JLL1973
Member
Looks like the gfs has caved to the euro on snowfall here in the midsouth. No surprise there. Actually areas north of I40 still looks good
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Looking at the 0z CMC ensemble, looks like a few members with a gulf/SE coastal wave around the 27th or day 9
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Looks like more than a few members! Good to see.Looking at the 0z CMC ensemble, looks like a few members with a gulf/SE coastal wave around the 27th or day 9
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This sucks though. Basically close to zero support on the GFS ensemble
Storm5
Member
We will how the trends go today
NEGaweather
Member
There’s energy in the gulf. Hopefully not suppressed
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Ummm hey stranger, look what I found
Snownut
Member
What's it gonna take to get upstate involved this weekend?
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rburrel2
Member
12z NAM is very/very close to showing an advisory snow to freezing rain/sleet threat for Northeast Ga and upstate SC on Tuesday. Just need a 20-30 mile tick north with the precip shield
rburrel2
Member
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This shouldn’t be surprising but it looks like zero ensemble support for storm #2.
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As bad of a snow graph as you can ever see this time of year
Hm
rburrel2
Member
3km NAM is showing potential too. High is in perfect position for CAD.. if dew points verify a little lower than progged and we get enough precip this could turn in to a decent event. Especially for the Southern escarpment with some elevation(1500-2000ft). 
FYI, we have a thread for the time period and any potential
rburrel2
Member
Just looking for the key the differences from the last NAM run and it appears it's a decent shift north with the precip shield Tuesday afternoon that's allowing places in to wetbulb below freezing.
Another similar sized shift north with the precip and we'd be cooking with grease. The globals trended north with the precip shield overnight as well, they just a little too warm at the surface for freezing rain,(but with established CAD setup they may be too warm).
Another similar sized shift north with the precip and we'd be cooking with grease. The globals trended north with the precip shield overnight as well, they just a little too warm at the surface for freezing rain,(but with established CAD setup they may be too warm).
Might have to pull the Tuesday stuff into a different thread if anything supports it this morning
Spc mentioning a low severe threat right now late this week for eastern areas (most likely NC/SC/GA)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks more likely that we're gonna see some thunderstorms & severe weather ahead of the front than snow/ice behind it on Thu-Fri.
packfan98
Moderator
What are your thoughts about getting the 2nd system to materialize?
Models are struggling with the energy left over, whether it gets left in western Canada, or merged into the pacific trough, we need a tall western ridge for a digging and successful system. Until models resolve that feature with it either it getting stuck in W can, or retrograding back into the Aleutian low, then it’s a 50/50 shot and a game atp
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Need to see the same trends we've had w/ Thu-Fri over the next few days. Slower, more amplified wave digging southward sooner over the Rockies instead of the Great Plains. It wouldn't also hurt if the vortex in front of it got out of the way just a tick sooner. We're still at least 7-8 days out so lot of time for things to change for the better (or worse).
Our shortwave slows down, but so does the big vortex. Can’t win.
Then again, it may be close for coastal NC on this run.
This is honestly a positive trend, if we slow down anymore and separate the vortex/SW anymore we’re gonna go from a ---- tilted wave to a wave that could easily amplify into a bowling ball 
Definitely gains a lot more separation in the latest frames than earlier. Would be a heck of a thing to keep that trend going.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's the way the first storm goes that's really messing up how our overall chances are. It seriously would be best if this first system didn't cut as much because what happens is it slows down and gets in the way of the next wave, keeping it way too positive coming in to ever do anything. Had it swept in and kept cold vs lagged the cold behind it and cut we'd be having better chances. Unfortunately neither are going to be big for anyone outside of western areas of the south like Oklahoma. Best that this will do is maybe some mountain snow showers and light flurries outside is what I'd bet most on.
still think there's a lot of room for amplification seeing that the s/w is still pretty positively tilted- i thought the ridge out west looked much better
trying to will the second storm into existence to prove bull city wrong
theoretically this second system would be so much easier to cash out on if we can get that ridge pointed straight up and taller.. but it’s just kind of leaning towards the NE not ideal at all. Meh. Hopefully we can keep the taller trend going.
Massive change here.
CMC wants to give us a little clipper action ??
Oh look, what may end up saving us….
CMC is a late bloomer with light trough related snow for many areas (temps are in the 20s verbatim so ratios would be great, even with light snow)
The ensembles solutions seem to show that with improvements and a handful of runs that may depict that scenario
i will say that bull city and his ilk (2nd storm naysayers) do have general inertia on their side, it did legitimately look like a few days ago there was a strong ensemble signal for some sort of slider. you can now clearly see- the trend is against us. don't know if there's on specific culprit other than some more extreme solutions relaxed in future runs and- it's just hard to get snow that far south lol. real shame. 
Better trend here.
SnowwxAtl
Member
I will take this is the EURO come around!
severestorm
Member
Not even entertaining it until the Euro gets on board. GFS has been horrible.
Lol NC boys and girls have a chance to be below normal this month because of all this CAD. We’re sitting at 1 degree above normal right now. This big cold attack is certainly set to tip the scales a bit colder than average I would think.
