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Pattern Dazzling December

I’ll go as far as saying there may be a flake or two that flys around Memphis area with the system moving through Monday.
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rburrel2 said:
Tuesday storm needs its own thread. It's legit. Really all we need is a little stronger forcing and expansive precip shield to the north, and these weak gulf lows usually have that. I'm all in
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Definitely not at this point. We got one round of NAM runs. NAM is known to head fake in the long range. We need consecutive runs and additional support from other models.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Definitely not at this point. We got one round of NAM runs. NAM is known to head fake in the long range. We need consecutive runs and additional support from other models.
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Gfs, euro, icon, etc all have precip making in to upstate, SC on Tuesday. NAM might be the only model showing a North Carolina hit right now but I don’t think this is a NC only board right?
 
rburrel2 said:
Gfs, euro, icon, etc all have precip making in to upstate, SC on Tuesday. NAM might be the only model showing a North Carolina hit right now but I don’t think this is a NC only board right?
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Correct but more than likely you will be too warm in SC for anything more than maybe a quick flake before 850s warm above freezing. Further into NC would have a better chance at a longer initial winter precip time IF precip actually made it up there.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Correct but more than likely you will be too warm in SC for anything more than maybe a quick flake before 850s warm above freezing. Further into NC would have a better chance at a longer initial winter precip time IF precip actually made it up there.
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GFS not seeing this though right? Just the ICON?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Correct but more than likely you will be too warm in SC for anything more than maybe a quick flake before 850s warm above freezing. Further into NC would have a better chance at a longer initial winter precip time IF precip actually made it up there.
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I will say that we should watch to see how good the FGEN forcing looks to be. If it’s strong enough it could very easily crash 850s even in a very marginal set up. Right now there seems to be some decent looks on the soundings for northern SC
 
Really need everything to trend further south so I can be in the game,

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Yep, it's on it's way to cutting off in future NAM frames (not far even)
 
I am not expecting any snow out of this pattern. I am expecting very cold temperatures and a wild and crazy meteorology day Friday. I am probably going to see really cold temperatures and a really cool meteorology day on Friday. My expectations will be met and I will be happy. When I don’t expect snow to fall and none ends up falling my feeling will be neutral to that fact and i will have a net positive feeling about everything. This is protecting my mental health.
 
The 00z NAM is still “stirring the pot” over portions of NC Tuesday night. It’s our only hope east of the mountains right now.
 

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Meteorologist1999 said:
Did anyone seen the 18z Navgem headed to glory at the end of run.
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Low pressure coming up from us Thursday would have to end up being the main low taking over .. therefor we need the primary low to shift 900 miles east of what general consensus among models is. Also meaning .. this probably is not happening lol
 
As of today Greensboro is -.03 BN for the month. Its a given we will average Below Normal on temps for the month of December, especially with Much Below Normal temps forecasted from here on out.
This will be one the coldest Decembers here in over a decade when all is said and done.
 
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