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Pattern Caperil 2021

GaWx

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The typical westward shift is showing up on the 12Z Euro ens. to nobody's surprise. I think the chill will end up delayed but not denied and may take til 4/16 or maybe even 4/17 for the eastern SE. This delay would seem to be cold bias related.

Of course, it wouldn't actually be delayed if it does that. It just looks that way because the models fool us by having it too early initially.

Per 12Z Euro ens westward shifts vs 0Z, cold likely won't make it to E SE til 4/17-8.
 
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ryan1234

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12Z Euro ens: BN arrives into E SE 4/17, one day later than the GFS ens shows. Due to cold biases, it wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't actually get there til 4/18.

View attachment 81508
I mean, if you all want some severe weather, we're going to have suffer through some cold days after the frontal passage. It's a double edge sword but it's part of the season.
 

GaWx

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I mean, if you all want some severe weather, we're going to have suffer through some cold days after the frontal passage. It's a double edge sword but it's part of the season.
Yep, ups and downs/changes are perfectly normal whether or not there is severe since we're still not near the endless summer doldrums yet.

It would be nice to actually have a BN month for a change and there's some hope for April. My area hasn't had a BN month (defined as 2 or more BN) based on 30 year normals since Nov of 2019 and then April of 2018 before that. GW ftl.
 

Dewpoint Dan

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Yep, ups and downs/changes are perfectly normal whether or not there is severe since we're still not near the endless summer doldrums yet.

It would be nice to actually have a BN month for a change and there's some hope for April. My area hasn't had a BN month (defined as 2 or more BN) based on 30 year normals since Nov of 2019 and then April of 2018 before that. GW ftl.
I just dont understand why one would want below normal temps in a month that is very pleasant on average.
 

GaWx

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I just dont understand why one would want below normal temps in a month that is very pleasant on average.
I strongly prefer BN, especially Mar-Nov. That also implies lower than normal dewpoints. Here it is normal to have some unpleasantly humid and warm days. A rare BN month would minimize that.
 

SouthATLwx

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Hmmm, looks like we're overachieving on temps (despite the CAA), which suggests impressive mixing heights.

DFW is currently at 79*F. Might be able to snag a 80*F high after all today.
 

Dewpoint Dan

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I strongly prefer BN, especially Mar-Nov. That also implies lower than normal dewpoints. Here it is normal to have some unpleasantly humid and warm days. A rare BN month would minimize that.
I can certainly understand the humidity part !
 
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I just dont understand why one would want below normal temps in a month that is very pleasant on average.
The flip side I don't understand why anyone in this part of the country would ever hope for above normal temps, especially when above normal is the long term normal now. I'll take below normal any day I can get it. Hot and muggy is garantee for all of us. Today was too flipping hot for early April in my book.
 

Dewpoint Dan

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The flip side I don't understand why anyone in this part of the country would ever hope for above normal temps, especially when above normal is the long term normal now. I'll take below normal any day I can get it. Hot and muggy is garantee for all of us. Today was too flipping hot for early April in my book.
I can understand why some would want above normal temps in the winter. It can get quite chilly deep into dixie. Most people hate the cold.
 

GaWx

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I can't understand this. I don't understand that. We have different preferences, end of story. That's all that needs to be understood imo.

Meanwhile, the Happy hour GFS has an EASTWARD (you read that right) (colder) shift this time in the first 6 days fwiw. Back and forth go the models. Where they will stop, nobody knows.
 
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