model does great FGEN forcing
 
Tuesday storm needs its own thread. It's legit. Really all we need is a little stronger forcing and expansive precip shield to the north, and these weak gulf lows usually have that. I'm all in
 
Back
Top