Pattern Dazzling December

[Hypsometric]

While this may be true, it’s pretty early to be saying that in absolute, it’s a system that’s reliant on tilt and how low the height field is out ahead, and WAA. can’t disregard it

I think another huge wildcard is when the upper low in the Pacific begins to eject east/sends PVA waves east, and when/if northern stream energy could phase with it.

There is tons of potential with this setup.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’d still be a little nervous on the progression, I eventually think we’ll get a favorable ridge out west due to the pacific trough sliding east, but I’d watch for energy spoiling/pushing back our pacific pattern if it rounds the ridge to early behind our big cutoff next week and dumps in SW can/PNW. Something to keep a eye on, but I’m cautiously optimistic

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 125587

But here comes the Aleutian low, that should give the ridge a “boot east” and scoot the TPV east

 

[LukeBarrette]

We definitely have a timeframe to watch

 

[BullCityWx]

View attachment 125589
View attachment 125590
View attachment 125591
We definitely have a timeframe to watch

Agreed with you there, especially north of 40.

 

[Inghamusic]

Kirk Mellish is on board.... Well mostly.

 

[Mitch West]

Long range Euro brings the cold big time, but looks like it dumps it West instead of East, which is a huge difference compared to the Long range 00z run.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS has higher heights out west vs the euro having lower

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is a good trend to me, stronger west based -NAO as well

 

[SD]

This is a good trend to me, stronger west based -NAO as well View attachment 125595

Definitely feeding all of the arctic into the pattern at this point

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Kirk Mellish is on board.... Well mostly.

Thanks for posting Kirk's blog. He's the go-to guru for N. Georgia weather IMO.

From his blog:

"This blocking pattern is rare and something we’ve not seen to this extent in many many winters. It’s projected to become as conducive as one could hope for, but it’s so anomalous that the models will struggle with it more than usual."

Several on this board have alluded to the same. Good company!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

EPS has higher heights out west vs the euro having lower View attachment 125593View attachment 125594

We run with ensembles at this juncture. But at least we’re realizing what we want to look at to be successful in this pattern. Makes model watching a bit easier and sane.

 

[Flotown]

saturday and sunday definately has my attention

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Boot setting up the the pacific, TPV about to move east and it’s about to get cold, higher cutoff ridge north of Alaska

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 125597

Man this is beautiful. So much CAA available right above our heads with these continued looks of holding pieces of the PV over South Canada and the GL.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Look at that cutoff block. Holy ---- that’s ------- incredible ----, the Arctic heigh field is on fire !

 

[Rain Cold]

Look at that cutoff block. Holy ---- that’s ------- incredible ----, the Arctic heigh field is on fire ! View attachment 125600View attachment 125599

Not bad for an ensemble mean. Central US looks quite cold.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS with a Big overrunning signal

 

[iGRXY]

Textbook CPF. Just a train of High pressure moving out of Siberia and into NA.