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Pattern Caperil 2021

GaWx

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12Z GEFS: coldest run yet through virtually the entire run thanks to impressive -NAO. There's hope the SE actually won't have too intense a torch soon after the early April chill that's coming. Fingers crossed!
 

GaWx

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Likely overdone quite a bit due to persistent cold bias, but the idea is a chilly 4/2 afternoon, regardless:

ecmop_12_t2ms_us_h_0180.png

Look at Greenland!

ecmop_12_h500_nx_h_0180.png
 

JakkelWx

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It isn't going to be in the low 40s for highs. The coldest it'll be will probably be the low - mid 50s in the carolinas due to lack of snow cover up north. For one/two days.
 

Lickwx

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Looks like 4/2 would max out around 45 on the Euro. Wonderful April weatherView attachment 80665
Welcome to the top 3 coldest April days in history how may we help you... yeah no . The models have been overdoing cold like no other as of late . They are still stuck in winter mode .
 

Chazwin

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Welcome to the top 3 coldest April days in history how may we help you... yeah no . The models have been overdoing cold like no other as of late . They are still stuck in winter mode .
I don’t really think there is any sort of winter mode or anything like that on them, but they do have cold bias right now. That said, even with the cold bias, we’re probably talking about highs in 50-55 degree if it’s clear, which is a fairly significant cold shot for early April. Hopefully there is just enough cloud cover to keep things from bottoming out too much at night. After that, it will be interesting to see how long this -NAO persists... it won’t have as much effect on temperatures the further we go, but it could lead to a longer severe weather season if it hangs around like last spring
 

Lickwx

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I don’t really think there is any sort of winter mode or anything like that on them, but they do have cold bias right now. That said, even with the cold bias, we’re probably talking about highs in 50-55 degree if it’s clear, which is a fairly significant cold shot for early April. Hopefully there is just enough cloud cover to keep things from bottoming out too much at night. After that, it will be interesting to see how long this -NAO persists... it won’t have as much effect on temperatures the further we go, but it could lead to a longer severe weather season if it hangs around like last spring
Yeah perhaps not, it just seems they struggle more in early spring than they do at any other time of year
 

Lickwx

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I think I remember a few weeks ago that @Lickwx scolded us for saying it could get into the forties this time of year. Hmmm.
Hmmmmm misrepresenting what was said! You said it was commonplace , and the norm in fact for multiple highs in the 40s. All I did was correct that by showing that in fact , on average, April does not see any highs under 50.

@Sleet City USA your on climo bro probation if you keep this anti climo behavior going .
 

Bham 99

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Hmmmmm misrepresenting what was said! You said it was commonplace , and the norm in fact for multiple highs in the 40s. All I did was correct that by showing that in fact , on average, April does not see any highs under 50.
I don't think I said multiple days in the 40s even I know that doesn't happen...hmmm.. sounds like a swamp donkey is trying to change his story....hmmmmmm
 

Lickwx

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I don't think I said multiple days in the 40s even I know that doesn't happen...hmmm.. sounds like a swamp donkey is trying to change his story....hmmmmmm
Do I need to go back and find it lol? You very much did ! Not too mention I didn’t say we couldn’t see highs that cold, I was challenging your narrative that it was climo.
 

Bham 99

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Do I need to go back and find it lol? You very much did ! Not too mention I didn’t say we couldn’t see highs that cold, I was challenging your narrative that it was climo.
I did it for you.

You're a good one to be talking about being disappointed because it's not torch. It is normal for temperatures to be in the forties at times in the month of April for the 40th time.
 

SD

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Euro and EPS continue to agree on mid 40s for highs Friday at least they only have 1 night below freezing. Some of the recent cmc/gfs/icon runs have been ugly
 

Chazwin

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Definitely beginning to get concerned about the potential damage to berry and peach farms in the Carolinas on both Thursday and Friday nights as it appears that both nights could have at least several hours with temperatures below freezing
 
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