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Wintry Dec 21-22 street light 18z nam fantasy probably not happening but starting the thread anyway storm

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The line keeps sinking south about 20-30 miles every run.
 
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Already printing out 1-2" totals and this is 100% an opportunity to over perform as FGEN forcing is generally under modeled ( see last years snow when 1-2" was being models but the upstate ended with 5-8" totals before a switch to sleet). I am not willing to make any call on totals yet, but if you keep trending like this, then this could quickly turn into a 2-4" mini surprise.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Please do not get your hopes up with this. It was really just one run of a long range nam that showed some snow. Something that has no support on any other model.
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Isn't this much more applicable in the Dec 23rd storm thread for North Carolina?? Just switch out GFS and NAM.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Please do not get your hopes up with this. It was really just one run of a long range nam that showed some snow. Something that has no support on any other model.
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Difference is it's not the long range NAM anymore. You're well within the Nam's range at 48 hours. I'd like to see more support, but this is definitely a setup that has overperformed in years past. Not saying we score, but it has some legs IMO
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Please do not get your hopes up with this. It was really just one run of a long range nam that showed some snow. Something that has no support on any other model.
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From what I've seen most models have trended wetter and show precip in parts of the upstate and ne ga and parts of NC for this time frame. And temp profiles have gotten cooler each run and are very close to winter precip if not already there. Yes it's not a BFD or a snowstorm were talking about but it's a legit threat at least. Those of us that are hoping the the Nam is on to something will continue to discuss. Those of you who hope it doesn't can watch the next threat for your neck of the woods. And inside 48hrs isn't long range Nam imo. You could be right but we will be ok if you are right..dont worry.
 
My expectations for an event like this (for now) would be a brief light sleet/rain mix. I'd like to see a few other models hop on board w/ the NAM. If you want to see snow out of this, your best bet is probably to be close to the blue ridge mtns in southwestern NC, where upslope flow will be superposed onto WAA and isentropic upglide.
 
A rain/sleet mix would probably be the favored precipitation type (if any) based on the 3km NAM soundings. If we get a little more lift/ascent in the DGZ, maybe there could be a wet snow flake or two. Evidence of a warm nose aloft and strong low-level dew point depression & potential for wet bulbing significantly below freezing to refreeze some rain drops back into ice pellets.

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Quick scan of the models this morning and all of them are showing .1-.2 liquid for the northern upstate on Tuesday. Soundings are still wildly different depending on which model you pick. Hard to say what will fall, but going off past experience I'd say mostly sleet with a little snow mixing in for the northern upstate. Still an outside shot at a surprise 1-3 inches of snow if precip outperforms on the northern edge.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Believe it or not the EPS shows support of where some sleet could fall View attachment 127554
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Feel pretty decent about this system’s chances after seeing that, at least to see some sleet east of the mountains and maybe a nice coating SW of Asheville. Pretty typical short range trends for a storm whose precip is mostly waa driven
 
Webberweather53 said:
Feel pretty decent about this system’s chances after seeing that, at least to see some sleet east of the mountains and maybe a nice coating SW of Asheville. Pretty typical short range trends for a storm whose precip is mostly waa driven
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Yep just now made a first call map, we are down bad 2FD44DA6-7A73-4002-9A10-08205DCAAD85.jpeg
 
Webb you still thinking sleet with this event? Upper levels still not conductive for snow even with heavier precip?
 
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