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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Dow is holding up relatively well for now with it back to being 600 off the lows. Maybe, just maybe the low of today will end up as THE low of this mess?

Meanwhile, even gold is down 4%! OTOH, corn is actually up for the day and has overall held up fine with it down less than 4% the last week.
 
SD said:
There's a bigger elephant in the room though and that's everyone wants to run lean. With the rise of the 3pl warehouse model that many companies have gone to no one wants to pay storage and handling on their inventory so everything is just in time and based on a forcast with paper thin margin for error. Whether you are a domestic manufacturer or an import redistributor that philosophy leads to significant out of stock periods when there is any supply chain disruption or surge in demand. When the tariff increase hit we ran into similar issues due to ther influx of containers at American ports and the lack of manpower to clear customs and be trucked to our locations. When we asked domestic suppliers for inventory to backfill they basically said sorry no inventory because everyone else is doing the same.

A global supply chain and economy is fine if people prepare correctly. There is too much of an obsession on margins and the idea that freight and distribution are margin killers in the supply chain. Companies want to shoe horn people like myself into being judged on metrics of how close is your forecast, how many points did you save on margin that preparation for any disruption is damn near impssible. I wanted to order up on our PPE in January but couldn't because it would put my PO spend above my metric set. Now we are struggling to find product.

Ebit, bottom line dollars, margin % are what means everything not fortifying your supply chain
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This is THE problem that we are going to be dealing with. I'd rather see more people become aware of this and be urged to prepare now, while there are resources and time. We're way too reactive.
 
Sandbar said:
Ill be in Kabul this go around. Prob.hop around a few other spots. These stints never come without a we forgot to mention or two but its my last trip over there......
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You’ve already ETS’d, right? If you make it to Bagram and happen to run into any Air Force FF’s (SSGT Tony Hair in particular) ask him how he likes AF Fire instead of being a PJ. He got hurt about nine years ago at Balad (completely destroyed his knee) and he wasn’t fit for duty as a PJ anymore. To let you know, he said he misses certain aspects of being a PJ, but not getting shot at is a big plus and he loves being a FF since his father and grandfather are both retired Dallas fire officers.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Saying it's the flu virus really diminishes the importance of the CoV-19 which was & has been Trump's intention from the outset, this is absolutely nothing like the seasonal flu virus, even though you're doing the best you can to spin it that way. Prepared as we could be? Loool ookkaay sure when you make large budget cuts to the health entities of the federal government, & say things like "the virus will disappear by April" literally just a week or two ago and not to mention sent federal officials to care for US citizens overseas affected by CoV-19 with no protection, that's not just unhinged, it's total incompetence & sheer ignorance. There's a massive difference between calming public fears over CoV-19 and being outright dishonest to them and giving them a false sense of security and Trump is not doing a good job at balancing these two.

At no point did I ever say or imply that we should shut everything down in the CONUS right now, don't put words in my mouth k thanks.
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I’m simply saying there’s nothing more we can do that we aren’t already doing
 
Matthew70 said:
Mexico confirmed first case. So now we know it’s here. Why is world reacting like it is? Govt especially? Is it that bad? Now hospitals need to start preparing and US needs to not give away anymore medical supplies. US needs to get all Antibiotics it can here. Not that we will need them but safe to have. Plans at hospitals should be made to make sure staff has sufficient rest when can. Exhausted staff will hurt. Also any retired nurses and doc and medical background should be contacted to help if they are willing. May not need but does not hurt in case hospitals are over run.
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Antibiotics don't do anything for viruses. The fact people still think they do is why antibiotics continue to be overused by people so we have antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria.
 
The Stock Market is crashing solely due to the fact supply chains have been shut down from china long enough now to start inflicting major damge to companies beyond repair. The Addidas , Underarmour, Nikes of the world, Pharma companies, Apple just to name a few are in it way to deep and unless they have an alternative supplier, it will take them a long time to ever think about recovering these lost profits or see these margins again if they do survive. All commerce related.

