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Wintry Dec 21-22 street light 18z nam fantasy probably not happening but starting the thread anyway storm
- Thread starter SD
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Probably will be the thread ever. ???
The most whacked up thread title I ever seen
Greatest thread title ever!!!!
Oconeexman
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Womp
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Could we have one of those patented SE creeper storms?
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Could we have one of those patented SE creeper storms?
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Darklordsuperstorm
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Incoming
I had to look it up, but if you remember the 2/6-2/7 2021 event kinda started showing up in the short range models like this. Not really any signs of it, until the NAM and especially the HRRR started picking up on it.
Oconeexman
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Credit to burrel..he mentioned this one a week ago...it may be our best shot
From the NAM(s), it looks like either rain or snow. Tracking model trends for surface temps / dew points will be important but the most important item will be the upper air temps.
Here's the 3K NAM 850 temps at hour 60:
Lets see if we can trend the freezing line south a little the next few runs. **Maybe get a small (in-situ) high to pop up just north of us...
Here's the 3K NAM 850 temps at hour 60:
Lets see if we can trend the freezing line south a little the next few runs. **Maybe get a small (in-situ) high to pop up just north of us...
Well well what’s this a Christmas miracle or a Christmas illusion.
Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the NAM usually right in this range?
Oconeexman
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It does well in theses situations inside 60hrs..so yea it has a decent track record with light moisture fetch over running and picking up on the cold air advection. If it's still showing tomorrow at 12z we in bisiness...fingers crossed
What time does 12z come out tomorrow?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
10:30 am for GFS earlier for the NAM
I've seen little systems overperform in these situations. Got a good 3in snow from one in 2014 I believe. Nam was the only one bringing precip NW into the foothills. GSP didn't bite till two inches were on the ground. So fingers crossed this is an overperformer.
0z HRRRRRRR is now running. It goes out to 48 hours. Lets see if it matches with the 6z NAM. **man this is depressing putting my hopes in this low odds (small) event. But it is what it is...
According to most on this page, they are all low odds lol.
Banter useless posting still applies in this thread as well, just fyi