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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Against my better judgement I decided to dig into some numbers. Someone ran the numbers on China’s deaths from COVID-19 and here are the preliminary death rates for vulnerable groups:

  • 14.3% for people over 80
  • 10.5 percent for cardiovascular disease
  • 7.3 percent for diabetes
  • 6.3 percent for chronic respiratory disease
  • 6.0 percent for hypertension
  • 5.6 percent for cancer
Y’all keep that mess up in Wake county.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Against my better judgement I decided to dig into some numbers. Someone ran the numbers on China’s deaths from COVID-19 and here are the preliminary death rates for vulnerable groups:

  • 14.3% for people over 80
  • 10.5 percent for cardiovascular disease
  • 7.3 percent for diabetes
  • 6.3 percent for chronic respiratory disease
  • 6.0 percent for hypertension
  • 5.6 percent for cancer
Y’all keep that mess up in Wake county.
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all ages with diabetes and hypertension? IF so, that's significant, and scary as f---.
 
SETNwx said:
all ages with diabetes and hypertension? IF so, that's significant, and scary as f---.
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Yeah that’s the thing, there’s not much to go off of. The ADA claims this is similar/slightly worse on diabetics than the flu. I’m a well controlled T1D but illness can wreak havoc on your blood sugar. All it takes is one bad day and that’s all she wrote. I’m confident I’ve already survived worse than the coronavirus. I mean, even with the flu death rate is 3-4 times higher in a diabetic but I’ve had it many times over the years and it doesn’t scare me. I think the fear with this one is a lot stronger than the virus itself. The anticipation is hard to handle.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Against my better judgement I decided to dig into some numbers. Someone ran the numbers on China’s deaths from COVID-19 and here are the preliminary death rates for vulnerable groups:

  • 14.3% for people over 80
  • 10.5 percent for cardiovascular disease
  • 7.3 percent for diabetes
  • 6.3 percent for chronic respiratory disease
  • 6.0 percent for hypertension
  • 5.6 percent for cancer
Y’all keep that mess up in Wake county.
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Where did you get the data for disease groups? And I have the same question as a large majority of those have to be over the age of ~60. For instance is that 6% death rate for 25-40yo with HTN only?

Also need to differentiate between type 1 diabetics and type 2. Type 2 diabetes are way more likely to have other disease states such as COPD, HTN, and CVD, which would falsely skew the percentage higher.

I think these percentages are flawed unless this was taken into consideration.


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Nick_boynton_ said:
They’ve only been able to get limited amounts of testing out .. next couple weeks will provide 75000 testing kits and then they are sending out millions of test kits as soon as funding goes through.. also WHO says the death rate globally is 3.2 % I believe and that’s not hype that’s just what WHO has actually said today.. it’s not over hype it’s a spreading and very infectious disease and if it gets a hold on elderly and someone with preexisting conditions it can be deadly .. letting our guard down will only lead to the disease being able to easily spread and if that happens it becomes easier for it to reach these most vulnerable people ..
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Outside China the death rate is much lower though I believe, below 2% and that includes Italy. He’s right assuming it’s not as bad as we think. The death rate will continue to go down as we get more positive ceases. The sample size is entirely too small to make a judgement on death rate in the United States. I’m pretty sure when this outbreak was beginning people were estimating the death rate to be over 10% and freaking out...it’s just a faulty way of calculating until we get enough positive tests.

I agree with your post though, great advice and thinking. The young need to take steps to protect the old.
 
Jon said:
Outside China the death rate is much lower though I believe, below 2% and that includes Italy. He’s right assuming it’s not as bad as we think. The death rate will continue to go down as we get more positive ceases. The sample size is entirely too small to make a judgement on death rate in the United States. I’m pretty sure when this outbreak was beginning people were estimating the death rate to be over 10% and freaking out...it’s just a faulty way of calculating until we get enough positive tests.

