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Pattern Dazzling December

Hypsometric said:
We also need more 12z ICON than 18z ICON. It appears there is a crucial period (seen in the loop) where energy moving around the Pacific ridge either consolidates with our big low that sets the Atlantic OR buckles the western ridge by digging southwest under the Pacific ridge and sets up a Rex block and wrecks the Pacific pattern.

View attachment 125457

To get where we want to go, this may be the first crucial hurdle we have to clear (probably won't be the last).
Click to expand...
It *appears* as though we are going to avoid the first hurdle I mentioned.

Hurdle #2 (as Fro has mentioned also) looks to be where the injection of the second TPV and consolidation of the trapped vortex under the block locates. Further east would be much more ideal as that would establish the mean trough axis further east as we head into the week of Christmas where our first real potential likely exists.

Last night's 00z EPS was dumping in the west, but today's 12z took a step east. We need another one or two of those to match the 12z GEFS.

eps00z.png

eps12z.png

gefs12z.png

This may be the next crucial hurdle to traverse to get where we want to go.
 
Hypsometric said:
It *appears* as though we are going to avoid the first hurdle I mentioned.

Hurdle #2 (as Fro has mentioned also) looks to be where the injection of the second TPV and consolidation of the trapped vortex under the block locates. Further east would be much more ideal as that would establish the mean trough axis further east as we head into the week of Christmas where our first real potential likely exists.

Last night's 00z EPS was dumping in the west, but today's 12z took a step east. We need another one or two of those to match the 12z GEFS.

View attachment 125607

View attachment 125608

View attachment 125609

This may be the next crucial hurdle to traverse to get where we want to go.
Click to expand...
Yep, the most difficult one, gotta watch out because we’re in a pattern where wavelengths are short right now due to the intense blocking, if we fail, we would have to wait on a boot in the pacific trough to kick the ridge east and that would Just be another pain
 
Ollie Williams said:
Probabilities for over an inch:View attachment 125612
Click to expand...
With that kind of N. American snowpack along with the cross-polar flow that appears to be trying to set up around and just after Christmas, some areas of the SE could actually see below zero temps at some point before the month is out. Dare I say a 70s retro winter? (Yes, I'm that old lol)
 
Ollie Williams said:
Probabilities for over an inch:View attachment 125612
Click to expand...
That's amazing that an ensemble mean can pick up on the smaller climates as accurately as this shows, particularly in the upstate. The 40-50% range is the tallest mountains, the 30-40% is generally what is classified as the northern upstate/areas up to 1800 ft elevation and who scores during marginal setups. The 20-30% is the next footprint that scores when the pattern is better than marginal, and finally the midlands and areas around I20. Really interesting to see.
 
Just had a chance to look at today’s teleconnections update and things are still holding very good. AO remains strongly negative, NAO makes a run at neutral this week but then falls back to solid negative through the end of the run, PNA goes slightly positive later this week and holds through the end, and the MJO stays low amp or COD near phases 8,1,2… it does start to go into phase 3 low amp towards the end but then loops back into the COD and towards the good phases
 
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