Ok….I hope the HRRRRRRRR shows the same thing as the 6z NAM. Since most on here consider all events low odds due to us living in the SE, I figure this one has a good of a chance as any.
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Wintry Dec 21-22 street light 18z nam fantasy probably not happening but starting the thread anyway storm
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cmon man it’s just in reach, literally all we need is a 40-60 mile jump north in the shield and we cookin 
DobsonCityWx
Member
If by a miracle that did happen there would be major consequences for NC on Thursday morning. Rain would certainly be removed from the forecast and this would lay the stages for ice.
It's a banter storm ?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Do you think that little bit of snow-cover would cause a stronger CAD?
iGRXY
Member
CAD typically over performs especially in situations where you have light to moderate precip shields. Just a matter of getting it a little further north.
I mean that’s really not that out of line to think the Euro at 60 hrs out doesn’t have precip expanded far enough north in this kind of a set up
DobsonCityWx
Member
It would need to over perform for sure and we might have something much bigger on our hands. If 3-6” fell with a mostly cloudy day the following I think system Thursday morning would be able to support ice.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
If we can get the NAM's moisture along with the EURO's temperature profile? It would be a big deal.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I know how these kinds of setups tend to trend inside 48-72 hours, but I'd like to see another model other than the NAM on board for me to be fully sold.
The main vortex backing up into the Rockies instead of progressing into the Great Lakes as we thought a few days ago, has allowed this wave to face less confluence & shearing on its way across the Gulf Coast, thus being more amped + moving the precip shield further north + closer to NC.
The main vortex backing up into the Rockies instead of progressing into the Great Lakes as we thought a few days ago, has allowed this wave to face less confluence & shearing on its way across the Gulf Coast, thus being more amped + moving the precip shield further north + closer to NC.
RGEM was still pretty south with precip at 18z. I’m still concerned in the end there will be too much WAA if trends continue.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There is no precip in this setup without WAA.
It’s definitely a delicate see-saw. It’s probably our only shot at anything for probably at least three weeks so I’m trying to roll with it.
We actually need stronger WAA in this setup, since WAA/FGEN is our forcing agents in this general setup
Oconeexman
Member
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0Z Nam rolling, we're inside that 48hr mark. Let's see what she shows. Looks to have initially started a couple degrees too warm at the surface but no big deal right now
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even going off of the 0z HRRR, trace amounts of light sleet mixed w/ rain is very achievable here, much more so than snow outside the mountains. Freezing drizzle & light ZR would also be a concern in the piedmont + Blue Ridge Escarpment of NC, esp if the precip can get here Tue morning instead of the afternoon-evening. Need lift & WAA to be strong enough & closer to the DGZ to kickoff wet snow.
The stronger WAA in this set up actually helps because the stronger forcing leads to better rates and more dynamic cooling
Asking for more WAA feels like a monkeys paw thing. It’s against my nature ?.
I wonder if there’s a decent analog for what the NAM saw..
iGRXY
Member
Bit more moisture and better temps at 850 so far through 39.