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Wintry Dec 21-22 street light 18z nam fantasy probably not happening but starting the thread anyway storm

Latest from RAH (not bad):

Radar upstream is showing returns already across northern SC,
creeping into the far southern Piedmont and far southern Sandhills
later this morning to early afternoon. Some observations in SC
recently reported some light sleet mixing in with the light rain as
well. This is not surprising given the 850-700 mb layer thickness
sub-1540m. Would not be surprised if some sleet is reported across
this area prior to midday given the above considerations.

The better chance of precipitation, largely south of the Triangle
and across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and southern Coastal
Plain, will be tonight into the morning hours of Wed when the
shortwave tracks to our south and a surface wave develops offshore
of GA/SC. Similar to yesterday, the best moisture transport and lift
with frontogenetical forcing and jet divergence will be across SC.
However, there continues to be forcing from 700-500 mb frontogenesis
across the south tonight with associated mid-level ascent centered
on the 295-310 K surfaces. Partial thicknesses continue to support a
wintry mix across the aforementioned southern areas of central NC
with the 850-700mb layer below freezing and the sfc-850mb layer
exhibiting wet-bulbs close to freezing. A mix of rain/snow/sleet
could transition to a brief period of snow tonight/overnight,
especially if precip rates are light. Where precip rates would be
higher would favor a more probable ptype of rain/snow or rain as wet-
bulbs below 850mb slightly warm to near freezing. A dusting of light
snow accumulation could be possible in these areas but temperatures
will largely be in the low to middle 30s so any accumulation would
be on grassy surfaces/cars at best. Colder lows are expected to the
north and northwest with partial clearing, in the mid to upper 20s.
 
Oconeexman said:
Where lilnicky...multiple reports of sleet snow mixed 5 miles south and west of me
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Congrats guys! For me personally it’s best to keep expectations low so you don’t get too disappointed when nothing happens. But when something does happen it makes it so much more fun! Hope these suckers come north. But given my pessimism, the weather gods will probably not treat me well here. Cheers to all seeing a pellet or two!
 
Seen a few reports of sleet mixed w/ rain in Darlington, Dillon, & Timmonsville, SC. That band of precip looks to be moving into Lumberton, Laurinburg, & Rockingham. Curious if what's reaching the ground there is snow/sleet instead of rain/sleet.
 
Oconeexman said:
Light sleet here now..officially not skunked this winter!
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Just curious have you ever been skunked there?
Not being sarcastic.
I'm 52 and there's never been a year here without Snow.
I don't know how Northern Gvl County can be that much different than Oconee county.
I get places South of 85 because of elevation but,
Our elevation should be similar.
 
Billypg70 said:
Just curious have you ever been skunked there?
Not being sarcastic.
I'm 52 and there's never been a year here without Snow.
I don't know how Northern Gvl County can be that much different than Oconee county.
I get places South of 85 because of elevation but,
Our elevation should be similar.
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What is your elevation in taylors?
 
Billypg70 said:
Just curious have you ever been skunked there?
Not being sarcastic.
I'm 52 and there's never been a year here without Snow.
I don't know how Northern Gvl County can be that much different than Oconee county.
I get places South of 85 because of elevation but,
Our elevation should be similar.
Click to expand...
Not officially..im 50 and have at least seen flurries every year..but nothing like the late 70's to the late 80's. Best snows in that decade with multiple large ones.
 
Billypg70 said:
Just curious have you ever been skunked there?
Not being sarcastic.
I'm 52 and there's never been a year here without Snow.
I don't know how Northern Gvl County can be that much different than Oconee county.
I get places South of 85 because of elevation but,
Our elevation should be similar.
Click to expand...
It's a lot different than northern Greenville county... like, a lot! lol. Mainly due to lee side warm pocket near the surface in northwest flow, but also central/northen Oconee and Pickens county are usually a few degrees warmer than downtown Greenville in Classic CAD events.

We also miss out often on late-blooming stuff that gets lee-side eddy enhancement, but Greenville county cashes in on those setups from time to time.

I've seen a few winters in Oconee/Pickens with 0 accumulation of any wintry precip. Not even enough to classify as a trace.
 
Based on the (amazing) ground truth you guys have provided here, in addition to SPC’s mesoanalysis, this is roughly what I think the precip type distribution looks like in NC + SC atm

All snow in the mtns or NC, snow/ip mix over the upstate near-north or I-85, & a sleet rain mix further south into the midlands and pee dee region of SC to the southern coastal plain of NC.

7AAFC5B2-11A6-42B2-B132-ADD7E4058784.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Based on the (amazing) ground truth you guys have provided here, in addition to SPC’s mesoanalysis, this is roughly what I think the precip type distribution looks like in NC + SC atm

All snow in the mtns or NC, snow/ip mix over the upstate near-north or I-85, & a sleet rain mix further south into the midlands and pee dee region of SC to the southern coastal plain of NC.

View attachment 127825
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I would move sn/ip line just a little further southeast… I’m in southern Union County and have been getting on and off flurries and sleet for the last little bit.
 
rburrel2 said:
It's a lot different than northern Greenville county... like, a lot! lol. Mainly due to lee side warm pocket near the surface in northwest flow, but also central/northen Oconee and Pickens county are usually a few degrees warmer than downtown Greenville in Classic CAD events.

We also miss out often on late-blooming stuff that gets lee-side eddy enhancement, but Greenville county cashes in on those setups from time to time.

I've seen a few winters in Oconee/Pickens with 0 accumulation of any wintry precip. Not even enough to classify as a trace.
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I know I was invited to do a sports talk show out of Clemson the day after the SC @ Clemson game in 2000.
It was snowing the entire drive.
What I noticed was from my home thru a good portion of Gvl County had between 2 & 3 inches of snow at that time with a slushy mess on the roads.
When I got to Easley it was more like an 1 to 1.5 inches the roads were just wet.
Clemson had a coating to an inch in the grass.
Roads were just wet.
It was an eye opening experience.
 
Oconeexman said:
North Gville Univ sits at 1003ft so I'd say your close to 1200 at your house..id tell ya if ya pm me your address
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It fluctuates here with several areas around 1200 ft. Highway 357 is around 1050-1100'. Landrum is over 1100' Bird mountain in Landrum is close to 1500'. And of course maybe 5-10 minutes to the NW is 2500-3500 ft mountains in Greenville County that stares down where I live. The microclimates here are really interesting and even with little systems like this can get interesting from the extra lift.
 
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