I agree with your post though, great advice and thinking. The young need to take steps to protect the old.
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Indeed - there's an untold number of cases that haven't been diagnosed because the infected persons are asymptomatic. Over half the COVID cases on the Diamond Princess presented no symptoms, and would probably never have been tested were they not confined to the ship.

diamond prin.png
wwwnc.cdc.gov

COVID-19 in 2 Persons with Mild Upper Respiratory Tract Symptoms on a Cruise Ship, Japan

COVID-19 in Persons with Mild Respiratory Tract Symptoms
wwwnc.cdc.gov wwwnc.cdc.gov
 
Sandbar said:
Imagine if people took the flu this serious!
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It has definitely been taken serious before, recent example was 2017-2018 when the predominant strain was H3N2, one of the worst flu seasons, coronavirus is quite similar to H3N2, probably a little bit worse, and H3N2 caused a significantly bigger amount of hospitalizations/deaths, we’ve just learned to live with the flu around us , COVID-19 is a new virus that still has uncertainty all around it, it’s honestly expected it would be getting attention
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
They’ve only been able to get limited amounts of testing out .. next couple weeks will provide 75000 testing kits and then they are sending out millions of test kits as soon as funding goes through.. also WHO says the death rate globally is 3.2 % I believe and that’s not hype that’s just what WHO has actually said today.. it’s not over hype it’s a spreading and very infectious disease and if it gets a hold on elderly and someone with preexisting conditions it can be deadly .. letting our guard down will only lead to the disease being able to easily spread and if that happens it becomes easier for it to reach these most vulnerable people ..
Click to expand...
And the WHO has been slow playing this from the get go.

Have to remember that if we're going to conclude that there are cases out there we don't know about, which is likely, then there are also hospitalizations and deaths that are not correctly attributed to the Coronavirus.

Point is, we really don't know for sure what the CFR really is. We know the cases which were identified through testing. We know the deaths that were identified through testing. We know the recovered. But we don't know the outcome of all the people who are neither dead nor recovered. We don't know how many have it or had it and haven't been tested. We don't know how many were hospitalized or killed due to the virus that weren't tested.
 
Rain Cold said:
And the WHO has been slow playing this from the get go.

Have to remember that if we're going to conclude that there are cases out there we don't know about, which is likely, then there are also hospitalizations and deaths that are not correctly attributed to the Coronavirus also.

Point is, we really don't know for sure what the CFR really is. We know the cases which were identified through testing. We know the deaths that were identified through testing. We know the recovered. But we don't know the outcome of all the people who are neither dead or recovered. We don't know how many have it or had it and haven't been tested. We don't know how many were hospitalized or killed due to the virus that weren't tested.
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Not to mention there’s now 2 versions of this virus, we don’t know which strain is dominant here right now
 
Looks like Henry McMaster is going to be giving an update around 10 o'clock.

SC DHEC to share update on coronavirus

The South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control is expected to share an update on the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on Thursday morning. That news comes according to a tweet from state Sen. Marlon Kimpson. The update is expected to be given at 10 a. m. Officials confirmed...
abcnews4.com abcnews4.com
Maybe an update on these.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It has definitely been taken serious before, recent example was 2017-2018 when the predominant strain was H3N2, one of the worst flu seasons, coronavirus is quite similar to H3N2, probably a little bit worse, and H3N2 caused a significantly bigger amount of hospitalizations/deaths, we’ve just learned to live with the flu around us , COVID-19 is a new virus that still has uncertainty all around it, it’s honestly expected it would be getting attention
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Ok I retract my statement. If only people panicked about the flu every year like they did in 2017-2018. You think more lives could be saved? Sure they could and thats what this is all about. Protecting lives
 
Snowfan said:
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I don’t normally agree with this guy because usually what comes out of mouth, much like Joe Biden, is complete jibberish, but he’s probably correct. If you look into death numbers in China which are total deaths of 25,000 people a day from all things (if true) the death toll is about 0.001% with COVID19.
 
Jon said:
Where did you get the data for disease groups? And I have the same question as a large majority of those have to be over the age of ~60. For instance is that 6% death rate for 25-40yo with HTN only?

Also need to differentiate between type 1 diabetics and type 2. Type 2 diabetes are way more likely to have other disease states such as COPD, HTN, and CVD, which would falsely skew the percentage higher.

I think these percentages are flawed unless this was taken into consideration.


