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Wintry Dec 21-22 street light 18z nam fantasy probably not happening but starting the thread anyway storm

Aren't SREF plumes overdone at this range generally. I'm getting over a quarter inch of liquid equivalent? I don't think so.
 
DopplerWx said:
Webb you still thinking sleet with this event? Upper levels still not conductive for snow even with heavier precip?
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If we get a heavier burst of precip and enough lift in the dendritic growth zone, then absolutely. I'm not too confident in this occurring except in the southern mountains near-SW of Asheville, where they could sneak an inch or so. Down over southern NC and upstate SC, temps aloft seem even more marginal for snow outside of a heavier burst here or there.

What we need to see is more warm advection like those earlier NAM runs bucking up against the colder air aloft over NC (certainly feasible knowing how these events tend to play out, perhaps the NAM overcorrected a little to the south?).

You can start having fun in these kinds of setups when the differential temperature advection that occurs across the 0°C (max temp) line aloft causes snowflakes to melt along this line, while warm advection continues unabated to the south. The end result of this is a steeper temperature gradient near the freezing/rain-snow line aloft, creating greater frontogenesis near and to the cold side of the rain-snow line, & ultimately higher precipitation rates too. Many of you likely saw this play out pretty well in December 2018 & February 2014.

Hence, when folks talk about needing to "smell the sleet" to get really good snow rates (I know @FallsLake has said this before in regards to Dec 2018), it's actually in large part because of this aforementioned physical process of differential temperature advection near the freezing line caused by melting of snowflakes juxtaposed against laterally advancing warm advection, which creates more frontogenetical forcing for ascent & heavier precip rates immediately adjacent to the rain-snow line.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Rain/snow mix being reported just north of Mobile, AL down near the Gulf coast
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So turning on the floodlights here wasn't being a total weenie then? And yes, I'll admit to checking Peachtree radar periodically to see if the virga ceiling is lowering ?‍♂️
 
Soon enough we’re going to need to start nowcasting. We need to see how far north that shield gets tomorrow .. if it’s as far north as the northern tip of Georgia/SC/bama we’re in business .. if it’s struggling to make it even halfway up the states .. forget it
 
The fact that the HRRR is picking up on this and seems to be ticking NW every hour gives me some pause. I keep thinking about that 2/6-7/2021 storm that just popped up in the last 12-18 hours with the HRRR leading the way. Now the FGEN forcing doesn’t appear to be as strong at this time, we’ve got a colder airmass in place.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Soon enough we’re going to need to start nowcasting. We need to see how far north that shield gets tomorrow .. if it’s as far north as the northern tip of Georgia/SC/bama we’re in business .. if it’s struggling to make it even halfway up the states .. forget it
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NickyBGuarantee said:
00z models are pretty much a dud .. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say this one is over before it even started.
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Make up your mind blud ??
 
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