Mankind isnt going to be wiped off the planet here folks due to the coronovirus. We lose over a 100 people a day in this country to automobile accidents. Thousands each year to the seasonal flu. We will get through this and my biggest fear is when the spike peaks here locally, I hope the hospitals can handle the severe cases , which is roughly 19% of all those infected (pneumonia complications). Beleve 81% are mild at worst.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Good and new information coming from ItalyView attachment 36507View attachment 36508
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Not just thst, check this out.

In Veneto 151 cases (+18), 33 hospitalized
There are 151 cases of positivity to the Coronavirus tests in Veneto, according to the latest update released by the Region and relating to 1 pm. Of these, 95 are asymptomatic, 33 are the total inpatients, of which 9 in intensive care. The largest outbreak remains in Vò Euganeo, with 70 cases, followed by Treviso with 23, then Venice with 10, Limena with 9, Mirano with 5 and Vicenza with 3
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That is 63% asymptomatic. This really is an elderly hitting disease. All the deaths in Italy in the past day were 75+, with most in their 80s.
 
tramadoc said:
You’ve already ETS’d, right? If you make it to Bagram and happen to run into any Air Force FF’s (SSGT Tony Hair in particular) ask him how he likes AF Fire instead of being a PJ. He got hurt about nine years ago at Balad (completely destroyed his knee) and he wasn’t fit for duty as a PJ anymore. To let you know, he said he misses certain aspects of being a PJ, but not getting shot at is a big plus and he loves being a FF since his father and grandfather are both retired Dallas fire officers.
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2017 for me. I am contracting since training their SF and police. Mostly CQB. I also still do some work up in NAS Oceana with DEVGRU black squadron. There is opportunity there when I get home but would require a move back which my wife wouldnt be thrilled about. She sacrificed enough so this is prob. my farewell party. Much respect for PJ's! Those guys are bad ass.....
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Good and new information coming from ItalyView attachment 36507View attachment 36508
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I get why they want to not count mild cases but we as a civilization need to have every case counted for future reference when one of these new viruses comes out and has a mortality rate in the 40 to 50% range. We cant learn properly if we learn off of partial datasets.

Secondly with reports that this has around a 14% rate of reinfection those mild cases can always come back and be more severe.
 
Steven_1974 said:
Antibiotics don't do anything for viruses. The fact people still think they do is why antibiotics continue to be overused by people so we have antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria.
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I am referring to when it becomes an infection in the lungs. The virus attacks the lungs and creates an infection in them.
 
Shaggy said:
I get why they want to not count mild cases but we as a civilization need to have every case counted for future reference when one of these new viruses comes out and has a mortality rate in the 40 to 50% range. We cant learn properly if we learn off of partial datasets.

Secondly with reports that this has around a 14% rate of reinfection those mild cases can always come back and be more severe.
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I don’t know if you saw but I edited and added more info they put out .. they are counting all cases still but just dividing up severe cases vs mild cases to have a real grasp on the severe situation
 
Arcc said:
Not really that worrying to me. When your administration is getting it and you are exporting it to other counties it probably very widespread. Probably 10 to 20 thousand infected there if not more.
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Agree and you've been making this point for days now.... the mortality rate is most likely skewed high because there is a very good probability that it is far more widespread then we currently have data. I think many people panic when they think about how widespread it may already be, but on the flip side of that, it would mean the mortality rate is much less. Obviously that would be a good thing
 
Steven_1974 said:
Antibiotics don't do anything for viruses. The fact people still think they do is why antibiotics continue to be overused by people so we have antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria.
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Also a problem are people stopping antibiotics prematurely. I am not 100% sure, but I believe it's been a long time since we've developed any new antibiotics.
 
metwannabe said:
Agree and you've been making this point for days now.... the mortality rate is most likely skewed high because there is a very good probability that it is far more widespread then we currently have data. I think many people panic when they think about how widespread it may already be, but on the flip side of that, it would mean the mortality rate is much less. Obviously that would be a good thing
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Yep. I imagine there will be a lot of testing done around the world for people going to see a doctor for anything just to get an idea of how prevalent this is out in the community to get a better handle on the real numbers.
 
restricted area watch for this term to start being used... Sounds better than lockdown I suppose
 
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