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“According to one study of 45,000 confirmed cases in China, fewer than 1.0% of healthy people who contracted the COVID-19 virus died from the disease. But that percentage was around 6.0% for people with cancer, hypertension or chronic respiratory disease, 7.3% for those with diabetes and 10.5% for those with cardiovascular disease. Patients who were 80 or older were also at increased risk, with 14.8% dying.”

I saw this information published in several news articles. I’m just not sure who conducted the study.
 
Sandbar said:
Ok I retract my statement. If only people panicked about the flu every year like they did in 2017-2018. You think more lives could be saved? Sure they could and thats what this is all about. Protecting lives
Click to expand...

I think another reason people are less worried about the flu is there are vaccines that help reduce the impact.....we also have anti virals like Tamiflu that target the flu and offset the severity of it if taken in time, my son tested positive for Flu B back in Dec they put him and me on Tamiflu even though at the time I felt fine but sure enough a few days later I was positive for Flu B but I never really got beyond feeling like a regular cold....overall there is a pretty big system setup around limiting and controlling the flu impact in the US every year.
 
Downeastnc said:
I think another reason people are less worried about the flu is there are vaccines that help reduce the impact.....we also have anti virals like Tamiflu that target the flu and offset the severity of it if taken in time, my son tested positive for Flu B back in Dec they put him and me on Tamiflu even though at the time I felt fine but sure enough a few days later I was positive for Flu B but I never really got beyond feeling like a regular cold....overall there is a pretty big system setup around limiting and controlling the flu impact in the US every year.
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yeah, there’s no real treatment for COVID19 right now, just test drugs
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
“According to one study of 45,000 confirmed cases in China, fewer than 1.0% of healthy people who contracted the COVID-19 virus died from the disease. But that percentage was around 6.0% for people with cancer, hypertension or chronic respiratory disease, 7.3% for those with diabetes and 10.5% for those with cardiovascular disease. Patients who were 80 or older were also at increased risk, with 14.8% dying.”

I saw this information published in several news articles. I’m just not sure who conducted the study.
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The study was conducted by the Chinese Center for Disease Control, and therefore must be taken with a massive grain of salt.

jamanetwork.com

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China—Summary of a China CDC Report

This Viewpoint summarizes key epidemiologic and clinical findings from all cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported through February 11, 2020, in mainland China, and case trends in response to government attempts to control and contain the infection.
jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com
 
Downeastnc said:
I think another reason people are less worried about the flu is there are vaccines that help reduce the impact.....we also have anti virals like Tamiflu that target the flu and offset the severity of it if taken in time, my son tested positive for Flu B back in Dec they put him and me on Tamiflu even though at the time I felt fine but sure enough a few days later I was positive for Flu B but I never really got beyond feeling like a regular cold....overall there is a pretty big system setup around limiting and controlling the flu impact in the US every year.
Click to expand...

3be4b2bc0f0ec77399b1f6af167fac03.jpg


Elderberry is no joke. That stuff works! You can’t take Elderberry and Tamiflu at the same time.



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tramadoc said:
I don’t normally agree with this guy because usually what comes out of mouth, much like Joe Biden, is complete jibberish, but he’s probably correct. If you look into death numbers in China which are total deaths of 25,000 people a day from all things (if true) the death toll is about 0.001% with COVID19.
Click to expand...
The death rate with the Coronavirus is 3.4%.
 
Jon said:
Outside China the death rate is much lower though I believe, below 2% and that includes Italy. He’s right assuming it’s not as bad as we think. The death rate will continue to go down as we get more positive ceases. The sample size is entirely too small to make a judgement on death rate in the United States. I’m pretty sure when this outbreak was beginning people were estimating the death rate to be over 10% and freaking out...it’s just a faulty way of calculating until we get enough positive tests.

I agree with your post though, great advice and thinking. The young need to take steps to protect the old.
Click to expand...

That's not correct. In Italy, the death rate is currently 3.4% per number of known cases. Sure it could be lower as more folks are infected, but currently we don't know.

Right now, per known US cases, we're at 6.7%.
 
