Pattern Caperil 2021

[RBR71]

Go for it. I have a feeling we are going to see the threat father south than expected

Exactly what happened last week

 

[SD]

Exactly what happened last week

Indeed. Best threat is along the border but the secondary threat becomes any cells alone or as they start to pulse/propagate south along the outflow toward the i40 corridor

 

[cd2play]

In winter this is money but in spring this is wedges View attachment 81800View attachment 81801

In April it gives us 55-60 and rain. Yuck. .

 

[Myfrotho704_]

we didn’t sniff anything close to this in winter

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Southeast shield ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Southeast shield ? View attachment 81820View attachment 81821View attachment 81822

Love seeing such cold so close .. either we get overtaken by the chill or have some mighty boundary for severe weather .. either way it’s a win win for us in the SE

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Love seeing such cold so close .. either we get overtaken by the chill or have some mighty boundary for severe weather .. either way it’s a win win for us in the SE

Previous trough will probably ruin moisture return for the next one unfortunately

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Something about the day 10 euro and showing magical weenie patterns

 

[JakkelWx]

88 degrees here right now, high for saturday is supposed to be 93F.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

I think Glenn Burns always said to wait until April 15 to plant. Not sure if same applies for NC.

 

[Brick Tamland]

I think Glenn Burns always said to wait until April 15 to plant. Not sure if same applies for NC.

Same for NC.

 

[RollTide18]

Oddest SVR warning I’ve ever seen

 

[SD]

Oddest SVR warning I’ve ever seen

Gravity wave or wake low?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oddest SVR warning I’ve ever seen

Let me guess, super dry subcloud layer

 

[RollTide18]

Gravity wave or wake low?

Let me guess, super dry subcloud layer

Yeah NWS Mobile confirmed it to be a wake low, never seen a svr warning issued for just a wake low though, interesting for sure.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yep that’ll do it to

 

[SD]

Impressive

 

[SD]

Yeah NWS Mobile confirmed it to be a wake low, never seen a svr warning issued for just a wake low though, interesting for sure.

Yeah certainly rare I can't remember any right off hand

 

[NorthDFWwx]

DFW saw an intra-hour high of 80*F today.

Unfortunately, this is going to be the last nice and warm day for a while.

 

[SD]

You could probably just copy/paste 70/50 for the next 14 days after tomorrow here and end up with decent accuracy

 

[LickWx]

You could probably just copy/paste 70/50 for the next 14 days after tomorrow here and end up with decent accuracy

Why would anyone be mad about that

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why would anyone be mad about that

80/60 would be better but im definitely not complaining about 70/50

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

You could probably just copy/paste 70/50 for the next 14 days after tomorrow here and end up with decent accuracy

That's perfect weather. I would take 70/50 all year.

 

[NoSnowATL]

80/60 would be better but im definitely not complaining about 70/50

95/75 is much better.

 

[SD]

Why would anyone be mad about that

Yeah nothing wrong with mid January weather in April

 

[Myfrotho704_]

95/75 is much better.

Yeah I do simp for those 95/72 days with hella cape and me getting a warned storm as I should

 

[smast16]

Yeah I do simp for those 95/72 days with hella cape and me getting a warned storm as I should

I only want that high IF it's going to storm. Those shelfs can be something!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Bye bye SPV see you next November

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We’ll probably see a uptick in severe weather again given that towards later April/early May we see a return in a favorable sub-seasonal pattern

 

[SD]

We’ll probably see a uptick in severe weather again given that towards later April/early May we see a return in a favorable sub-seasonal pattern View attachment 81837View attachment 81838View attachment 81839

Interesting to see if the SER takes over in Mid May or if we can maintain some eastern troughing. Probably a little bit of a battle through the first half of May

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Interesting to see if the SER takes over in Mid May or if we can maintain some eastern troughing. Probably a little bit of a battle through the first half of May

The 2nd option would probably be some severe wx for us vs areas west

 

[SD]

The 2nd option would probably be some severe wx for us vs areas west

Eps is starting to get there by D10. I still think we try to wind up a big nor Easter by the end of the month but the eps makes me think we go straight into inland low tracks and severe

 

[NorthDFWwx]

This was Accuweather's forecast for Spring 2020.

If you replaced 2020 with 2021, it would still be spot on.

We are living in Groundhog's Day...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Eps is starting to get there by D10. I still think we try to wind up a big nor Easter by the end of the month but the eps makes me think we go straight into inland low tracks and severe

Yeah for d10 that’s a impressive signal for a roaring STJ

 

[SD]

Yeah for d10 that’s a impressive signal for a roaring STJ View attachment 81841View attachment 81842

That's problematic

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That's problematic

I can already here the talk about junkvection but that one cell that manages to get the environment lol with that upper level wind pattern

 

[LickWx]

Interesting to see if the SER takes over in Mid May or if we can maintain some eastern troughing. Probably a little bit of a battle through the first half of May

“ Winter battle zone “ modernweenie

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Some of the Hi-Res models shows us overachieving wtih temps today and tomorrow, attempting to get us to 70*F+ both days.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Already 75 I think 86 here today