Pattern Dazzling December

[HKY1994]

These 500mb anomalies are insane for a 240 hour ensemble mean. Can’t ask for a much better pattern for a winter storm. Just need a potent shortwave in the southern stream.


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[NickyBGuarantee]

Let me also come in and remind everyone … it’s still hard to get a good winter storm in the south! Keep expectations at a fair standard at this range. We have failed many great patterns before. But look at us! It’s mid December and we’re tracking an amazing pattern for Christmas week! That almost never happens and usually we’re all complaining about how warm it is for this time of year. Let’s appreciate what we can get and know that we still have January and February to score as well IF things don’t go the way we hope.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Full on weenie mode on the CMC ensembles

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’d still be a little nervous on the progression, I eventually think we’ll get a favorable ridge out west due to the pacific trough sliding east, but I’d watch for energy spoiling/pushing back our pacific pattern if it rounds the ridge to early behind our big cutoff next week and dumps in SW can/PNW. Something to keep a eye on, but I’m cautiously optimistic

 

[SD]

Such a weenie pattern on the 12z GEFS View attachment 125565View attachment 125566View attachment 125567

You don't make them much more classic than this for central NC

 

[Met1985]

These 500mb anomalies are insane for a 240 hour ensemble mean. Can’t ask for a much better pattern for a winter storm. Just need a potent shortwave in the southern stream.


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The GEFS is a thing of beauty! One of the best runs I've seen yet.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

I’d still be a little nervous on the progression, I eventually think we’ll get a favorable ridge out west due to the pacific trough sliding east, but I’d watch for energy spoiling/pushing back our pacific pattern if it rounds the ridge to early behind our big cutoff next week and dumps in SW can/PNW. Something to keep a eye on, but I’m cautiously optimistic

As long as we keep the strong -NAO, I am not too concerned about dumping the cold out west.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

The GEFS is a thing of beauty! One of the best runs I've seen yet.

I could not draw up a better pattern than that one. Now, let see if we can keep it there for a few weeks.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro looking good

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Storm5]

???

 

[Hypsometric]

12z euro comparison to yesterday's 12z euro

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The good Ol JB and Mack “hockey stick” pattern

 

[Myfrotho704_]

???

 

[Ollie Williams]

???View attachment 125582View attachment 125583View attachment 125584

I really doubt that system has the potential of doing anything interesting beyond some flurries in AL/MS/LA/TX. The energy coming out from Canada is going to favor a sheared-out system.

 

[SD]

Nice jet over the SE, this would probably over perform

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I really doubt that system has the potential of doing anything interesting beyond some flurries in AL/MS/LA/TX. The energy coming out from Canada is going to favor a sheared-out system.

While this may be true, it’s pretty early to be saying that in absolute, it’s a system that’s reliant on tilt and how low the height field is out ahead, and WAA. can’t disregard it

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

What's that 805 Mb LP doing out in hurricane land?

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

I really doubt that system has the potential of doing anything interesting beyond some flurries in AL/MS/LA/TX. The energy coming out from Canada is going to favor a sheared-out system.

I wouldn't turn my back on it.... it may surprise you.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]