The only way to get REAL numbers is almost impossible. I see the death rate 3.4% on this forum and a lot of other mediums. This is
Reported Deaths/Reported Cases. The REAL number is Reported Deaths/(Unreported Cases + Reported Cases) = REALITY. There are more than likely thousands and thousands of cases that will go unreported. Conclusion is that the REAL number will be significantly less than 3.4%.


Edit: The same can be said for FLU
 
SASQUATCH said:
The only way to get REAL numbers is almost impossible. I see the death rate 3.4% on this forum and a lot of other mediums. This is
Reported Deaths/Reported Cases. The REAL number is Reported Deaths/(Unreported Cases + Reported Cases) = REALITY. There are more than likely thousands and thousands of cases that will go unreported. Conclusion is that the REAL number will be significantly less than 3.4%.


Edit: The same can be said for FLU
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If it's a third of 3.4 percent, it's still ten times higher than the flu.
 
Any death rate right now is really not accurate. As mentioned above we don’t know how many mild cases are not being reported. We don’t know how many asymptomatic cases are out there but it could be 40-60%. And then a mortality rate with this isn’t really applicable as a whole anyways. If you say this has a 3% death rate, you are pretty much saying 3 out of a 100 will die which is not the case. If it hits normal people from 19-60 the death rate outside of Wuhan is probably what 0.05%? And most of those that died probably had other health issues. Then again the death rate for 70+ could be 10-20%. It all depends on who gets infected and that alone will greatly skew the numbers. If we as a nation can keep it out of the nursing homes and long term Health facilities the death rate will plummet.
 
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Downeastnc said:
I think another reason people are less worried about the flu is there are vaccines that help reduce the impact.....we also have anti virals like Tamiflu that target the flu and offset the severity of it if taken in time, my son tested positive for Flu B back in Dec they put him and me on Tamiflu even though at the time I felt fine but sure enough a few days later I was positive for Flu B but I never really got beyond feeling like a regular cold....overall there is a pretty big system setup around limiting and controlling the flu impact in the US every year.
Click to expand...

My point being...we have all these great things like vaccines for the flu and people brush it off as if thousands of people don't die from the flu every single year. The fact is that most people who get corona virus will probably get through with little trouble but we are acting like we are being attacked by the black plague...….Its ridiculous if you ask me but just my 2 cents
 
Not sure been posted. A confirmed case in Williamson County TN. Outside Nashville. County next to me. My wife school has already been notified.
 
NoSnowATL said:
3be4b2bc0f0ec77399b1f6af167fac03.jpg


Elderberry is no joke. That stuff works! You can’t take Elderberry and Tamiflu at the same time.



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I bought the vitamin c 1000mg jon says he takes. Should arrive today and be on standby next time I sense a virus anything coming on. Is this the same thing you just posted about above?
Dont think mine is derived from Black berries or black elderberry
 
NCSNOW said:
I bought the vitamin c 1000mg jon says he takes. Should arrive today and be on standby next time I sense a virus anything coming on. Is this the same thing you just posted about above?
Dont think mine is derived from Black berries or black elderberry
Click to expand...

I take black Elderberry 1000mg per day.


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I believe it’s not as bad as we’re thinking and as we get into spring and summer the cases will relax a little bit. The biggest thing is if your feeling a cold coming on go to the doctor don’t wait especially don’t go around the elderly and people who have a better chance of contracting it if your feeling sick. I also really hope the olympics don’t get canceled I look forward to it every 4 years.
 
If you don’t want to go in store to dig through the bins, bath and body has posted more online. The media ignores them because they have a lot on hand in stores. It’s also easy to make and soap&water works better. 1F0D543E-C3AF-427A-9A81-ED29414FE532.jpeg
 
Steven_1974 said:
That's not correct. In Italy, the death rate is currently 3.4% per number of known cases. Sure it could be lower as more folks are infected, but currently we don't know.

Right now, per known US cases, we're at 6.7%.
Click to expand...

What I said was correct. I said outside of China, meaning all counties combined and averaged together.. ALL cases outside of China. I wasn’t speaking of Italy specifically. That was meant to say:
“All counties including Italy”

Again, the 6.7% number is bogus. It’s a flawed statistical number. It holds absolutely no statistical significance.


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