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Pattern Dazzling December

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These 500mb anomalies are insane for a 240 hour ensemble mean. Can’t ask for a much better pattern for a winter storm. Just need a potent shortwave in the southern stream.


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Let me also come in and remind everyone … it’s still hard to get a good winter storm in the south! Keep expectations at a fair standard at this range. We have failed many great patterns before. But look at us! It’s mid December and we’re tracking an amazing pattern for Christmas week! That almost never happens and usually we’re all complaining about how warm it is for this time of year. Let’s appreciate what we can get and know that we still have January and February to score as well IF things don’t go the way we hope.
 
I’d still be a little nervous on the progression, I eventually think we’ll get a favorable ridge out west due to the pacific trough sliding east, but I’d watch for energy spoiling/pushing back our pacific pattern if it rounds the ridge to early behind our big cutoff next week and dumps in SW can/PNW. Something to keep a eye on, but I’m cautiously optimistic
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’d still be a little nervous on the progression, I eventually think we’ll get a favorable ridge out west due to the pacific trough sliding east, but I’d watch for energy spoiling/pushing back our pacific pattern if it rounds the ridge to early behind our big cutoff next week and dumps in SW can/PNW. Something to keep a eye on, but I’m cautiously optimistic
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As long as we keep the strong -NAO, I am not too concerned about dumping the cold out west.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I really doubt that system has the potential of doing anything interesting beyond some flurries in AL/MS/LA/TX. The energy coming out from Canada is going to favor a sheared-out system.
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While this may be true, it’s pretty early to be saying that in absolute, it’s a system that’s reliant on tilt and how low the height field is out ahead, and WAA. can’t disregard it
 
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