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Wintry Dec 21-22 street light 18z nam fantasy probably not happening but starting the thread anyway storm

Yep, we'll have to nowcast (pray/hope) from this point forward.

Here's RAH:
IF some light precipitation can crawl northward into the
colder/drier air over the Triangle etc... then there could be more
of an issue of some light snow/light sleet (with the wet bulb zero
forecasts below 30 through 12z/Wed.) Mid level thicknesses 1535-
1545m and low level thicknesses around 1300m to 1308m (06z-15z)
Tuesday.

Bottom line... Expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Some very light
sleet/snow along with some light rain possible southern tier of
counties. No accumulation. Lows in the upper 20s NE to mid 30s
south.
 
There is blue on the radar in Canon GA close to our construction site. I'm not there to see if it's doing anything yet though. Gotta hurry and go look. lol
 
Interesting, I feel like we don’t hear this from FFC often, but it’s definitely possible pretty good CAD events tend to do this.

By 00Z tonight, the trough axis is projected to be along the GA/AL
border, with rain chances then pushing out of the forecast area from
NW to SE through the overnight hours. As weak subsidence sets in
behind the trough axis, we could breakout of the low-level cloud
cover through the day, but by Wednesday morning cold air damming
from a weak parent high pressure system in the Mid Atlantic states
could force a weak wedge front in through northern portions of the
forecast area with drier dewpoints around 30 degrees. Wednesday
temperatures will then be dependent on if/when low-level clouds
break. Forecast currently calls for highs near 50 degrees with most
models betting on the subsidence, but the wedge has a good winning
percentage this time of year so that may change going forward into
the night.

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
 
SD said:
The radar returns pushing up near and north of HSV are encouraging but it seems like most models want to pin the best mid level convergence right along the border. You can see the hrrr seemingly hitting a wall with a decent W to E oriented heavier band.
Click to expand...
Yep, persistent feed of low level dry air as well. It’s gonna be hard for this stuff to fall north of the border. Only thing that gives me a little hope is how moist it is around H5, but this is a WAA generated situation anyways (lower levels) B7DEFDF7-C6E7-45FB-9271-889AC8A8B74D.png68967D95-2B62-4AF5-B320-BA40ACBCA040.png
 
The 3km NAM and HRRR seem to be underdoing the precipitation coverage somewhat across SC this morning. That coupled with the fact that this is the kind of setup (WAA driven) that tends to bust high, it makes me think the 12km NAM isn't totally out to lunch here, although possibly still overdone.


We really just need the warm advection to reach the 0°C 850mb line aloft near the NC-SC border, so that we can kickstart the process of diabatically-induced differential temperature advection/frontogenesis enhancement of precipitation.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 3km NAM and HRRR seem to be underdoing the precipitation coverage somewhat across SC this morning. That coupled with the fact that this is the kind of setup (WAA driven) that tends to bust high, it makes me think the 12km NAM isn't totally out to lunch here, although possibly still overdone.


We really just need the warm advection to reach the 0°C 850mb line aloft near the NC-SC border, so that we can kickstart the process of diabatically-induced differential temperature advection/frontogenesis enhancement of precipitation.
Click to expand...
Agree 100% Eric..ground truth proving much wetter than what some models are initializing at as usual in these types of events. Appreciate you brother
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 3km NAM and HRRR seem to be underdoing the precipitation coverage somewhat across SC this morning. That coupled with the fact that this is the kind of setup (WAA driven) that tends to bust high, it makes me think the 12km NAM isn't totally out to lunch here, although possibly still overdone.


We really just need the warm advection to reach the 0°C 850mb line aloft near the NC-SC border, so that we can kickstart the process of diabatically-induced differential temperature advection/frontogenesis enhancement of precipitation.
Click to expand...

You can actually see this process on the 6z NAM right near the NC-SC border. The negative temperature advection (in blue) is actually being caused by melting snowflakes at the leading edge of the warm nose.

Capture.JPG
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can actually see this process on the 6z NAM right near the NC-SC border. The negative temperature advection (in blue) is actually being caused by melting snowflakes at the leading edge of the warm nose.

View attachment 127813
Click to expand...
Webb what exactly are the green circles on that map. I get the blue shaded areas but not the circles
 
Webberweather53 said:
You can actually see this process on the 6z NAM right near the NC-SC border. The negative temperature advection (in blue) is actually being caused by melting snowflakes at the leading edge of the warm nose.

View attachment 127813
Click to expand...
Ground truth, (via My Daughter) Some Token Flakes, very few, are making it to the Ground at the NC/SC border, in columbis Co. around Clarendon..
 
jackendrickwx said:
Somewhat encouraged by the very light returns that passed south of the GSP radar having some mPing’s associated with them. Surprised it was making it to the ground
Click to expand...
How are you getting that more sensitive radar mode ? Mine is normal still F2360D43-A7AB-4AA2-AEF9-53018CEEE81D.png
 
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